Posted: 10/10/2008 2:00:00 PM EST
6.0's are at 100-03.
Forget 5.5's, now down a point on the day at 98-11.
6.5's are at 101-18.
This is either the "beginning of the end" that the uber-bears warned against, or we're poised for an all-time bounce.
Recent history informs the latter as idealistically hopeful. Buckle up, buckle in, and buckle down for a rough remainder of october.
Don't forget though, that sub 6.5% par rates are still historically low, if that's any solace to you.
Posted: 10/10/2008 11:56:00 AM EST
As if there was any further to drop?
We're currently at the lows of the day with 5.5's at 98-21 and 6.0's down 9 ticks on the day at 100-10.
Some lenders may reprice for the worse by an eighth.
Posted: 10/10/2008 8:49:00 AM EST
"and wait till a few weeks go by..."
Well, perhaps those weren't the exact lyrics form that childhood favorite, but the theme remains.
The Ninja reports from conversations with several traders that any levered MBS purchases would be a negative carry due to market turmoil. So the bid is out the window, cash is king, and no one has any cash. So it's down, down, down in price until SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE (please!?) figures out a way to buy SOMETHING.
Welcome to deleveraging folks. MBS are not the only horse in that race either. Yesterday saw money come out of almost all sectors, except things like gold. Without even checking, one might also assume that bomb shelters, big barrels of water, canned foods, and firearms had a bullish day as well, oh!, and also ad-hoc asteroid demolition teams led by Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck. (we're long on Armegeddon these days).
Forget 5.5's today, theyr's at 98-26 (not a typo).
Much closer to par are 6.0's, currently at 100-10+.
Do you have overnight price protection? Do you not have several weeks to "wait it out?" Taking a look locking this morning could prevent you from further gut-wrenching, but only if you have access to yesterday's rates still.
As far as "how long will this last?" You and and a couple hundred million other enquiring minds would like to know. The problem is that many of those enquiring minds are capital market operatives themselves. So unfortunately, who knows... Best bets right now are lenders such as TBW with overnight price protection, or playing a lock bias with lenders who have a good, fair renegotiation policy.
Posted: 10/9/2008 1:59:00 PM EST
5.5's are still trading in a range that's hovering around 99-19.
Lenders that did not reprice for the worse earlier today, will likely be doing so soon, or by the end of the day.
No one has any money to lend, and those that have money to invest are not interested in lending or investing.
Something will have to "give" for things to change in the short term. There are rumors of another bailout.
Posted: 10/9/2008 10:19:00 AM EST
5.5's are at their lows at 99-19+ which is 17 ticks down on the day.
Reprice risk remains extreme for any lender that priced early.
Posted: 10/9/2008 9:48:00 AM EST
Hate to get back to you so soon, but our 5.5' have decided to jump off a cliff
Currently 99.18
If you have access to yesterdays rates, lock now.
Posted: 10/9/2008 9:29:00 AM EST
5.5's fell to the lows of the day at 99.25. Currently at 99.27
Jobless claims came in right on concensus at 478,000
full analysis to come
Posted: 10/9/2008 8:08:00 AM EST
5.5's were down slightly at the open, and 10 minutes into the session, they are down slightly less, and tighter to treasuries.
Currently off 2+ ticks from yesterday at 100-02+.
What strange days indeed to see 2 straight days of tightening. Yesterday saw unprecedented headline events including that global coordinated rate cut (sans Japan). In addition, there seems to be more economic news, especially concerning announcements of countermeasures for the banking crisis, than, at which, a stick might be shaken.
Volatily? Yes. That's a cliche now. Just stay tuned... Lenders are fairly hedged the past few mornings and reprices. By staying tuned here, you should be able to be well ahead of any reprices.
We have a somewhat action-packed day today and will be back with the scheduled data, unscheduled data, and the market's reaction. Until Then...
Posted: 10/8/2008 2:30:00 PM EST
MBS's have survived the earlier cliff dive and have improved to 100-03+, which is 9 ticks up from the lows. Some lenders who agressively repriced for the worse, might be willing to give a little back.
Nothing to be overly excited about, just keeping you up to date.
Posted: 10/8/2008 1:21:00 PM EST
down 30 ticks on the day at 99-26.
most everyone will reprice for the worse, even if they already have today.
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