http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08282026 Fri, 28 Aug 2026 21:22:11 GMT 6a920af8a6791958c5aa3ead Matthew Graham Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond market volatility. Today's Warsh speech was something of a direct hit--more than enough to sink the battleship of anyone hoping for lower rates to end the week. Warsh's hawkishness was limited to tough talk on inflation and an upbeat assessment of the economy. It wasn't terribly different from the late July press conference, but the market viewed it as upgrading the chance of a rate hike before the end of 2026. 2yr Treasury yields (more sensitive to Fed rate expectations than the 10yr) rose more than 12bps by the close. MBS shed 3/8ths of a point and mortgage rates crested 3 week highs. Market Movement Recap 09:04 AM Sideways to slightly weaker. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.68 10:18 AM MBS down a quick eighth after Warsh speech and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.686 (2yr up almost 7bps). 01:13 PM MBS down nearly 3/8ths and 10yr up 5.4bps at 4.724 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08282026 Fri, 28 Aug 2026 13:43:57 GMT 6a919f28a6791958c5a968aa Matthew Graham In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up another event that is almost guaranteed not to matter. Despite the familiar name, today's nonfarm payrolls data is not the NFP you're looking for (that NFP will be out next Friday). Rather, this is the preliminary annual benchmark revision which can make for big changes in the job count over the previous year, but which says nothing about the current state of the labor market. It's a statistical adjustment that is often blown WAY out of proportion by market watchers or politicians with axes to grind.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08272026 Thu, 27 Aug 2026 20:25:08 GMT 6a90ab68a6791958c5a7c2bb Matthew Graham Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, there's a decent amount of focus on Friday's Warsh speech at Jackson Hole simply because it's customary to focus on Fed Chair speeches at Jackson Hole. They're hit and miss in terms of delivering on volatility potential. There's nothing else of note on the econ calendar. With Monday being the last day of the month, we could also see momentum from early month-end trading. Other than that, fuel prices continue to set the tone more often than not. Today was no exception as an early afternoon surge in oil pushed yields to the highs of the day after reports that the White House rejected the idea of rekindling the June MOU/ceasefire. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims  203k vs 208k f'cast, 207k prev Continued Jobless Claims 1778k vs 1790k f'cast, 1796k prev Market Movement Recap 08:31 AM Modestly weaker overnight. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.2bps at 4.661 02:06 PM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3bps at 4.679 04:07 PM MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.67 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08272026 Thu, 27 Aug 2026 14:16:49 GMT 6a9055dca6791958c5a71a08 Matthew Graham While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing else on the calendar this week with any serious potential to upset the apple cart (and again, it's debatable that Warsh's speech is much more of a risk than random pre-weekend position squaring). But this is the bond market on Jackson Hole week, so the Fed Chair's speech is always a wild card simply because a few past examples have been relevant. In the meantime, bonds will take cues from fuel prices, corporate issuance, and any oversized tradeflows. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08262026 Wed, 26 Aug 2026 20:23:59 GMT 6a8f59e8a6791958c5a55a59 Matthew Graham Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness Bonds lost ground today, but it wasn't necessarily an unequivocally bad day. Yields were close to yesterday's lows just before this morning's PCE data came out and only moved higher after that. If the data had been better, it's possible today could have started on a stronger note. Oil price volatility was the other notable factor with prices moving up roughly $3 between 5am and noon ET. In light of both of those headwinds, bonds actually lost minimal ground and managed to hold below yesterday's high yields with multiple ceiling bounces at 4.67% in the 10yr. If we see weaker data and lower oil prices ahead, there's no reason to think bonds couldn't challenge this week's best levels again. Econ Data / Events Core PCE (m/m) (Jul) 0.2% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.1% prev Core PCE (y/y) (Jul) 3.3% vs 3.3% f'cast, 3.3% prev Durable goods (Jul) 1.1% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.3% prev GDPQ2 1.5% vs 1.5% f'cast, 2.1% prev PCE (y/y) (Jul) 3.7% vs 3.6% f'cast, 3.7% prev PCE prices (m/m) (Jul) 0.2% vs 0.1% f'cast, -0.1% prev Market Movement Recap 09:15 AM Weaker after PCE data. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.654 12:05 PM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.664 02:28 PM Unchanged from previous update Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08262026 Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:47:05 GMT 6a8eef44a6791958c5a487d7 Matthew Graham To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notably 0.246%, so it nearly rounded up to 0.3 vs 0.2), but headline inflation was a tenth of a point above the monthly and annual targets. Traders were apparently positioned for better news as the bond market's immediate response has been moderately quick sell-off. MBS are starting out down more than an eighth and 10yr yields are up more than 2bps from pre-data levels. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08252026 Tue, 25 Aug 2026 20:33:05 GMT 6a8e0ac0a6791958c5a2f790 Matthew Graham Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes The day ended as it began: with bond yields and oil prices dropping in unison based on hopeful headlines surrounding the Iran war. Perhaps the market was in the mood for a rally because the headlines weren't particularly specific or compelling. Oil prices are closer to the middle of their range for the month of August whereas 10yr yields are closer to the low end of the range. This could suggest a bit of a willingness to rally on the part of the bond market, but sustaining the rally would require continued cooperation from oil as well as econ data. Econ Data / Events Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Jun) 2.1% vs 1.7% f'cast, 1.6% prev CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Jun) 0.4% vs -- f'cast, 0.9% prev FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Jun) 0.0% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.3% prev FHFA Home Prices y/y (Jun) 2.3% vs -- f'cast, 2.2% prev Market Movement Recap 09:32 AM MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 3.9bps at 4.659 01:40 PM MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 5.5bps at 4.642 03:49 PM MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 6.5bps at 4.632 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08252026 Tue, 25 Aug 2026 14:06:31 GMT 6a8db084a6791958c5a2465f Matthew Graham No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an overnight drop in oil prices coincided perfectly with a drop in Treasury yields. The end.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08242026 Mon, 24 Aug 2026 20:56:57 GMT 6a8cbf1ca6791958c5a0a301 Matthew Graham Tune Out The Noise (Part 2) Last week, when Treasury announced higher per-operation limits for the buyback program, we advised tuning out the noise. Specifically, this meant that the announcement was not ever destined to be a material market mover or provide lasting relief for rates despite ample media coverage and the appearance of significance. It's more of the same to start the new week. Treasury sources threw out big numbers in reference to buyback operations by citing the Treasury General Account balance (basically, the government's checking account). Markets didn't care and neither should you. A big ramp in buybacks implies an equally big ramp in Treasury issuance. Buybacks can only influence the yield curve and not overall rate levels. Moreover, MBS run with the middle of the curve which might not see any benefit at all from excess buybacks in the 10-30yr space. Bonds rallied today due to lower fuel prices.  The end.  Market Movement Recap 08:59 AM Modestly stronger overnight. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.713 02:02 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.697 04:32 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.9bps at 4.703 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08242026 Mon, 24 Aug 2026 15:13:33 GMT 6a8c6e40a6791958c5a0019d Matthew Graham Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-end buybacks. TGA is Treasury's bank account. It gets money from taxes, Treasury issuance, tariffs, etc. Therefore, any way you slice it, Treasury bond buying = government spending, unlike Fed QE. At best, it can influence the yield curve, but it can't artificially suppress yields overall. This is why the bond market won't embark on a big, sustained rally in response to Treasury bond buying, no matter how big a deal financial media makes of the news. In today's case, it could be contributing to yield curve flattening, but the modest rally seen in the bond market is far easier to attribute to a decent drop in fuel prices overnight. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs