http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08282026 Fri, 28 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT 6a91d9b9260b93beb9adfdff Matthew Graham Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary policy. The Fed Chair almost always delivers a speech and that speech occasionally causes volatility in the bond market. This year was a classic example. Fed Chair Warsh's speech focused on inflation remaining too high and on the Fed's commitment to getting inflation back down to 2.0% as measured by the annual change in the PCE Price Index (currently at 3.7%). Even if we use the most charitable methods to estimate annual PCE prices, the index would still be in the 2.4-2.6% range. Those details don't really matter for today, however. What matters is that the market took away a hawkish message from Warsh and the bond market reacted immediately. Mortgage rates were fairly flat before that, but the average lender increased mortgage rates in response to the bond market movement seen after Warsh's speech.   The net effect was a move up to 6.81% for the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate--the highest in just over 3 weeks.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08272026 Thu, 27 Aug 2026 19:45:00 GMT 6a9097835f2f3fbe2834e293 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady to slightly weaker. The "weaker" part connotes higher rates, but the weakness was late in the day and too small for most mortgage lenders to do anything about it. What does that mean? Unlike the actual bond market, which can move every millisecond, mortgage lenders only change rates 1-3 times per day, and it's usually only once per day unless market volatility is high enough. Today's volatility didn't quite clear the bar. If bonds had lost slightly more ground, we might have seen a few lenders raise rates this afternoon. With that in mind, lenders are heading into tomorrow at a bit of a disadvantage. In other words, if bonds don't improve between now and tomorrow morning, the average lender will likely be offering higher rates tomorrow.  One other thing to keep in mind is that Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak around the same time mortgage rates come out. There's no way to know exactly what that will do to the market (perhaps nothing), but it does create some additional volatility potential. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08262026 Wed, 26 Aug 2026 19:29:00 GMT 6a8f4097b054fb4800dc32d9 Matthew Graham Intraday volatility in the bond market can make it tricky to track day over day changes in mortgage rates. Lenders publish the day's first rates based on bond market prices around 9:30-10:00am ET, but things can change if bonds move enough.  Yesterday, bonds improved enough in the afternoon for many lenders to offer lower rates. If we compare today's rates to yesterday afternoon's better examples, we're slightly worse off now. But if we compare to yesterday morning, we're slightly better. At times like this, if you're just looking for a general sense of how the rate landscape is evolving, it can be more useful to simply track underlying bond market trends. A 10yr or 5yr Treasury yield is a good approximation of mortgage bond movement. Whether we use Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities, both suggest rates should be almost exactly in line with yesterday morning's levels based on prices at the time of this article. Why, then, did I say that today's rates are slightly better than yesterday morning's? Simple! bonds have lost ground since this morning's mortgage rates came out. The implication is that if bonds didn't move between now and tomorrow morning, the average mortgage lender would likely offer slightly higher rates. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08252026 Tue, 25 Aug 2026 19:41:00 GMT 6a8df15bec294d11570da26e Matthew Graham Fuel prices continue dictating most of the day-to-day momentum for interest rates and today was a notable example. Early this morning, news reports suggested progress in the peace process via Pakistani mediators. Oil prices dropped sharply in response and bond yields followed the move. Bond yields correlate with mortgage rates. When yields are falling, mortgage lenders are generally able to offer lower rates than they otherwise would have, depending on the timing and size of the move.  In today's case, it was good for a 0.04% drop in average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates--resulting in the lowest levels in nearly a week.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08242026 Mon, 24 Aug 2026 19:59:00 GMT 6a8caa4c907cca0979efe82d Matthew Graham Mortgage rates are based on bonds, but whereas bonds improved slightly from Friday's levels, mortgage rates are microscopically higher for the average lender. The issue is timing. Mortgage lenders set rates last Friday during a time of day when bonds were at their best levels. In other words, today's improvement is only an improvement relative to Friday's closing levels. If we were to compare just the time of day when lenders set mortgage rates, bonds are flat to slightly weaker.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08212026 Fri, 21 Aug 2026 18:35:00 GMT 6a889b705d1d45f8c1708c4c Matthew Graham For all practical purposes, Friday's mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday's, but if we're splitting hairs, the average lender rose 0.01% to 6.77% for a top tier 30yr fixed.  While many news outlets continue focusing on the mid-week announcement regarding Treasury's bond buyback program, today's bond market volatility was unrelated. Current levels are close to where they were before Wednesday's announcement and that makes sense to anyone who Wednesday's market reaction as 'overdone.'  The upcoming week offers much more economic data in addition to potentially relevant comments from Fed Chair Warsh at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08202026 Thu, 20 Aug 2026 20:38:00 GMT 6a87677ca771311f320467c1 Matthew Graham While Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at the same time last week (6.76% vs 6.69%). Financial news continued to focus on yesterday's announcement of Treasury buybacks after Secretary Bessent spoke on CNBC this morning, but today's bump in rates had more to do with fuel prices. Treasury yields serve as an almost perfect proxy for intraday rate movement with 10yr yields often seen as the most common at-a-glance benchmark for mortgage rate movement (i.e. they tend to move in the same direction by roughly similar amounts). 10yr yields and oil prices were at the lows of the day at 1am. Oil rose fairly quickly through 8am ET and Treasury yields followed. Both peaked at exactly the same time and then remained broadly sideways all day. This isn't as scandalous or interesting as pretending today's rising rates had something to do with market backlash over the Treasury announcement, but it's the more accurate way to make sense of the day-over-day movement. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08192026 Wed, 19 Aug 2026 19:43:00 GMT 6a860a373673fa7ad630b667 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a critical consideration for bonds/rates.  The Treasury buyback news is more complex and highly oversimplified by the average piece of media coverage. Here are the details that matter: The original buyback program began in 2024 under the Biden admin when Yellen was the Treasury secretary It is not quantitative easing or "new money creation."  Treasury gets money from issuing bonds or via other federal receipts (taxes, tariffs, etc) The program was continued/expanded under Trump/Bessent Today's announcement increased the amount of longer-term Treasuries that can be purchased in any given scheduled buying operation. The goal of the program is to promote smoother functioning of the financial market, but it has a tangential benefit to certain interest rates. Because today's announcement focused on longer-term Treasuries, longer-term rates/yields fell the most. Shorter-term rates actually moved up (which makes sense because the money to buy more long-term bonds technically comes at the expense of short-term bonds, all else equal). On major catch for 30yr fixed mortgage rates is that the average mortgage-backed bond for those rates only typically lasts 5-7 years  on average. So even though a mortgage CAN last for 30 years, the market treats them more like 5 year bonds because "duration" is everything when it comes to bond market valuation. All that to say: mortgage rates fell, but not as much as 30yr bonds (which fell A LOT today).  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08182026 Tue, 18 Aug 2026 19:33:00 GMT 6a84b5c6b0406193597427e1 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bond market was actually in slightly better shape compared to yesterday--something that would normally be good news for rates. So what's the catch? As is often the case when bonds and mortgages disagree, the x factor is timing. Mortgage lenders prefer to release rates once per day (usually around 10am ET) and they only change rates if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move in either direction.   Bonds lost ground yesterday, but not enough for the average lender to go to the trouble of raising the rates set earlier in the day. As such, lenders had to adjust for that bond market weakness with this morning's offerings. Ironically, the opposite dynamic is playing out today with bonds improving versus opening levels, but not by enough for the average lender to drop the rates set this morning. Now for some context in 3 different levels: current levels are slightly below the mid-point of the past 4 weeks, but the past 4 weeks are at the top of the range seen over the past year. Lastly, the past year has been the the best 12 month stretch for rates since late 2022 and present rates remain below the mid-point of the past 4 years. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08172026 Mon, 17 Aug 2026 17:27:00 GMT 6a83453f8e245f0bfb9f349c Matthew Graham After ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation in U.S./Iran tensions is pushing fuel prices higher and bond yields continue to correlate. Bond yields correlate with consumer interest rates with near perfection. In mortgage-specific terms, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved up 0.02% today to 6.73%. This is still much lower than the most recent high of 6.85%, but not quite as low as last Thursday's 6.69%. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates