Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and Friday was the least active day of the week for bonds. There were no major economic reports to cause...
While it would be technically accurate to point out a slight increase in January's homebuilder confidence (officially the National Association of Home...
The US Census Bureau released its New Residential Construction report for December today. The report measures building permits, the start of the cons...
We’re more than halfway through January already, the MBA has lowered its 2025 projection to $2.1 trillion, and there is a sense of “wait and see” out ...
It always bears repeating that "predictions are for suckers" and if there were a hard and fast rule about what markets do in certain scenarios, trader...
After having a great day yesterday, mortgage rates were able to add another "good" day today. The net effect brings the average lender's top tier 30y...
While it was never going to be on the same level as yesterday's CPI in terms of market movement potential, Retail Sales was likely to be today's most ...
Do you know the interest rate on your loan? How about the age of your roof? Here in Austin, a big concern is too much growth: Austin has gained 1 mill...
We knew that today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was a hotly anticipated economic report that at least had the potential to give rates a big push, and ...
There hasn't been meaningful change in economic data that measures activity in the housing and mortgage markets. In a nutshell, activity has been drif...
The folks here in Austin are sarcastically asking, “Who’s in your wallet?” Hopefully not Jennifer Garner or Samuel L. Jackson. The Consumer Financial ...
On December 18th, one of the most striking takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference was the shift in the Fed's focus from the labor market t...
Mortgage rates officially hit the highest levels since May 2024 yesterday, even though the average was almost imperceptibly higher than last Friday's....
The Producer Price Index (PPI) may not be nearly as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it has proven capable of producing l...
“The older I get, the earlier it gets late.” It was early to bed last night for me, early to rise, since today we are heading to Austin, Texas for the...
Mortgage rates rose to the highest levels since May 2024 by the end of last week following a stronger reading on the jobs report. Technically, the sam...
“An economics professor was walking with a student when the student looked down and said, ‘Look! A $50 bill!’ The professor explained, ‘That can’t be ...
After last Friday's jobs report, the evaporation of Fed rate cut probability has been a common refrain. While it's true that there was an obvious shi...
2024 has been one of those "it is what it is" sort of years for activity in the mortgage market. There were signs of hope over the summer months as r...
Mortgage rates were already at 6 month highs earlier this week so it didn't take much of a push to send them up to new 7 month highs today. The push ...
In Los Angeles County, with 4,058 square miles of land (more than Delaware and Rhode Island combined) at least ten people have died, and more than 10,...
The morning trading is as straightforward as it is unpleasant. Nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations (256k vs 160k f'cast) and the unemployment rate ...
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market and bonds were on a shortened schedule today due to the federal day of mourning for Jimmy Car...
Unless something incredibly interesting happens in the next 3 hours, this morning's commentary will likely be the end-of-day commentary as well. Due ...
“My buddy’s wife complains about constantly being sexually harassed at work. He told her she can stop working from home and go back to the office if s...
For the second day in a row, mortgage rates have moved higher at a modest to moderate pace. Unfortunately, that's been a trend so far in 2025 and it's...
I can’t take credit for, “People don’t care about how much you know until they know how much you care.” Empathy and maintaining contacts are oh so imp...
Jobless claims data is normally a Thursday affair, but Federal economic data is not being released tomorrow due to the Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning (m...
We came into the current week knowing that rates would take cues from any clear cues in this week's economic data. In general, that means higher rate...
High hopes and crossed fingers may help one's outlook in advance of key economic data, but they are powerless once the data comes out. In today's cas...
“We all get the same 365 days. The only difference is what we do with them.” In 2024 a lot of lenders buckled down every day. Time to take a breather?...
The bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where they left off before the X-mas/New Year ho...
It is right around now that people give up saying “Happy New Year” to others, mostly because they’ve lost track to whom they’ve said it. Welcome back ...
Treasuries made modest gains in overseas trading, but yields are heading higher during domestic hours. There are two things working against us this m...
The official holiday dates may be in the rearview, but as far as interest rates and underlying bond markets are concerned, this was the last day of th...
Blessings, curses, enigmas, paradoxes, etc... The state of home price appreciation in the U.S. is all of the above. The positive case for home prices...
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) didn't publish updated weekly application numbers last week, which meant that this week's data had to play catc...
Today's ISM Manufacturing report was the only top tier economic data this week. While we wouldn't say it was "strong" by any means, it wasn't weak ei...
Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful
Friday may as well have been a 4th weekend day for the bond market. Volume and liquidity were obviously in holiday mode. Trading levels were basically...