Fri, Dec 20 2024, 4:44 PM
Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
After Wednesday's Fed-driven sell-off, it was unlikely if not impossible th...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 4:11 PM
The week's big story is still the big jump in rates that took place after Wednesday's Fed announcement. And while rates remain noticeably elevated on...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 9:54 AM
This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data. The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its pri...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 4:30 PM
Fairly Uneventful Follow-Up to Fed Day
Considering everything that transpired yesterday, today's follow-up w...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 3:50 PM
We received some anonymous feedback regarding recent rate commentary that serves as a good reminder that not everyone may be picking up what we're put...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 3:33 PM
Just in time for the big jump in interest rates seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, the latest Existing Home Sales data from the National Associa...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 12:04 PM
When I see a headline with “housing” and “crash” in it, I think it is merely clickbait, and the author is trying to attract readers. For example: The ...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 10:29 AM
The takeaway from yesterday's Fed announcement was twofold. First, the Fed is much closer to being done cutting rates than it anticipated in Septembe...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 5:07 PM
Dots and Powell Were Much Less Friendly Than Markets Expected
We knew the bond market was expecting a hawkis...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 4:19 PM
If anyone needed any further convincing that a Fed rate cut is no guarantee of lower mortgage rates, today is a great piece of evidence. Perhaps "gre...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 4:06 PM
Heading into the first part of December, mortgage rates were at their lowest levels in a month and a half. Much of the improvement from the recent hi...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 3:40 PM
The Census Bureau releases its report on New Residential Construction each month which offers 3 key metrics: building permits, housing starts, and hou...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have gene...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 11:59 AM
“When a woman says, ‘What?’ it’s not because she didn’t hear you. It’s because she’s giving you a chance to change what you said.” Things are always a...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 11:31 AM
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have been pushing back in fits and starts in early trading. This has been a more uneven process for MBS as...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 3:58 PM
Calm and Resilient as Bonds Wait For Powell and The Dot Plot
Whereas last week saw the bond market continue ...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been having a much calmer week compared to last week. Monday brought a modest decline versus last Friday and today's rates are ef...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 3:24 PM
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo publish the Housing Market Index (HMI) each month. The industry refers to this as "bu...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 11:20 AM
Number progressions can be deceiving and surprising. Thank you to Eric D. who reminded me of “The Wheat and the Chessboard” example, guaranteed to sur...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 11:05 AM
Yesterday, it was S&P Global PMI data. Today it's Retail Sales. Both were stronger than expected. Both failed to cause any lasting weakness in bond...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 4:22 PM
Bonds Hold Ground Despite Unfriendly Econ Data
If there was a prime directive for the bond market last week,...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 3:56 PM
Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from t...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 12:26 PM
Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session, and although domestic traders quickly erased the gains in the AM hours, the selling is currentl...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 11:47 AM
You don’t become cooler with age, but you do care progressively less about being cool, which is the only true way of being cool. This is called the “G...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 4:55 PM
Why So Much Selling in Bonds?
Without a doubt, it's been a frustrating and puzzling week for the bond market...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 3:13 PM
There's no easy way to say it: it was a bad week for mortgage rates. Actually, it was a bad week for interest rates in general and mortgage rates typ...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 12:15 PM
“They say that mafia members are nasty people. But while growing up, I lived next door to one mafia member, and he was actually a nice guy. In fact, e...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 11:42 AM
Bonds can't seem to catch a break this week. Data hasn't necessarily been unfriendly either with both CPI and PPI hitting forecasts at the core month...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 4:36 PM
Mediocre Data Has Done Nothing to Help Bonds
Granted, this week's slate of economic data isn't on quite the ...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 4:08 PM
It's been a bummer of a week for mortgage rates with modest to moderate increases every day so far. Adding insult to injury is the fact that there ha...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 11:58 AM
What? You’re a builder who’s short on nails? Well, bring in some folks from Japan… they don’t necessarily need them. Of the nearly 300 types of nails ...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 10:28 AM
This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected in year-over-year terms (3.4 vs 3.2 at the core level). Traders were mostly abl...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 4:16 PM
Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally
It was a day for "explanations" in the bond market with the morni...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 3:32 PM
Mortgage rates were having a pretty decent day at first. The bond market was only slightly weaker overnight (implies some upward pressure on rates), ...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 3:08 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association is out with the latest survey of mortgage applications and refinance activity led the charge this week. In fact, pur...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 11:42 AM
“I love Christmas lights! They remind me of the people who voted for (insert name of politician). They all hang together, half of them don’t work, and...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 10:52 AM
Today's headline and core CPI readings were both perfectly in line with forecasts. After the data came out, bonds rallied and Fed Funds Futures moved...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 4:13 PM
Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation
Bonds were arguably consolidating ahead of last Friday's jobs...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 3:34 PM
Between November 18th and December 6th, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved down from 7.08 to 6.68. A 0.40% drop is rather significan...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 12:03 PM
“To the paranoid people who check behind shower curtains for murderers: if you find one, what's your plan?” What’s the Fed’s plan? The Federal Reserve...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 10:40 AM
Yesterday's closing commentary also noted "inconsequential weakness," and there's not really a better way to refer to this morning's modest losses. O...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 5:02 PM
Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost a moderate amount of ground on Monday with 10yr yields moving back above...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week with an impressive drop to the lowest levels in more than a month and a half. Today's rates ended up being the 2nd low...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 11:52 AM
“Wi-Fi outages are the new snow days!” Without the internet or cable, would we return to relying on newspapers, radios, and network channels for news?...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 10:38 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr yields closed at 4.17% for 5 days in a row. While that's technically "resistance," we're not complaining considering that's...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:57 PM
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week. Has The Tide Turned?
After Thanksgiving week introduced a potential breako...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:29 PM
As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week's jobs report. Spoiler alert: they...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 11:51 AM
“Today’s three-year-olds can switch on laptops and open their favorite apps. When I was three, I ate mud.” Times change. Remember when homeowner’s ins...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 9:52 AM
We all know that today's jobs report is the most important economic data on an given month. We also know that a higher payroll count tends to be bad f...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 4:10 PM
Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight and did just a...
