Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI February 19th through March 3rd marked an exceptionally directional rally for bonds. The following day brought the big blow-up in German debt, and the start of the consolidation in US rates. Granted, if domestic economic data been weaker, the rally may have tried to soldier on, but after the jobs report came out near consensus, that was that.  As has been the case for several years, the next major report after the jobs report is CPI, and CPI is arguably even more important at the moment.  This isn't to say we're guaranteed to see a big reaction--only that the potential is there, should the data come in much higher or lower than forecast.  As for today, it was just another in the ongoing consolidation with bonds determined to move back to the higher end of the recent sideways range after moving lower yesterday. Econ Data / Events Job Openings 7.74m vs 7.63m f'cast, 7.508m prev Job Quits (higher is worse for bonds) 3.266m vs 3.197m prev Market Movement Recap 09:39 AM Initially stronger early in the overnight session, then selling steadily.  MBS down just over an eighth of a point.  10yr up 2.2bps at 4.232 01:29 PM Weaker into the PM hours but leveling off now.  MBS down an eighth on the day and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.227 02:26 PM 10yr yields are up 6.5bps at the highs of the day (4.276).  MBS down 10 ticks (.31)

March 11, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI February 19th through March 3rd marked an exceptionally directional rally for bonds. The following day brought the big blow-up in German debt, and the start of the consoli... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Ahead of Important Inflation Data With fiscal and geopolitical developments dominating the news cycle, it would be easy to forget that interest rates prefer to take their primary cues from economic data.  This is an important reminder considering tomorrow morning brings one of t... (read more) Rob Chrisman eMortgage Tech, Insurance Money Buyer, AI Tools; Webcasts and Training This Week “Buying eggs on the street and weed in the stores: the times they are changing.” Borrowers are certainly reacting to changes in rates as capital markets staffs are dusting off their renegotiation policies, explain early payoff penalties, and strategi... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.79% +0.07% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% +0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.21% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.19% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.99% +0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.39% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.21% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 3/11 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.21% +0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.63% -0.13 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.79% -0.15 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/6 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.93% -0.02 0.66 15 Yr. Fixed 6.31% -0.04 0.70 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.03% +0.07 0.53 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/19 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.74 +0.05 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.75 +0.06 UMBS 6.0 101.41 +0.09 GNMA 5.5 100.03 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 101.36 +0.02 Pricing as of: 3/11 11:52PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2721 -0.0087 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.935 -0.009 5 YR Treasury 4.023 -0.008 7 YR Treasury 4.152 -0.009 10 YR Treasury 4.271 -0.010 30 YR Treasury 4.594 -0.003 Pricing as of: 3/11 11:52PM EST Latest Video Consumers are changing how they're spending, says BofA’s Liz Everett Krisbe... White House is moving forward with 50% tariffs on Canada tomorrow A coming bout of stagflation could be challenge for the Fed, says KPMG's Di... Job openings see gains in January in a sign of labor market stability Around the Web Marketwatch Inflation worries resurfaced even before Trump ramped up tariffs. CPI report likely wont ease the angst. Calculated Risk Blog CPI Preview CNBC Consumer outlook sinks as recession fears take hold CNBC Job openings see gains in January in a sign of labor market stability Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 CNBC 2-year treasury yield retreats to lowest level since October amid recession fears Eye on Housing How Rising Costs Affect Home Affordability CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors weigh the state of the U.S. economy Eye on Housing Builders Profit Margins Improved in 2023 CNBC Kugler says Fed should hold interest rates amid inflation risks Calculated Risk Blog Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Eye on Housing Year-over-Year Declines for Construction Job Openings

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