The week's big story is still the big jump in rates that took place after Wednesday's Fed announcement.  And while rates remain noticeably elevated on the week due to that jump, they're set to end the week at slightly less elevated levels. Credit this morning's inflation data for that development! Part of Wednesday's Fed Day drama involved a renewed focus on inflation reports.  That added to anxiety because Friday's PCE inflation index is one of the two big inflation reports that come out each month. The bond market that underlies day-to-day interest rate movement is most focused on what's known as "core" inflation, which discounts the more volatile food and energy components.  If month over month core inflation is running just under 0.2%, annual inflation would eventually hit its 2.0% target.  Today's monthly core PCE came in at 0.1%, which was lower than the market expected. In year over year terms, there's more work to do, as PCE remained at 2.8%.  The market actually expected a 0.1% increase on the annual number. In general, when reports like PCE (or its counterpoint, CPI) come in lower than expected, it puts downward pressure on rates.  Today was no exception with the average lender getting back almost half of the ground lost on Wednesday.  Top tier 30yr fixed rates are still over 7%, but only just.

December 20, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Recover Some of The Lost Ground The week's big story is still the big jump in rates that took place after Wednesday's Fed announcement.  And while rates remain noticeably elevated on the week due to that jump, they're set to end the week at slightly less elevated levels. Cred... (read more) MBS Commentary Stronger Start After Cooler PCE, But Don't Expect Miracles This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data.  The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its primary focus away from the labor market and back toward inflation made PCE all the more inte... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.04% -0.10% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.04% -0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.43% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.42% -0.08 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.28% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.98% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.43% -0.09 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 12/20 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.43% -0.02% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.72% +0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.92% +0.08 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/19 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.21 0.69 15 Yr. Fixed 6.27% +0.29 0.77 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.77% +0.04 0.49 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/30 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.78 +0.26 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.78 +0.26 UMBS 6.0 100.54 +0.16 GNMA 5.5 99.26 +0.23 GNMA 6.0 100.66 +0.10 Pricing as of: 12/21 6:21AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.5147 -0.0560 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.307 -0.005 5 YR Treasury 4.378 -0.047 7 YR Treasury 4.462 -0.052 10 YR Treasury 4.515 -0.056 30 YR Treasury 4.719 -0.021 Pricing as of: 12/21 6:21AM EST Latest Video PCE data was better than expected and we're on path to get inflation to 2%:... Key Fed inflation measure shows 2.4% rate in November, lower than expected New York Fed President John Williams: Monetary policy continues to be restr... Positive yield curve is going to be a huge tailwind to regional banks, says... Around the Web Forex Live The lesson from Powell: It's kind of fallen apart CNBC Key Fed inflation measure shows 2.4% rate in November, lower than expected Reuters Fed's Williams says Fed remains on track for cuts, amid uncertain outlook Freddie Mac Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook December 2024 | Spotlight: Homeowner vs. Renter Spending CNBC November home sales surged more than expected, boosted by lower mortgage rates Calculated Risk Blog Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024 Reuters Fed's Goolsbee says policy uncertainty led to his shift on rate-cut path Calculated Risk Blog PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.8% YoY in November Calculated Risk Blog Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024 Calculated Risk Blog Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1% CNBC 10-year Treasury yield is little changed as investors await Feds preferred inflation gauge Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.3% in November; Spending increased 0.4% CNBC European markets set for lower open after US spending plan fails

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