Tue, Mar 11 2025, 3:56 PM
Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI
February 19th through March 3rd marked an exceptionally directional ral...
Tue, Mar 11 2025, 12:52 PM
Bonds were initially stronger at the start of overnight trading in Asia, but began selling off at a fairly steady clip almost immediately. By the sta...
Mon, Mar 10 2025, 3:44 PM
More Help From Stocks, But More Reluctance From Bonds
Up until just after 3pm ET, the stock market was on pa...
Mon, Mar 10 2025, 10:27 AM
Over the weekend, Trump was asked if he was expecting a recession this year. He replied that although he hates to predict such things, "there is a per...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 4:03 PM
Bonds Give Up AM Gains After Powell Speech
Bonds made it through the jobs report in good shape with modest g...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 10:20 AM
Today's jobs report was a mixed bag with the most important number also being the most boring. Headline job creation came in at 151k vs 160k, which i...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 4:07 PM
Decent Recovery as Sentiment Swoons Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds have made it to Friday's jobs report without ...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 11:40 AM
There are a few moving pieces to the bond market narrative on Thursday. The general backdrop consists of yield curve steepening (fancy words that mea...
Wed, Mar 5 2025, 3:47 PM
2nd Straight Day of Losses. Blame Data or Stocks?
We already saw the end of the bond market's 9 day winning ...
Wed, Mar 5 2025, 12:10 PM
Wednesday marks the return of market-moving economic data after Tuesday's lull. ADP Employment was up first and it came out much weaker than expected...
Tue, Mar 4 2025, 4:19 PM
Winning Streak Finally Ends, But it Could Have Been Worse
Take yesterday out of the equation and today's clo...
Tue, Mar 4 2025, 11:26 AM
While much of the recent improvement in the bond market can be tied to various economic reports, there's been more than a normal amount of improvement...
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 4:03 PM
Bonds Start Week Off With a Bang
After a weaker overnight session, bonds bounced back swiftly after this mor...
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 12:07 PM
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory with most of the losses seen right at the start of the overnight session in Asia. With it being th...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 4:16 PM
Bonds End The Week and The Month at Best Levels
Both MBS and Treasuries were easily at their best levels of ...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 12:06 PM
It's no secret that we don't view the PCE inflation data as being anywhere remotely as big of a market mover as CPI. Today's trading is adding anothe...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 4:14 PM
Trying to Shake Off Overnight Weakness After Mixed Bag of Data
Bonds came into the domestic session at sligh...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 12:30 PM
As of yesterday afternoon, bonds could seemingly do no wrong this week. Every opportunity for traders to circle the wagons and push back against the ...
Wed, Feb 26 2025, 4:28 PM
Bonds Can Seemingly Do No Wrong
Another day, another example of bonds ignoring the potentially negative cues...
Wed, Feb 26 2025, 12:01 PM
While the economic calendar may look a little busy today, there are, once again, no big ticket market movers in play. The last time data had an impac...
Tue, Feb 25 2025, 4:33 PM
Impressively Calm Rally Continues Amid General Growth Concerns
In the absence of the typical motivations req...
Tue, Feb 25 2025, 11:36 AM
They day begins with 10yr yields down more than 10bps and trading under 4.30% at times. MBS are up 3/8ths with 5.5 UMBS coupons getting close to par. ...
Mon, Feb 24 2025, 5:05 PM
Bonds Improved Throughout The Day, With and Without Stock Market Losses
Based on the movement at the end of ...
Mon, Feb 24 2025, 10:33 AM
After a strong finish last week, there was some natural risk that short-covering and position squaring added to the gains, thus increasing the chance ...
Fri, Feb 21 2025, 5:00 PM
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week
Bonds benefited from a one-two punch of economic data and stock market weak...
Fri, Feb 21 2025, 11:57 AM
MBS are very close to their February 5th levels, which were the best since the morning of December 18th before the Fed announcement (and dot plot) cau...
Thu, Feb 20 2025, 4:50 PM
Very Low Volatility After Early Morning Rally
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight sessio...
Thu, Feb 20 2025, 12:00 PM
There's an interesting little case study in this morning's market movement. Bonds had been sideway to very slightly weaker overnight, but began to ral...
Wed, Feb 19 2025, 4:30 PM
Deep Dive on Today's Misunderstood Fed Comments
Today's only potential big ticket event was the release of t...
Wed, Feb 19 2025, 10:34 AM
Bonds extended yesterday's selling streak in the overnight session, but not in an alarming or serious way. Momentum reversed at 9am without any clear ...
Tue, Feb 18 2025, 4:52 PM
Bonds Give Up Friday's Gains
Bond market volume was a little better than half of its recent average today--s...
Tue, Feb 18 2025, 11:33 AM
Traders have done a reasonably good job of making it back to the office after the 3-day weekend. Volumes are almost in line with last Tuesday (also a ...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 5:12 PM
Paradoxical Rally Gets Logical After Retail Sales
If yesterday's PPI-driven rally was a paradox, today's con...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 11:53 AM
What a difference the past two mornings have made for a bond market that was seemingly on the ropes on Wednesday. After yesterday's paradoxical (thoug...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 4:36 PM
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Bond Rally?
PPI may not be as heavy a hitter as CPI on average, but one c...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 9:07 AM
This morning's econ data included weekly jobless claims, which came in roughly in line with forecasts, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) which was a ...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 4:50 PM
CPI Came in HOT and Bonds Reacted Logically
There's remarkably little else to observe beyond this morning's ...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 11:25 AM
We know that bonds take a majority of their economic data cues from two reports: NFP and CPI. We knew that today's CPI was critically important in com...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 3:59 PM
What to Expect From Wednesday's Inflation Data
Bonds lost ground overnight in sympathy with European bonds. ...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 11:10 AM
With Tokyo closed for a holiday, overnight Treasury trading was limited to futures markets until 2am ET. Yields opened about 1bp higher in Europe and...
Mon, Feb 10 2025, 4:21 PM
Little Changed After Early Rally and Steady Selling
Monday ended up being a relative non-event for the bond ...
Mon, Feb 10 2025, 12:02 PM
Perhaps the most notable market-related headline over the weekend was Trump's pre-announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum (in addition to ex...
Fri, Feb 7 2025, 3:00 PM
Minimal Selling Leaves Focus on CPI
The first order of business this morning was to reconcile the weaker NFP...
Fri, Feb 7 2025, 10:15 AM
As always, the jobs report matters. Today, we're seeing an obvious reaction to a fairly minimal miss (143k vs 170k f'cast in the headline job count). ...
Thu, Feb 6 2025, 9:42 AM
Coming off yesterday's solid rally, the bond market underwent a modest correction in the overnight session. Most of the gains remain intact, but the ...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 4:03 PM
Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data
There are plenty of moving pieces at the moment when it comes to assi...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 10:40 AM
To say the very least, there are more moving pieces to consider at the moment when it comes to the narrative guiding volatility and momentum in the bo...
Tue, Feb 4 2025, 4:39 PM
Bonds Rally Back to Prevailing Range
The only moderately inconvenient part of the day was the morning hours ...
Tue, Feb 4 2025, 10:32 AM
Bonds initially drifted into slightly weaker territory in the overnight session, but began bouncing back just after 9am ET. All this in spite of a qu...
Mon, Feb 3 2025, 4:21 PM
In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines, But Broadly Sideways
If you are following along with intraday marke...
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