Tue, May 21 2024, 10:50 AM
Ever since the inflation data in Q1 proved to be less rate-friendly than we might have hoped, the Fed has been exactly as unfriendly as we might have ...
Mon, May 20 2024, 3:33 PM
Mostly Flat After Initial Weakness
There's a risk that a theme will emerge in the coming days, but a theme t...
Mon, May 20 2024, 11:16 AM
It's not too common to refer to a week with Fed meeting minutes as "super slow," but at the risk of complacency, how could the Fed possibly share any ...
Fri, May 17 2024, 3:31 PM
Moderate, Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost ground at a modest to moderate clip on Friday, but not for any...
Fri, May 17 2024, 11:12 AM
Friday's only scheduled economic report is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index. It is not considered a timely market mover...
Thu, May 16 2024, 5:00 PM
Gradual Weakness All Day And a Quieter Calendar Ahead
Today brought the last of the scheduled economic data ...
Thu, May 16 2024, 12:02 PM
It's the day after the CPI data and thus begins a concerted effort over the next few weeks to avoid compiling every piece of commentary as a simple co...
Wed, May 15 2024, 3:04 PM
Like The Last CPI Never Even Happened
The much anticipated CPI data was perfectly in line with expectations ...
Wed, May 15 2024, 10:29 AM
First off: the bond market rallied after the CPI data came out and remains in much stronger territory vs yesterday. That said, the more context we ad...
Tue, May 14 2024, 4:45 PM
Bonds Ready to go Big in Either Direction
If you only had 1 day per month to allocate to watching the bond m...
Tue, May 14 2024, 9:04 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) isn't in the same league as CPI when it comes to market movement potential, but as seen again this morning, it's no slo...
Mon, May 13 2024, 4:41 PM
What You See Today Won't Necessarily Be What You See Tomorrow
With essentially nothing on the event calendar...
Mon, May 13 2024, 11:17 AM
In 2023 and especially 2024, the first bullet point in the bond market's job description is to focus on Core CPI above all other economic reports. In...
Fri, May 10 2024, 4:24 PM
Higher Inflation Expectations Keep Yields Range-Bound
It's not as if bond yields stood any real chance of br...
Fri, May 10 2024, 12:36 PM
The following should be prefaced with the reminder that it is impossible to predict the future with much precision when it comes to bond market moveme...
Thu, May 9 2024, 4:43 PM
Bonds Boosted by Data and Well-Received Auction
Jobless Claims data doesn't normally move the market, but it...
Thu, May 9 2024, 11:09 AM
It is a starkly data-free week for all intents and purposes, but some economic reports are with us as always on a weekly basis. Thursday's initial jo...
Wed, May 8 2024, 4:44 PM
Token Pull Back Keeps Things Boring
Coming into this week, we expected things to be boring and sideways afte...
Wed, May 8 2024, 11:41 AM
One of the notions surrounding the Treasury auction cycle is that the bond trading community tends to build in a "concession" ahead of any given aucti...
Tue, May 7 2024, 4:06 PM
Strong in The AM, Weaker in The PM
Bonds improved fairly steadily in the AM hours. After an initial glut of...
Tue, May 7 2024, 10:25 AM
The theme of "waiting" amid an empty calendar will be played out by the end of the week (if it's not already played out from most of the past year spe...
Mon, May 6 2024, 4:57 PM
Uneventful Start to What May be an Uneventful Week
Without any big ticket events or major news headlines, it...
Mon, May 6 2024, 11:09 AM
Last week was definitely important for the bond market. The key takeaway was the Fed's acknowledgement of elevated inflation in Q1 coupled with the a...
Fri, May 3 2024, 5:18 PM
Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back
Whether you view it as a perfectly logical reaction...
Fri, May 3 2024, 12:46 PM
On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market. Depending on the context, it still is. ...
Thu, May 2 2024, 4:26 PM
Counterintuitive Rally And Asymmetric Risk
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed to...
Thu, May 2 2024, 12:20 PM
Thursday was always destined to be the least interesting day of current week due to its lack of meaningful calendar events, but that doesn't mean we c...
Wed, May 1 2024, 4:49 PM
Decent Data and Palatable Powell
Bonds managed modest to moderate gains after digesting all of the morning's...
Wed, May 1 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the un...
Wed, May 1 2024, 8:57 AM
Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data. Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 4:39 PM
More Ammo For a Hawkish Fed, But Data is at Least as Important
Bonds began the day flat but lost ground quic...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 12:26 PM
Steering clear of unfriendly economic data has been an increasingly challenging task for the bond market in April. While it might be an overstatement...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 4:02 PM
Decent Resilience in Spite of a Few Headwinds
Considering the volatility that may lie ahead, Monday ended up...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 11:17 AM
Monday is one of the quietest days of the week although there will be a potentially important update at 3pm when Treasury releases borrowing estimates...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 5:21 PM
Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers
Thursday's quarterly PCE numbers ...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 12:25 PM
WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit "mathy" and esoteric. The takeaway is that there's an actual way to reco...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 4:01 PM
Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data
Today's big surprise was the PCE price index compone...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 11:37 AM
It's a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a ...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 4:43 PM
Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data
Bonds were weaker in the overnight session on a combina...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 10:31 AM
The bond market has been decidedly more sideways after hitting longer-term yield highs last Tuesday. 10yr Treasuries have been a relatively narrow ra...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Straightforward Gains After PMI Data
Tuesday's session was infinitely more interesting than Monday's with th...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 11:56 AM
Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase "data dependent" has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to u...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 4:19 PM
Boring Monday Keeps The Focus on Next Week
Monday may as well have been a 3rd weekend day as far as the bond...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 8:47 AM
It's no secret that a vast majority of bond market movement these days occurs in response to a small handful of economic reports and the Fed's quarter...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 4:32 PM
Sometimes Sideways is The Best Case Scenario
Granted, there was a possibility that today could have been a r...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 10:06 AM
The overnight session began with a very clear flight to safety in stocks (sell) and bonds (buy) on headlines regarding increased hostilities between I...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 3:55 PM
Good News and Bad News About Today's Selling
The bad news is that bonds resumed their weaker tendencies toda...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 12:09 PM
After the best day in a month and a half on Wednesday, the bond market is back to its recent habit of selling off and moving toward higher yields. It...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 4:32 PM
Too Soon to Say Higher Yields Are Bringing Buyers?
Bonds enjoyed their best day in more than a month and a h...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 11:16 AM
The bond market is getting off to a stronger start today despite an absence of any new motivations in the news or economic calendar. In fact, the cal...
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