On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market.  Depending on the context, it still is.  But in today's case, it's much lower than the market expected and not a high enough number to justify the 4.6+ 10yr yields seen yesterday.  Bonds rallied instantly when the news... (continue reading)

The bond market--which dictates interest rates --had a generally favorable response to yesterday's update from the Federal Reserve.  While the Fed didn't cut rates, and while they're increasingly acknowledging that rate cuts are moving farther into the future, they still think data will evolve in a way that results in the next move being a cut as... (continue reading)