First thing's first before anyone gets too excited: yes, rates fell on Friday, but not significantly. The average lender is still a bit closer to the...
The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) tracks purchase contract signings that have not yet turned into Existing Home Sa...
This week's update on refinance application demand accurately reflects the fact that rates came into the week near their recent highs, but managed to ...
It's not uncommon for certain medications to come with warnings about avoiding certain activities like driving or operating heavy machinery due to the...
There are two dominant home price indices released each month in the U.S. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is responsible for the most all-i...
“What is the difference between the government and organized crime? Only one of them is organized.” (Suitable for any administration.) Government poli...
Inflation, via this morning's PCE price index, came in slightly hotter than expected, but bonds are rallying in response. There are a few ways to appr...
With the exception of Monday, which saw a medium-sized uptick in mortgage rates, the rest of the week has been fairly calm in terms of volatility. Unf...
Here in San Diego at the MCT Exchange 2025, with nearly 500 registrants, the agenda’s keynote speaker and one of the panels was composed of Fannie and...
If you're just joining us, here's a brief history of the last few decades as it concerns inflation and interest rates. Inflation was an overblown conc...
It depends what one's definition of "recent" is, but if it involves the past few weeks, mortgage rates were at their highest recent levels both yester...
The first 3 days of this week have all generally seen yields at the highest levels in a month (or perhaps in "at least 28 days" considering Feb's day ...
One of the key principles of mortgage rate movement has to do with the frequency of mortgage rate changes. Specifically, mortgage lenders prefer to u...
This week I head to San Diego for MCT Exchange 2025, and my email has been heating up. “Rob, are you hearing about a big jump in lock volume last week...
Bonds came into the domestic session in weaker territory after steady selling in Europe. The resulting yields were ultimately a few bps higher than t...
The average mortgage lender raised rates modestly on Monday morning--a logical move considering the weakness in the bond market over the weekend. Rat...
Bonds are starting the week in weaker shape. If you had to reduce that movement to one motivation, it would be the "risk-on" vibes following more news...
“A government survey has shown that 91 percent of illegal immigrants come to this country so that they can see their own doctor.” On a more serious no...
As is the case with a majority of housing and mortgage market data these days, the Existing Home Sales data from NAR is heavily dependent on context. ...
The Mortgage Bankers Association conducts a weekly survey on the level of mortgage applications, both for purchases and refinances. Both data series ...
The Census Bureau released its New Residential Construction report this week, frequently referred to by its principal component "housing starts" (a te...
The National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (aka "builder confidence") hasn't been in a purgatory of sorts, ever since t...
In terms of the market movement that underlies and dictates mortgage rate movement, today looked a lot like yesterday. Things started strong and fade...
Heading into this week's Fed announcement, we noted the consolidation pattern in bonds (the convergence of intraday highs and lows in an increasingly ...
“Elon is firing Twitter employees with bad posture. I have a hunch I might be next.” If I have a sprained finger, I don’t need a heart and lung transp...
It was actually a rather uneventful day for the bond market. That means it should have been an uneventful day for mortgage rates (because they're driv...
The eternal disclaimer: we should never flat-out expect a particular correlation between stocks and bonds, with limited exceptions. Yesterday's Fed an...
“My wife just left me. She says life revolves around baseball and she's sick of it. I'm quite upset. We were together for 7 seasons.” Say hello to the...
Heading into today, we knew the afternoon's Fed announcement was biggest potential flashpoint for interest rate movement, and that the movement probab...
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recen...
Today's only big ticket calendar event is the Fed announcement, but that is more like 3 separate events over the course of roughly 2 hours. The announ...
Tired of writing those pesky checks? Wait no longer: If you don’t want to send a check through the U.S. Mail, for whatever reason, there’s Deluxe Paym...
As we often discuss, mortgage lenders prefer to set their rates once per day. They only make changes when the underlying bond market makes a big enoug...
Recall 2 weeks ago that news of the incoming German Chancellor's ambitions to massively increase debt/spending led to the end of the bond rally in the...
The calendar pages flip. We’re in mortgage conference season again in hotels around the nation, and why not have a little fun leaving your quarters (e...
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market, and the bond market is closed for most of the weekend. As such, one might assume that Monday...
After improving modestly in the overnight session, bonds contended with the Retail Sales data at 8:30am ET. At first glance, it should have been help...
“My friend showed me a photo of a famous meteor crater in Arizona. It's amazing how close it landed to the Visitor's Center!” Here in Tucson, the weat...
What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation?
It was one thing when bonds were only modestly stronger after this morning's inflation data. But 10yr yields went on to drop 12.7bps to the day at t...