Mortgage rates have been plummeting, depending on your definition of the word.  To be sure, the past 2 months have no competition in nearly 3 years.  The past few days have been special in their own right.  Whereas there was cause for concern about the new year bringing a bounce for stock prices and mortgage rates, stocks haven't done much of anything in the context of their late-2018 volatility, and mortgage rates have dropped another eighth of a percentage point (or more, depending on the lender).

There are now lenders quoting 30yr fixed rates as low as 4.375% on top tier scenarios with the average lender back to 4.5%.  That's quite a jump from the 5.125% average at the recent highs (just 2 months ago). 

There's still risk associated with the new year, however.  Tomorrow's jobs report is still a potential flashpoint for volatility.  Make sure you have a gameplan to account for positive or negative outcomes tomorrow.  Things could be happening quickly fairly early in the morning.

Loan Originator Perspective

Rates moved lower again today, despite a robust ADP employment survey.  Stocks' continued swoon and DC uncertainty are making bonds attractive.   I'm floating applications closing for all but the most risk averse clients.  -Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today's Most Prevalent Rates

• 30YR FIXED - 4.5%
• FHA/VA - 4.25%
• 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.125%
  
• 5 YEAR ARMS -  4.25%-4.625% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

• Headwinds that had plagued rates for most of the past 2 years are slowly dying down.  The rising rate environment could flare up again, and some headwinds remain in effect, but the broader tone has taken a more optimistic shift.
  
  
• Highest rates in more than 7 years in Oct/Nov.  Lowest rates 8 months by the end of the year.
  
  
• This is a bit of a crossroads.  We may look back at Oct/Nov and see a long-term ceiling, or we may look back at early December and see a temporary correction before more pain.  Either way, it's one of the more hopeful positions we've been in for several years.

• Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.