Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:32 PM
Surprisingly Calm Reaction to Surprisingly Dovish Fed
With so much apparently at stake heading into today's ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:25 PM
The rate market was intently focused on today's announcement from the Federal Reserve. While many news headlines emphasize the Fed "holding rates ste...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain remai...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 11:39 AM
Anyone wonder what happens after someone steps away from mortgage banking? Well, after exiting Ellie Mae/ICE, Jonathan Corr finds himself involved in ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 10:49 AM
The Fed finds itself in an increasingly uncomfortable situation where the market has witnessed several successive months of inflation data that refuse...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 8:14 AM
After rising a cumulative 17 percentage points over the prior two weeks, mortgage application volume slowed slightly last week. The Mortgage Bankers A...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:26 PM
Ceiling Survives But Wednesday is The Test
Any trading day without a big ticket economic report or Fed annou...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged on Tuesday, capping a short but meaningful losing streak over the past 6 business days. During that time, the av...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 12:51 PM
Builder confidence rose for the fourth straight month and residential construction stats may now be trying to catch up. Both construction permits and ...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 12:15 PM
While there are several ways in which the trading environment of the past few years is more exciting than normal, it comes with one notable caveat: on...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 10:37 AM
One never knows what one will learn at a mortgage event, like yesterday learning from Lender Toolkit’s Alex K. that Collinsville, Illinois has the lar...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Technical Test
For all that we've talked about the 4.32% technical level and ...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 3:50 PM
Rates marched higher to the highest levels in March today, but most lenders are only microscopically worse off than Friday afternoon. In the slightly...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 11:05 AM
Lenders are refinancing borrowers who took out intermediate ARMs 3, 5, or 7 years ago and whose rates have gone up. Some here in Las Vegas, walking ar...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 9:43 AM
Ceilings, floors, pivot points, etc. Technical levels don't predict the future, but they can provide context for trends. In some cases, they can ser...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 4:49 PM
Back in late 2023, we got in the car with the Federal Reserve with the promise of a trip to our favorite place: the land of lower interest rates. In 2...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 4:42 PM
Quiet Conclusion to a Raucous Week
For a short while this morning, it looked as if bonds would break up and ...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 11:22 AM
Just once, I want a username and password prompt to say, “Close enough.” Speaking of technology, this weekend Robbie and I head to Las Vegas for the I...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 9:47 AM
This morning's line-up of econ data is certainly not the most relevant to the bond market, but the NY Fed Manufacturing index has registered an impact...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 4:40 PM
Data Calling Fed's Confidence Into Question
As the new year began, the late 2023 assumption of multiple rate...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 4:18 PM
Even though Tuesday's consumer-oriented inflation report (CPI) had the biggest potential to cause drama for rates, it was today's wholesale inflation ...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 11:46 AM
Apart from Tuesday (CPI day), today is this week's next biggest deal in terms of scheduled economic data. The trifecta included Jobless Claims, PPI, ...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 11:37 AM
Fun with numbers: Did you know that, at age 22, Billie Eilish has won twice as many Oscars (2) than 80-year-old Martin Scorsese (1)? (And yes, Samuel ...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 4:23 PM
Calmer Day of Losses. Data Resumes on Thursday
Without any notable econ data on tap, bonds were left to thei...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates are nowhere near their highs from a few short weeks ago, let alone the much higher highs from late 2023, but they are at the highest le...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 11:27 AM
Bonds are off to a weaker start today, but not in a major way and not due to any interesting developments. In general, there was some optimism headin...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 11:25 AM
To the best of my knowledge my cat Myrtle, despite being at the top of the food chain, has never hunted eagle… But who can resist a good live bald eag...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 8:54 AM
A surge in refinance applications drove mortgage application volume higher for the second straight time last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association sa...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 4:03 PM
Volatility After CPI, But Only Moderate Weakness
Heading into the 4pm hour, MBS are only down 6 ticks (.19) ...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 3:50 PM
Today brought the release of one of the most consequential economic reports that comes out on any given month: the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI me...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 11:17 AM
“I heard that 80 percent of car accidents occur within one mile of a person's residence, so I moved.” But it turns out that moving doesn't improve you...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 9:51 AM
It's been a weird morning so far with core CPI coming in at 0.4 vs 0.3 forecast--something that should have certainly sent bonds scrambling into weake...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 4:18 PM
Super High Potential Energy Surrounding Tuesday's Data
Monday proved to be the quintessential placeholder tr...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates hit their best levels in more than a month by the end of last week after moving lower for 4 straight days. If you could only know one ...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 10:56 AM
When I was a teen, I worked a variety of jobs but never at a fast-food joint. No one made much money working at Mickey D’s or Dairy Queen. Now, in Cal...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 10:06 AM
February wasn't a fun month for rates, largely thanks to a surprise uptick in core inflation. On that point, both CPI and PCE agreed, but many analys...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 4:26 PM
All in All a Pretty Logical Week
It seems weird to consider, but Friday's trading--and indeed, the week's tr...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 4:08 PM
It was a hotly anticipated week for interest rates due to the arrival of the first batch of big ticket economic data since the Inflation report that c...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 1:34 PM
Today's jobs report has proven to be one of the most extreme examples of competing narratives in the past year or so. The headline number wasn't too ...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 10:40 AM
“Horses have lower divorce rates. It's because they are in stable relationships.” Here on the Central Coast of California, there are plenty of horses ...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 3:53 PM
Bonds Definitely Daring Jobs Report to Surge
10yr yields are now decisively below the levels seen BEFORE the...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 3:21 PM
Since hitting 2 month highs last Tuesday, mortgage rates have mostly moved lower. The past 3 days have all seen solid improvements in response to eco...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 12:29 PM
Apart from Monday, which had no meaningful econ data, today was the best candidate for an uneventful day on what is otherwise an important data week. ...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 11:39 AM
“I saw a woman at Walmart with March Madness teeth... She was down to the final four.” No one is talking about 30-year mortgage interest rates heading...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 3:51 PM
Uneventful Gains Despite Apparent Market Movers
It was an interesting day for the bond market. Yields drop...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 3:37 PM
Conventional 30yr fixed mortgage rates in the high 6 percent range have been available months now, and that didn't change in the past few weeks when r...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 11:35 AM
Here in Southern California, there are plenty of swimming pools and tennis courts, but none of them belong to me. Under the header of, “Why didn’t I t...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 9:18 AM
It's understandably nerve-wracking for fans of low rates to see a congressional testimony from Fed Chair Powell on the calendar. Granted, some of tho...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 8:59 AM
Whether prompted by a tiny improvement in mortgage rates or the first stirrings of a spring market, mortgage activity reversed course last week. The M...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 4:32 PM
Gains Before and After Data
Today's big to-do was the ISM Non-Manufacturing data at 10am ET. Of the two ISM...