Fri, Nov 22 2024, 4:26 PM
Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway
After a decidedly abnormal 6 weeks beginning in early October,...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 12:03 PM
The bond market has been forced to take the victories that are within reach. As November winds down, the best victory we could have hoped for was the...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 4:52 PM
Another Flat Day, This Time With Data
While it would be an overstatement to say that bonds have fully outgro...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 12:13 PM
It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture. Bonds began the day in ...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 10:34 AM
There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday'...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:59 PM
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains
Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global ...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 10:31 AM
Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When ...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 4:33 PM
Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend
It was an uneventful Monday for the bond market. Economic data...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 11:10 AM
While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump's cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that econom...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 3:41 PM
Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week
This morning began like many other recent mornings with econo...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 9:28 AM
All 3 of this morning's 8:30am economic reports were stronger than expected, and the 9:15am report was right in line with expectations. Of these, Ret...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 4:34 PM
Powell Rains on Bond Market's Mini Parade
Today is a bit of a mirror image compared to yesterday. Bonds los...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 10:01 AM
The morning has been both straightforward and interesting. The straightforward part involved a moderate sell-off following stronger economic data. J...
Wed, Nov 13 2024, 10:20 AM
Bonds managed a moderate rally in response to this morning's inflation data. While it has since been mostly erased, it was as strong of a showing as ...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 4:35 PM
Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately)
Bonds sold off on Tuesday both during the domestic s...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 9:24 AM
In the run up to the election, we offered constant reminders that a 10bp move in Treasuries wasn't really a big deal, and that such volatility could b...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 6:14 PM
Back to Uneventful Already?
MBS are ending the trading day at almost perfectly unchanged levels--not the sor...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 11:41 AM
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" is an age-old aphorism in financial markets for a reason. It accurately speaks to the real and repeatable phenomenon w...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 5:12 PM
Breaking Down The Big Non-Fed-Related Rally
As intraday charts give way to daily charts in the coming weeks,...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains Since earlier in the year, labor market conditio...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 12:27 PM
This morning's only relevant economic data was weekly jobless claims. The headline was right in line with forecasts and the non-adjusted number keeps...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 5:29 PM
Does The Fed Still Matter?
Bonds sold off overnight as the reality of Trump's victory became apparent. Trad...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 9:45 AM
Heading into the election, we knew the bond market was losing ground in concert with improving odds of a Trump victory and red sweep. After being sur...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 4:54 PM
Bonds Brace For Election Results
It was an interesting round trip for the bond market today as overnight wea...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 11:08 AM
Last week could easily have left us with the impression that the bond market's love affair with economic data was put on hold until after the election...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 4:13 PM
Election Remains Dominant Source of Volatility
While the average day of the past few weeks has involved elec...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 10:08 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr Treasury yields had consistently closed at 4.27-4.28 last week. Now this morning, we're at 4.27-4.28 again. That's the sh...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 5:07 PM
Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 12k versus a median forecast of 113...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 10:06 AM
When the median forecast for today's jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 4:53 PM
Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market's Attention?
It's been a weird week so far with a crazy combination o...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 12:16 PM
If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 4:35 PM
Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data
Bonds lost ground today, but not as much as one might expect given ...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 11:26 AM
It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slight...
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 4:40 PM
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 10:18 AM
As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 5:16 PM
Bonds Doing What Bonds Do
Another week, another chance for bonds to do the only thing it seems like they kno...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 10:40 AM
After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From ...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 3:40 PM
Stronger Start, Weaker Finish
Bonds had a fine morning with overnight gains bringing yields in line with the...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 11:17 AM
Granted, we were by no means looking for big things from this morning's Durable Goods data, but somehow it still managed to underwhelm. That's not sa...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 4:56 PM
Better Balance, Finally
In the context of the first 3 days of the week, bonds pulled off a miracle today. M...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 10:31 AM
Thursday morning brought the week's only arguably important economic data in the form of Jobless Claims and S&P's PMIs. Both have a decent track reco...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Why Would Rates Care About a One-Party Sweep?
Our morning commentary resulted in widespread questions regard...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 10:13 AM
For those of you who already feel like you fully understand the message in Tuesday's recap, the next few days and weeks might get a little repetitive,...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 4:35 PM
Much Calmer, But Risks Remain
Bonds had a significantly calmer day in terms of day-over-day change. In fact...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 10:30 AM
Monday was frustrating for the bond market. It was a medium large sell-off that would have made more sense as a flat, forgettable Monday. The only th...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 4:48 PM
Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts
Every year there are a few days where bonds mo...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 12:16 PM
First off, there's no great explanation for the extent to which bonds are losing ground this morning. These days happen occasionally. Sometimes an e...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday
Bonds were technically a hair weaker in the overnig...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 11:02 AM
While the recent trend has been unpleasant for the bond market, at least it's logical. Apart from some uncertainty related to the election and forthc...
Thu, Oct 17 2024, 5:27 PM
Fairly Big Sell-Off, But Last Week's Range is Intact
Bonds dealt with a trifecta of unfriendly economic data...
MBS Market Alerts
