The best way to describe what occurs in the "Live MBS Updates" section of the MBSonMND dashboard is that it serves as a play-by-play commentary on the relevant shifts in market levels, breaking news, fundamental, and technical considerations that are combining to move MBS and broader bond markets.
In addition to that, as the live updates come out, the community discusses them in real time, asking us questions if necessary or commenting on a variety of origination-related topics like individual lender habits, guidelines, and other experiences that are helpful to others in the lending community.
But for now, I thought it would be the best snapshot of the morning to clip the past few hours of live updates so you can retroactively follow along with this morning's bond market battle to hold support after a raft of econ data. The top update is expanded and includes a paragraph, but keep in mind that each of those updates can be expanded on the dashboard for more information. After that, I'll include a chart that puts most of that discussion in context.
Follow THIS LINK if you want to learn more about the MBSonMND live dashboard.
Just as the title of this post suggests...benchmark 10s have found support in the middle of the recent range after stocks slide to new intraday lows.
MBS bleeding stopped for now. FNCL 4.5s are still in the 102 handle. Here are AQ's marks: Secondary Market Current Coupon = 4.144%. +73bps/10yTSY, +65bps/10yIRS, +213bps/5yTSY. Wider into the bear steepener as cash flows extend and vol catches a bid.
Calling reprices gets a little tricky here as some lenders were a little slow to price this AM while others published at their usal time. The earlier your lender priced...the higher the risk of reprices for the worse. If FNCL 4.5s fall below 102-00 reprices will be more likely across the board. The odds of this happening grow greatly if 10s break through 3.42% support.