MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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Pricing as of 11:01 AM EST |
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
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10:52AM :
Treasuries Pushing Bullish Limits Of Range. MBS Sideways
With respect to the previously discussed trend channel, 10yr note yields are at the lower end of that range at 3.3926. This rangebound behavior has not been enough to motivate MBS higher as FNCL 4.5's continue at 102-04 and have been range-bound within 2 ticks of that level all morning.
10:16AM :
Establishing A Range Ahead Of Fed Coupon Pass
3.4319 and 3.3946 (call it 3.43 to 3.40) mark a range that has contained 10yr notes so far this morning. FNCL 4.5's continue to favor the frequently visited 102-04 price level. The yield highs in 10's this morning at 3.43 in correspondence with the lows at 3.40 line up with highs and lows from the 21st to form a trend channel DOWN in yield. Yields would have to get solidly into the 3.42's to break this channel on the upside and into the middle of the 3.3's to break it bullishly. 3.40 is important resistance to improvement.
9:25AM :
Bonds Turning Positive,, 10's Breaking Into 3.3's
Benchmark 10's along with the rest of the yield curve have been on the rally path since 8:50, with 10yr yields now ticking into the 3.39's. 30yr bonds are performing best as the overall shape of the curve is flatter this morning. As you notice a price gain in 30's that seems relatively high versus gains across the curve, keep in mind that it takes more movement in PRICE on 30yr bonds to effect changes in yield versus the shorter end of the curve. In other words, with the 30yr up 14 ticks in price currently, vs. the 10yr up only 3 ticks, the change in respective yields is 2.5 bps versus about 1 bp in 10s. With 2yr notes UP 1bp, that makes the gains in the 30yr more understandable in terms of flattening and yield changes. MBS have benefited marginally from the rally, with 4.5 FNCL's up to 102-06, breakeven on the day
8:37AM :
No Economic Data Today. FOMC Announcement Wednesday
MBS FNCL 4.5's are trading between 102-03 and 102-06 so far this morning, currently on the lower end of that range. 10yr treasuries came into the domestic session at 3.41 and have since climbed to 3.426 though seem to have encountered a bit of support there. There is no scheduled economic data on today's calendar.
7:01AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
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Gus Floropoulos : "the sooner we do, the sooner the selloff may come "
Matthew Graham : "definitely within the range (3.27 to 3.5ish), less certain that we will move outside that range, but possible depending on read of FOMC and SOTU address tomorrow night"
Gus Floropoulos : "2 weeks of trading are bound to give us some type of swings...hopefully green"
Christopher Max : "Do you think we will see any real movement before next Fridays NFP?"
Matthew Graham : "we sometimes see some movement at that 11am hour on Fed POMO days"
Matthew Graham : "will conclude at 11am"
Matthew Graham : "Fed POMO happening right now"
Scott Valins : "as long as the appraiser doesn't give value to more than something like 10 of the acres"
Scott Valins : "hi Jill they wil"
Jill Statz : "does anyone know if Flagstar will lend on a property that has more than 20 acres?"
Matthew Graham : "looks like no particular reason other than the flatter curve Mike. Remember is take a lot more ticks in price to affect the yield of the 30yr, so if the rest of the yield curve is relatively unchanged and the curve is flatter, not uncommon to see the 30yr positive with the others red or unchanged. U can always look for odd discrepancies by pulling up the 30yr yield chart itself and seeing whether or not it has a similar shape to 10's and other spots on the curve"
Mike Drews : "any particular reason that the 30 RY treas. is running ahead?"
Matthew Graham : "nice MBS pivot bounce this morning on 102-03"