What a day!  The markets have opened stronger in MBS and treasuries which will likely give a nice lift to most morning rate sheets.  But there are some SERIOUS risks involved with current levels.  Additionally, the GSE-Reform white paper is out which we'll be covering in detail today.  It's just one of those mornings that feels "electric."  If you want to really experience that electricity on both the market level and by discussing the impending changes to mortgage guidelines, then you have to get yourself into the MBSonMND Dashboard TODAY. 

We've mentioned MBSonMND in the blog recently, but try not to push it too hard in this venue.  But if the goal of the MBS commentary is to keep you up to speed on the market-based changes and contribute in some way to your overall market savvy and success, then I would really be remiss in those duties if I did not urge you to come join us on the dashboard today.  The live discussion (like instant messaging but with 100's of originators from around the country) is blowing up right now.  It's exciting to watch.  The market is blowing up too, and as I said, potentially approaching risky waters. 

So whether you're more interested in seeing MBS and Treasuries trade in real time with full-featured mobile access and customized alerts, or you'd prefer to discuss the market and it's changing landscape in real time with other originators, you can do both in one place.  Bottom line, get in here!  Here's a link for more info on getting started with a 2 week risk-free trial.  Note: you won't be billed if you decide to cancel in the first two weeks.

In case it's too small to view effectively, here's the text of that live update:

Bond Market May Test Important Targets Today With a few more ticks of positive movement in bonds, the 10yr note would test the exceedingly important 3.636 level which has been FIRM resistance since 2/4. The corresponding level in FNCL 4.5's is 100-12, and we're only a tick away from it at the moment. The massive looming risk is that the recent consolidating pattern in bonds could be seen as another bearish continuation pattern (bear pennant in this case), given that the most significant SUPPORT level lies at 3.85. If bonds test and fail a break to better levels, that risk increases, and any gains on rate sheets due to the morning rally should be heavily considered from that tactical vantage point.

And here's another that just went live:

Caution: MBS Are Improved, But Treasuries Meeting Resistance With respect to the last live update, which mentioned the important resistance soon to be faced by bonds, we may be seeing that "test" play out right now. After rallying this morning , 10yr yields bounced at 3.638, which is almost our exact technical target. Whether or not yields make it lower today may have something to do with the upcoming Consumer Sentiment report at 955am, the last data of the morning. Be prepared for movements in either direction.

A longer term treasury chart gives a good picture of what I'm talking about here,

Why is this scary?  Because we've seen this same pattern recently...  Here's what the even longer term treasury chart looks like:

 

Please note!  Technical patterns like these DO NOT speak to the probability that something will happen in the future, but the red lines above act as "triggers" letting us know there is a probability of continuation in the direction of the breakout.