MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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Pricing as of 11:02 AM EST |
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
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10:47AM :
ALERT:
Sell-Off Becomes Full-Blown Following IMF's Comments on Spain/Portugal
We're now seeing the extent to which fear of European periphery contagion has recently been buoying bond prices. After the IMF released comments with a generally favorable tone regarding Spain and Portugal, including a confirmation that it has not received a request for financial assistance from Portugal, bonds weakened at their fasted pace of the week, moving from 3.43 to 3.48 in less than 5 minutes. MBS prices followed suit with FNCL 4.5's down 8 ticks from the most recent high. Current prices are down 4 ticks on the day at 101-23. Any lenders who priced at or before 10:30am are likely considering reprices for the worse unless things turn around quickly and at least to the tune of 101-26.
10:39AM :
IMF: Spain's Reform Measures Bearing Fruit
*** IMF HAS NOT HAD REQUEST FOR FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE FROM PORTUGAL-IMF SPOKESWOMAN *** PORTUGUESE AUTHORITIES ARE FACING 'DIFFICULT SITUATION' - IMF SPOKESWOMAN *** PORTUGAL ECONOMIC REFORM PROGRAM, FISCAL CONSOLIDATION ARE IMPORTANT STEPS THAT NEED TO BE CONTINUED-IMF *** IMF-ENCOURAGED THAT PORTUGAL'S MAIN POLITICAL PARTIES HAVE EXPRESSED SUPPORT FOR EU-AGREED FISCAL GOALS *** SPAIN'S ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS ARE DEFINITELY 'MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION'-IMF SPOKESWOMAN *** SPAIN'S FISCAL, FINANCIAL REFORM MEASURES 'SEEM TO HAVE BORNE SOME FRUIT IN MARKETS'-IMF SPOKESWOMAN
10:36AM :
ALERT:
Bonds at Weakest Levels of the Morning
Treasuries have backed up aggressively since 10am with yields moving from 3.42 in 10yr notes to 3.454. FNCL 4.5's are now down 1 tick on the day to 101-26. Any lenders who released rates early are at risk of repricing for the worse.
10:02AM :
DATA FLASH: Factory Orders Fall Short of Estimates
*** FACTORY ORDERS -0.1 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.5 PCT) VS JAN +3.3 PCT (PREV +3.1 PCT) *** DURABLES ORDERS REVISED TO -0.6 PCT FROM -0.9 PCT *** NONDEFENSE CAP ORDERS EX-AIRCRAFT REVISED TO -0.7 PCT FROM -1.3 PCT *** FACTORY ORDERS EX-TRANSPORTATION +0.1 PCT VS JAN +0.7 PCT (PREV +0.7 PCT) *** FACTORY ORDERS EX-DEFENSE +0.5 PCT VS JAN +3.0 PCT *** NONDURABLES ORDERS +0.3 PCT VS JAN +3.0 PCT *** COMPUTERS/ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS ORDERS +0.1 VS JAN -5.2 PCT *** TOTAL MANUFACTURING INVENTORIES +0.8 PCT VS JAN +1.5 PCT *** INVENTORIES/SHIPMENTS RATIO 1.26 MONTHS' WORTH VS JAN 1.25 MONTHS
9:52AM :
DATA FLASH: Chicago PMI Slightly Better Than Consensus
*** CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGEMENT INDEX 70.6 IN MARCH (CONSENSUS 70.0) VS 71.2 IN FEBRUARY *** CHICAGO PURCHASING MGMT NEW ORDERS INDEX 74.5 IN MARCH VS 75.9 IN FEBRUARY *** CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGEMENT PRICES PAID INDEX 83.4 IN MARCH VS 81.2 IN FEBRUARY *** CHICAGO PMI EMPLOYMENT INDEX 65.6 IN MARCH VS 59.8 IN FEBRUARY *** CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGEMENT PRODUCTION INDEX 74.2 IN MARCH VS 78.2 IN FEBRUARY *** CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGEMENT EMPLOYMENT INDEX HIGHEST SINCE DEC 1983 *** CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGEMENT PRICES PAID INDEX HIGHEST SINCE JULY 2008
9:26AM :
PIMCO Rethinking Decision to Dump Treasuries Already?
This headline just crossed newswires.....RTRS-PIMCO'S EL-ERIAN SAYS WILL "REVISIT" DECISION TO DUMP U.S. TREASURIES IF THEY GET CHEAPER.....(Reuters) - PIMCO would reconsider buying back U.S. government debt, including Treasuries, if the Newport Beach, Calif. firm sees value in them again, co-chief investment officer Mohamed El-Erian said on Thursday. El-Erian, who helps oversee $1.1 trillion at PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund manager, said his firm decided to sell out its position in U.S. Treasuries last month because "there was better value elsewhere."
"If the valuations of Treasuries get cheaper, we will revisit that" decision, El-Erian said at the Reuters Newsmaker event.
(Reporting by Jennifer Ablan and Walter Brandimarte; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)
9:16AM :
Gross says U.S. Treasuries have "Little Value"
If you're wondering why PIMCO is selling their Treasury holdings. Here's why: (Bloomberg) - Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said Treasuries “have little value” because of the growing U.S. debt burden. The U.S. has unrecorded debt of $75 trillion, or close to 500 percent of gross domestic product, counting what it owes on its bonds plus obligations for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, Gross wrote in his monthly investment outlook. The U.S. will experience inflation, currency devaluation and low-to- negative interest rates after accounting for consumer-price gains if it doesn’t reform its entitlement programs, he said.
Pimco “has been selling Treasuries because they have little value within the context of a $75 trillion total debt burden,” Gross wrote in the report published on Newport Beach, California-based company’s website. Congress “must make ‘debt’ a four-letter word.” The comment echoes Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor who recommended avoiding long-term fixed-income bets in U.S. dollars because the currency’s purchasing power will drop. Treasuries have handed investors a 0.1 percent loss this quarter, adding to a 2.7 percent decline in the final three months of 2010.
9:01AM :
Bonds Surge Following Jobless Claims
After Jobless Claims came in slightly higher than expected, bonds have accelerated the rally that began yesterday. FNCL 4.5's are already up 4 ticks to 101-30 and 10yr notes are 3.33 bps lower at 3.4107. This puts 10's in the thick of a band of yields that has been technically significant over the past two months, having seen among the highest incidence of support and resistance bounces.
8:39AM :
Geithner: inflexible currencies are biggest monetary problem
(Reuters) - Tightly controlled exchange rate regimes are the main flaw in the international monetary system and the solution is simple, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told a G20 meeting on Thursday. In a thinly veiled swipe at the Chinese hosts of the seminar of the Group of 20 wealthy and developing economies, Geithner said that countries should have flexible exchange rates and permit free flows of capital to be major players in the global currency order.
He also used his speech to call for a stronger International Monetary Fund and to defend U.S. policies, acknowledging that past failures had caused much damage but saying the government was aiming to stabilize debt levels to avoid future problems. The G20 seminar was spear-headed by France, which is pushing a bold reform agenda in its year-long presidency of the group, and was meant to be focused on ills in the monetary system. Geithner offered a straightforward diagnosis. While major currencies moved freely and most emerging economies were well along that path, there were still some with little exchange rate flexibility and extensive capital controls, he said. This asymmetry fueled inflation risks in the economies whose exchange rates are undervalued, magnified currency appreciation in others and also generated protectionist pressures, he added.
"This is the most important problem to solve in the international monetary system today. But it is not a complicated problem to solve," he said, according to the prepared text of his remarks.
8:32AM :
DATA FLASH: Jobless Claims Fall To 388,000
*** JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 388,000 MARCH 26 WEEK (CONSENSUS 380,000) FROM 394,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 382,000)
*** JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG ROSE TO 394,250 MARCH 26 WEEK FROM 391,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 385,250)
*** CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 3.714 MLN (CON. 3.700 MLN) MARCH 19 WEEK FROM 3.765 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.721 MLN)
*** INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.0 PCT MARCH 19 WEEK (PREV 3.0 PCT)
*** CONTINUED CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE OCT 2008
7:51AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
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Matthew Graham : "Today 07:04 - US JAN WHOLESALE INVENTORIES REVISED TO +1.0 PCT (PREV +1.1 PCT) Today 07:05 - US JAN WHOLESALE SALES REVISED TO +3.5 PCT (PREV +3.4 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "Today 07:00 - U.S. 30-YR FIXED RATE MORTGAGES 4.86 PCT MARCH 31 WK VS 4.81 PCT PRIOR WK-FREDDIE MAC "
Matthew Graham : "that's not to say we actually stay that narrow today, but it's the biggest source of gravity in the area"
Matthew Graham : "that's it JTB, I'm out for the day now, U got it covered... "
Edgar : "MG-I am very curious to see what happens to consumer rates on April 1. I know we've set up our comp to be very aggressive and I have seen the comp plan for one very large lender (who can also broker) and based on that (which I know is only a one on one comparison) we could have increased our comp by 50% and still had a more aggressive comp plan. Our company is of the belief that this new system will really benefit those that have very little to no overhead. Broker/Lenders with high operating "
JTB : "So is 3.41-3.42 a highly technical pivot point? Seems like 10s will be content to sit there until tomorrow and see which side of the fence NFP takes them."
Jason York : "not to take anything away from either MG or AQ, as they both know how I feel, but having this chatbox is also priceless, and it helps in so many ways"
Bernie : "Matty G and AQ rock!! Access to info and thier expertise is priceless"
Chip Harris : "MG, MBS on MND os the best resource I have ever had in this business. I have been using it for a couple years and it's made an amazing difference in my knowledge and my pocketbook. Love you guys!"
Thomas Quann : "Correct MG....and is why we are here....everyday"
Matthew Graham : "I mean, I was just thinking, how else could you be doing what you're doing right now? doesn't seem like it would be easy or cheap"
Thomas Quann : "MG...I would kiss you if you were here."
Andy Pada : "MG - I bet if MND spent a whole day on the loan compensation thing, I would have saved 10K on legal fees to review our comp. plan"
Ira Selwin : "The input from the secondary guys is especially helpful"
JTB : "MG--This place is #1."
Matthew Graham : "QUESTION: During this pivotal and tumultuous time, how do you guys feel about being able to chat in real time with LO's and Secondary guys from numerous different shops around the country? I mean, I see the level of chat activity this morning and am wondering how much more "in the loop" this makes you feel and if there's anything else you could be doing to match this level of interaction and dialogue on these topics?"
Adam Quinones : "market preparing for default!"
Adam Quinones : "oh wow..Portuguese 2s/10s curve inverted last night"