MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
97-08 : -0-06
FNMA 4.0
101-10 : -0-06
FNMA 4.5
104-15 : -0-05
FNMA 5.0
106-31 : -0-03
GNMA 3.5
98-25 : +0-00
GNMA 4.0
103-03 : -0-05
GNMA 4.5
106-14 : -0-04
GNMA 5.0
108-27 : -0-05
FHLMC 3.5
97-03 : -0-06
FHLMC 4.0
101-07 : -0-06
FHLMC 4.5
104-12 : -0-04
FHLMC 5.0
106-24 : -0-04
Pricing as of 11:00 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
11: 43AM  :  Why are Treasuries Outperforming Mortgages?
A popular question on the dashboard today has been "Why are mortgages doing so much worse than benchmarks?". Although a 0.90% rally in stocks has put added pressure on Treasuries as the day has progressed, which has helped close the performance gap between mortgages and benchmarks, production MBS coupons are indeed experiencing focused weakness today. In technical terms this behavior would be described as "yield spreads moving wider". In plain english, MBS yields are rising faster than Treasury yields (MBS prices falling faster). WHY? Several reasons can be cited but we don't want to add quantitative confusion to the mix so we'll keep it simple. Mortgages are performing worse than Treasuries because of profit taking. MBS had a great day yesterday and traders are taking gains off the table because the bond market is highly-susceptible to volatility at the moment. This leaves investors feeling nervous in general, to alleviate those anxious feelings accounts are simply moving some money into cash. We call it "flattening out a position". HERE'S A BETTER EXPLANATION OF YIELD SPREADS: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/117469.aspx
10:12AM  :  ECON: Wholesale Inventories Rise 0.8%
Stocks rallied on this news and bond prices moved deeper into the red. (Reuters) - U.S. wholesale inventories rose less than expected in April, held back by the biggest drop in auto inventories since December 2009, a Commerce Department report showed on Thursday. Inventories rose 0.8 percent to $447.2 billion in the first month of the second quarter, below economists' forecasts for a 1.0 percent rise. Automotive inventories, one of the biggest categories, fell 1.3 percent. Sales rose to $393.5 billion, the highest since June 2008. But the 0.3 percent month-to-month rise was much less than the 1.2 percent gain analysts had forecast. A 0.9 percent rise in both auto and computer sales was offset by bigger declines in categories such furniture, lumber, professional equipment and metals. The inventory to sales ratio rose slightly to 1.14. (Reporting by Doug Palmer, Editing by Andrea Ricci)
9:53AM  :  ALERT: Directional Alert: Rate Sheets Expected to Weaken
Although stocks have added little momentum to intraday strength, benchmark Treasuries are testing their highest yields of the day and "rate sheet influential" MBS prices are setting new session lows. The Fannie Mae 4.0 MBS coupon is currently -6/32 at 101-09. This is poor timing as many lock desks are taking down their MBS indications to generate rate sheets. Loan pricing will surely deteriorate as a result. 10AM data is just ahead, we will alert if conditions improve.
9:18AM  :  Builders Cut 2011 Construction Outlook
(WSJ) - Even the National Association of Home Builders’ top economist is sounding a bit gloomy these days. David Crowe, the trade group’s chief economist has lowered his forecast for home construction this year. Builders are likely to break ground on 582,000 homes this year, down slightly from 2010 and a far cry from a peak of more than 2 million in 2005, Mr. Crowe said Wednesday. He also forecasts that builders will start construction on only 431,000 single family homes this year—the lowest level of the housing bust. In an interview, Mr. Crowe said the start of the year was “much worse than I expected,” noting that overall economic growth was weak, the labor market grew less than forecast and consumer confidence hasn’t picked up. High gasoline prices, he said, are “just a joy-killer” that makes consumers less interested in purchasing a new home. Back in January, Mr. Crowe expected a much healthier rebound. At the time, he was forecasting builders would start construction on 575,000 single-family homes this year. The housing market has been a consistent source of weakness for the U.S. economy, and builders have been hit hard. U.S. home prices fell 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011, a new post-bubble low, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index released last week. Mr. Crowe forecasts that 320,000 new homes will be sold this year, just below last year’s levels.(Alan Zibel) http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/06/08/builders-economist-lowers-housing-outlook/
9:09AM  :  ECON: Trade Gap Narrows as Imports Tumble
(Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in April, as U.S. exports rose to a new record and imports from Japan tumbled more than 25 percent in the aftermath of its earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster, a U.S. government report showed on Thursday. The monthly trade gap totaled $43.7 billion, down 6.7 percent from a revised estimate of $46.8 billion in March which was originally reported as $48.2 billion, the Commerce Department said. Wall Street analysts surveyed before the report had expected the April trade gap to widen to $48.8 billion. The $3 billion drop in imports from Japan from March to April was the largest on record. U.S. auto and auto parts imports from Japan and other suppliers fell $2.8 billion, partly reflecting supply chain disruptions in the aftermath of the triple disaster. The narrower-than-expected deficit should be positive for second-quarter U.S. economic growth and follows a spate of other recent data that have raised concern about the strength of the U.S. economic recovery. The trade gap narrowed despite the biggest month-to-month jump in prices for imported oil in nearly three years. The average price rose to $103.18 per barrel, the highest since September 2008. However, the volume of crude oil imports fell, pushing the overall U.S. oil import bill lower in April. That, combined with the lower imports from Japan, helped trim total U.S. imports 0.4 percent to $219.2 billion, even as imports of foods, feeds and beverages set a record, the report showed. U.S. exports, buoyed by a weakening of the U.S. dollar, rose 1.3 percent to a record $175.6 billion, led by record shipments of industrial supplies and materials and capital goods and smaller gains for food, feeds and beverages, consumer goods and autos and auto parts. The closely watched U.S. trade deficit with China jumped nearly 20 percent in April to $21.6 billion. It continues at a pace to exceed last year's record of about $273 billion.
9:05AM  :  ECON: Jobless Claims Higher than Forecast
(Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, according to a report on Thursday that could reinforce fears the labor market recovery has stalled. Initial claims for state jobless benefits increased 1,000 to 427,000, the Labor Department said. However, economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims dropping to 415,000 from a previously reported count of 422,000. The rise kept first-time claims perched above the 400,000 mark for the ninth week in a row. Analysts normally associate a level below that with steady job growth. Fueling concerns about job creation, the U.S. government said on Friday the U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 9.1 percent in May while nonfarm employers added a paltry 54,000 workers to their payrolls. The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid slipped to 3.68 million in the week ended May 28 from 3.75 million. Economists had expected so-called continuing claims to edge down to 3.70 million from the previously reported 3.71 million. (Reporting by Lisa Lambert, Editing by Neil Stempleman)
9:03AM  :  ALERT: Choppy Bond Behavior Seen. Loan Pricing Likely Worse
Unexpectedly strong trade balance data sent a knee jerk shock wave through the bond market at 8:30am but rates are recovering from their brief blip and the early morning rally is extending. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in April, as U.S. exports rose to a new record and imports from Japan tumbled more than 25 percent in the aftermath of its earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster. The 10-year note yield jumped 2bps to 2.953% on the news but has since fallen back down to 2.933%. In unison with benchmark guidance givers, production MBS coupon prices declined quickly as the news crossed wires, but prices have since corrected. The Fannie Mae 30-year MBS coupon is flat on the day at 101-16. With the next report due out a 10am, we'd expect rates and MBS to take their cues from the stock lever. S&P futures are currently +4.00 (+0.33%) at 1281. While these intraday gains seem exciting for equity watchers, stocks are really just hovering around 3-month lows. Furthermore, stocks have already failed to hold onto intraday gains twice this week, which indicates an underlying bearish tone is present in S&Ps. Still, we must remain wary of this behavior as interest rate profit takers are looking for any reason to count their chips before the 30-year bond auction at 1pm. It could be a choppy morning. Right now rate sheets look like they'll be unchanged to slightly worse. We will alert if conditions deteriorate.
8:25AM  :  Stocks and Bonds Both Rallying Before Data
Benchmark Treasuries traded a bit weaker in the overnight session but are gaining strength ahead of U.S. econ data and a 30-year bond auction. The 10-year Treasury note yield is down another two basis points to 2.928% - its lowest level in 2011 - after closing at 2.949% Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury is down 2 basis points to 4.165%. By contrast, the two year yield is up two basis points to 0.401%. While mortgages are lagging benchmarks, MBS prices are in the green. The Fannie Mae 4.0 coupon is currently +2/32 at 101-17. Stocks seem to be doing better based on their day over day change, but the reality is equities are hovering around the week's worst levels and 3-month lows. The S&P 500 looks to open 4.5 points higher at 1,281.25, a pretty modest gain relative to more than five weeks of straight losses, including the past six sessions. The Dow is poised to open 42 points higher at 12,060. "The S&P 500 has now fallen in six consecutive sessions, the longest losing streak since the depths of the financial crisis, though the damage to this point has still been a relatively modest 6.2% from the late-April high," said economists at BMO Capital Markets. Global markets have been mixed. The ongoing session in Europe has the FTSE 100 and CAC-40 up by less than 0.1% apiece, while in Asia shares in Japan and Hong Kong were relatively flat. The outlier was China: the Shanghai Composite snapped a three-day streak and tumbled 1.7% on concerns of further government tightening. "Analysts said the Shanghai index may consolidate in the current range in the next few sessions as investors will move cautiously ahead of China's May macroeconomic data, which are scheduled to be issued next week," reported Dow Jones newswires. Light crude oil is 0.69% higher at $101.46 per barrel, while gold is trading 0.14% downwards at $1,536.60 per barrel.
8:02AM  :  New MBS Commentary Post

Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Caroline Roy  :  "Good Call! except I don't think I can convince them to order a 3rd appraisal. Can someone take a look at the appraisal to see if it would fly?"
Caroline Roy  :  "just had a deal blow up because it was "rural". Its freaking MONTANA!!!"
Jeff Anderson  :  "Does anyone else love it when you find out that the house your buyer is under contract for is determined to be in a flood zone? ONly house on the map for miles designated in Zone A. Good times."
Adam Quinones  :  "10s finding support at 2.96/97 pivot. Mortgages off their wides of the day. "
Adam Quinones  :  "now is also a good time to begin preparing your balance sheet for end of the 2nd quarter. Plus today is roll day."
Adam Quinones  :  ""Rate sheet influential" MBS experiencing some focused weakness after strong performance yesterday. "
Bert Swyers  :  "why such large losses with 10's barely down?"
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS- U.S. APRIL WHOLESALE SALES +0.3 PCT (CONSENSUS +1.2 PCT) VS MARCH +3.0 PCT (PREV +2.9 PCT) "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - U.S. APRIL WHOLESALE INVENTORIES +0.8 PCT (CONSENSUS +1.0 PCT) VS MARCH +1.3 PCT (PREV +1.1 PCT) "
Adam Quinones  :  "This is the alert we have in queue: Although stocks have added little momentum to intraday strength, benchmark Treasuries are testing their highest yields of the day which has pushed "rate sheet influential" MBS prices to new session lows. The Fannie Mae 4.0 MBS coupon is currently -5/32 at 101-10. This is poor timing as many lock desks are taking down their MBS indications to generate rate sheets. Loan pricing will surely deteriorate as a result. "
Adam Quinones  :  "choppy morning so far. "Rate sheet influential" MBS experiencing some focused weakness after strong performance yesterday. "
Andrew Horowitz  :  "vicious cycle"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "which would lead to even more"
Adam Quinones  :  "would lead to more strategic defaults."
Andrew Horowitz  :  "IMO a 10% drop would be disasterous"
Adam Quinones  :  "Yuck...RTRS- ECONOMIST SHILLER SAYS 10-25 PCT DECLINE IN U.S. REAL HOME PRICES "WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME AT ALL" "
Adam Quinones  :  "Treasury just auctioned $21 billion 10-year notes. The results were very average. The bid to cover ratio was 3.23 bids submitted for every 1 accepted by Treasury. Compare that to a 3.20 five auction average. The high-yield came in "on the screws" vs. the 1pm "When Issued" yield, indicating no price concession was priced-in during the auction itself. Dealers were awarded 41% of the competitive bid vs. their 41% five auction average. Directs added 8.35% of the competitive bid, which is actually 2."
Adam Quinones  :  "average but we gave positive remarks because of how expensive it was."
Adam Quinones  :  "exports moved higher and imports declined sharply. that paints a "less bad" picture for Q2 GDP "
Adam Quinones  :  "weakness is a factor of trade balance data."
Matthew Graham  :  "crazy market. was just going to solicit an explanation of why claims could be weaker yet we were still losing ground in MBS/TSYs. But looks like that may no longer be the case"
Matthew Graham  :  "US APRIL OIL IMPORT PRICE $103.18/BBL, HIGHEST SINCE SEPT 2008, VS MARCH $93.76/BBL, +33.8 PCT FROM APRIL'10 $77.13/BBL "
Matthew Graham  :  "US-OPEC APRIL TRADE DEFICIT $9.57 BLN VS MARCH DEFICIT $10.81 BLN "
Matthew Graham  :  "U.S.-CHINA APRIL TRADE DEFICIT $21.60 BLN VS MARCH DEFICIT $18.08 BLN "
Matthew Graham  :  "U.S. APRIL CAPITAL GOODS IMPORTS $41.81 BLN VS MARCH IMPORTS $41.24 BLN "
Matthew Graham  :  "US APRIL EXPORTS RECORD $175.56 BLN VS MARCH $173.39 BLN, IMPORTS $219.24 BLN VS MARCH $220.22 BLN "
Matthew Graham  :  "US APRIL GOODS DEFICIT $58.11 BLN, SERVICES SURPLUS $14.43 BLN "
Matthew Graham  :  "US APRIL EXPORTS +1.3 PCT VS MARCH +4.9 PCT, IMPORTS -0.4 PCT VS MARCH +4.2 PCT "
Matthew Graham  :  "US APRIL TRADE DEFICIT $43.68 BLN (CONSENSUS $48.80 BLN) VS MARCH DEFICIT $46.82 BLN (PREV $48.18 BLN) "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - US INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL TO 2.9 PCT MAY 28 WEEK FROM 3.0 PCT PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.0 PCT) "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 3.676 MLN (CON. 3.700 MLN) MAY 28 WEEK FROM 3.747 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.711 MLN) "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG FELL TO 424,000 JUNE 4 WEEK FROM 426,750 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 425,500) "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS- Thursday, June 09, 2011 8:30:00 AM RTRS - US JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 427,000 JUNE 4 WEEK (CONSENSUS 415,000) FROM 426,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 422,000) USJOB=ECI"