MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
Open MBSonMND Dashboard
FNMA 3.5
96-15 : -0-11
FNMA 4.0
100-18 : -0-07
FNMA 4.5
103-24 : -0-04
FNMA 5.0
106-12 : -0-02
GNMA 3.5
97-28 : -0-09
GNMA 4.0
102-05 : -0-07
GNMA 4.5
105-22 : -0-04
GNMA 5.0
108-18 : -0-01
FHLMC 3.5
96-10 : -0-11
FHLMC 4.0
100-16 : -0-07
FHLMC 4.5
103-19 : -0-05
FHLMC 5.0
106-08 : -0-02
Pricing as of 11:02 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
10:38AM  :  States Negotiating Immunity for Banks Over Foreclosures
(Reuters) - State attorneys general are negotiating to give major banks wide immunity over irregularities in handling foreclosures, even as evidence has emerged that banks are continuing to file questionable documents. A coalition of all 50 states' attorneys general has been negotiating settlements with five of the biggest U.S. banks that would include payment of up to $25 billion in penalties and commitments to follow new rules. In exchange, the banks would get immunity from civil lawsuits by the states, as well as similar guarantees by the Justice Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development, which have participated in the talks. State and federal officials declined to say if any form of immunity from criminal prosecution also is under discussion. The banks involved in the talks are Bank of America, Wells Fargo, CitiGroup, JPMorgan Chase and Ally Financial.
10:34AM  :  ECON: Home Prices Rose 0.4% in May; FHFA
(Dow Jones)- U.S home prices increased in May for the second- straight month, a government agency said Thursday, a modest improvement for the struggling housing market. Home prices rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's monthly home-price index. The results were better than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a 0.1% monthly increase. April's results were revised downward to a 0.2% increase from an initial estimate of a 0.8% increase. Compared with a year earlier, prices were still down 6.3%. May's index value was 181.8. A reading of 100 is equal to the price of homes in January 1991. The FHFA's index is calculated by using the prices of houses purchased with mortgages backed by government-controlled mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC). Despite the monthly increase, the ailing U.S. housing market remains one of the major weak spots for the economy. The index remains 19.6% below its peak in April 2007 and roughly equal to the level of January 2004. Sales of previously occupied homes in the U.S. fell 0.8% in June to a seven- month low, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. The median sales price, however, was $184,300, up 0.8% from a year earlier.
10:21AM  :  MBS, Treasuries Fall to Today's Weakest Levels After Philly Fed
MBS just made their most abrupt move down this morning, following the 10am economic data, which included Philly Fed and Leading Indicators. However, this data plays more of a supporting role to the star of today's show: the EU summit, which largely set bond-market weakness in motion. Domestic econ data and news was given an opportunity to "argue" against that weakness, but none of the arguments have been convincing. And so the steamroller continues to pave the path of least resistance to higher rates for now. MBS are at their lows of the day at 100-15, and 10yr notes fine themselves dancing around 3.0. Lenders who already released rate sheets won't want to look at MBS at these levels much longer before considering repricing for the worse, though it's probably too soon for most lenders. That means that unless the lender you're considering a lock with is one that characteristically reprices early and often, we'd probably wait this out a bit longer.
10:07AM  :  ECON: Leading Indicators Index Rises 0.3 pct in June
(Reuters) - A key gauge of future U.S. economic activity rose less than expected in June as headwinds from the debt ceiling debate and recent floods and tornado damage in some regions of the country kept growth moderate, the independent Conference Board said on Thursday. The board said its Leading Economic Index increased 0.3 percent to 115.3 after a 0.8 percent increase in May to a record 114.7, which was revised upward to 114.9. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to rise 0.2 percent. "The economy faced some recent unexpected headwinds," said Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board economist. "If these headwinds subside, the underlying trend of slow growth, as suggested by LEI, should be more apparent over the next few months." (Reporting by Margaret Chadbourn; Editing by James Dalgleish)
10:06AM  :  ECON: Philly Fed Factory Activity Picks Back up in July
(Reuters) - Factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region bounced back in July after unexpectedly shrinking the month before, but still remained at a weak level, a survey showed on Thursday. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index rose to positive 3.2 from minus 7.7 the month before. That topped economists' expectations for 2.0, according to a Reuters poll. Any reading above zero indicates expansion in the region's manufacturing. The survey covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. It is seen as one of the first monthly indicators of the health of U.S. manufacturing leading up to the national report by the Institute for Supply Management. (Reporting by Leah Schnurr, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
10:04AM  :  Rules for Financial Giants on Track: Bernanke
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke today on the Dodd-Frank Act. He made no mention of mortgage-related reforms in his prepared remarks. (Reuters) - Regulators will soon lay out rules governing financial firms so large their collapse could rattle global markets, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said. Bernanke, in testimony prepared for a Thursday Senate Banking Committee hearing, also said regulators are looking into potential gaps in last year's Dodd-Frank financial oversight law, including the oversight of money market mutual funds and the tri-party repo system. "The U.S. agencies are also working together to address structural weaknesses in areas not specifically addressed by the Dodd-Frank Act," Bernanke said. Efforts among the Fed and other agencies to align domestic and international regulations are going well, Bernanke said. The Fed is on track to put international bank safety standards known as Basel III into effect on schedule, he said.
9:34AM  :  Weak Housing Word Hunt. Can You Spot The "Stagnant?"
(Reuters) - Ingersoll Rand Plc (IR.N) reported a lower-than-expected quarterly profit on Thursday amid weakness in its residential unit that makes home air conditioners and locks, sending its shares down 6 percent in premarket trading. Ingersoll, which also makes industrial air compressors and security technology including Schlage locks, said remodeling and home building markets remained "stagnant." Earlier this week, United Tech, parent of Carrier, the world's No. 1 maker of heating and cooling (HVAC) equipment, also noted weakness in residential demand for air conditioners. "We're still only about 60 percent of peak demand and we're probably not going to get back to peak until we see housing pick back up," Greg Hayes, United Tech's finance chief, said. He joked, "If it touches the consumer, unless you put an Apple on it ... it's not moving."
9:31AM  :  Euro Summit: Some Nuts and Bolts of EFSF's Intervention Capabilities
(Reuters) - The euro zone bailout fund, the EFSF, will provide loans to Greece, Ireland and Portugal at a lower interest rate and for longer maturities, according to draft summit conclusions seen by Reuters on Thursday. Loans from the European Financial Stability Facility will be extended from 7.5 years to at least 15 years and the interest rate will be lowered from around 4.5 percent currently, in the case of Greece and Portugal, to around 3.5 percent, the draft document said. "We will provide EFSF loans at lending rates equivalent to those of the balance of payments facility (currently approx 3.5 percent) without going below the EFSF funding cost. "This will be accompanied by a mechanism which ensures appropriate incentives to implement the programme, including through collateral arrangements where appropriate," it said, a nod to Finland's demand for collateral against new loans. The EFSF will also be allowed to provide precautionary credit lines to countries in the euro area, including those that are not under EU/IMF bailout programmes, the draft said. It added that talks with the private sector on shouldering some of the burden of a second bailout package for Greece continue, with all options still on the table. "The financial sector has indicated its willingness to support Greece on a voluntary basis through a menu of options (bond exchange, rollover, and buyback) at lending conditions comparable to public support with credit enhancement," it said.
9:14AM  :  ALERT: MBS Getting Moderately Thwacked by EU Summit and Friends
There may be a "gang of six" in Washington, but an almost equally large and perhaps more disturbing gang is jumping in new members one by one this morning. The kingpin? Most likely the EU Summit. Although we're not experts on the subtleties and intricacies of the the periphery debt crisis across the pond, it seems like the EFSF agreeing to intervene/inject/loan is the central component of the summit damaging domestic bond markets this morning. Why is that? Keep in mind how much of the current strength in US Treasuries (which have brought MBS along for the ride) has come as a result of FLIGHT-TO-SAFETY buying stimulated by concerns that a collapse of EU Periphery would have serious systemic consequences. So naturally, anything that soothes those concerns will likely be unfriendly to bond markets. Risk on, risk off Daniel-San! Maybe the easiest way to think of it is that this morning's news about the EFSF intervention capabilities is, in some ways, similar to the Fed announcing various stages of bond buying and MBS purchasing. Remember that? Even before the first dollars were spent, markets moved fairly rapidly. Without being too dismissive about domestic econ data, you might almost say the other members of this morning's gang of bond-market enemies--like Jobless Claims--don't matter too much. Claims could have mattered more if they were farther from consensus, but the fact that they were close simply allows the focus to remain on Europe. MBS are down 6 ticks (6/32nds) on the day to 100-19, not too shabby considering the 10yr is spiking to the extreme weak side of it's 2 week range at 2.973. We saw 2.98's on the 15th. Even so, lower MBS and volatility in bond markets won't help rate sheets this morning. The next round of Econ data hits at 10am, as well as Senate testimony from Bernanke.
8:43AM  :  ECON: Jobless Claims Slightly Higher Than Forecast
Jobless claims rose to 418k this week, slightly higher than the 410k expectation. The report's internals largely counteract what might seem like a bond-market-friendly headline though. Continued claims fell to 3.698 mln from 3.748 mln in the previous week, and the insured unemployment rate fell from 3.0 to 2.9. Rounding out the positive internals (economically positive, which tends to be bond market negative, in general), the 4 week moving average of the claims headline fell slightly, from 424k to 421,250.

Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Adam Quinones  :  "agreed...gotta share both sides of the story though right?"
Matthew Graham  :  "and really not very different from past"
Adam Quinones  :  "market just taking path of least resistance"
Matthew Graham  :  "But just to make sure I'm clear on this, these are almost microscopic improvements"
Matthew Graham  :  "(specifically I'm referring to the 4 week moving average, the insured unemployment claims, and the continuing claims when I say "internals")"
Matthew Graham  :  "it's not that the internals were especially economically strong, but at least to some extent, they refute the headline coming in higher than expected."
Matthew Graham  :  "Fairs fair... we often have cited the crappy internals in the past to make a case for the bond market even when the headline has been stronger."
Matthew Graham  :  "don't forget the internals of that report too Jude"
JudeB  :  "Figures, jobless claims come in higher than expected and having no effect whatsoever thanks to Europe"
Dean Gorenflo  :  "that gets asked on every analyst call I've seen. Standard answer: "we believe we are effectively managing our portfolio and have set aside sufficient reserves"."
Adam Quinones  :  "yeh just wait until analysts start poking deeper into bank balance sheets....what is their REO worth???? "
Jason York  :  "http://money.msn.com/home-loans/housing-horror-worse-than-you-think-marketwatch.aspx?ocid=twmsnre"
Jason York  :  "that was the point they were making, about how some people are saying we are starting, when im reality, it is much further away"
Adam Quinones  :  "what recovery?"
Jason York  :  "did anyone read the housing article on MSN yesterday about the recovery?"
Adam Quinones  :  "rate mover: BRUSSELS, July 21 (Reuters) - The euro zone bailout fund, the EFSF, will provide loans to Greece, Ireland and Portugal at a lower interest rate and for longer maturities, according to draft summit conclusions seen by Reuters on Thursday. Loans from the European Financial Stability Facility will be extended from 7.5 years to at least 15 years and the interest rate will be lowered from around 4.5 percent currently, in the case of Greece and Portugal, to around 3.5 percent, the draf"
Adam Quinones  :  "yeh id say so. traders are bored. path of least resistance is higher...make some room."
Brent Borcherding  :  "So, are we dealing with range exhaustion here? Sure doesn't seem like there has been any news worth to support this...if there is, can someone recap?"
Adam Quinones  :  "the PIIGS"
Adam Quinones  :  "Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland"
Adam Quinones  :  "although id expect the Summit to ultimately end in another Summit "
Adam Quinones  :  "bond buyback program on the table ....this would likely stop the bleeding in peripheries "
Brent Borcherding  :  "I still see that a selective default is still on the table for Greece; how can this be bond US bond un-friendly? Claims still over 400K, some earnings good some not..."
Adam Quinones  :  "SPOOs up, Euro recovering vs. US$, EU debt spreads tighter, MBS outperforming rates. RISK ON! For now....."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL TO 2.9 PCT JULY 9 WEEK FROM 3.0 PCT PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.0 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 3.698 MLN (CON. 3.700 MLN) JULY 9 WEEK FROM 3.748 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.727 MLN) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG FELL TO 421,250 JULY 16 WEEK FROM 424,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 423,250) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 418,000 JULY 16 WEEK (CONSENSUS 410,000) FROM 408,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 405,000) "
Victor Burek  :  "here comes claims"
Adam Quinones  :  "(Reuters) - The White House signaled on Wednesday it could support a short-term increase in the U.S. borrowing limit for "a few days" if lawmakers agreed to a broad deficit reduction deal but needed more time to pass it. The move, a shift from President Barack Obama's previous position, reflects the growing political reality that time is short for Congress to pass a massive deficit-cutting deal before the United States runs out of money on August 2. A new proposal for long-term deficit reducti"
Adam Quinones  :  "(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is actively preparing for the possibility that the United States could default as a deadline for raising the government's $14.3 trillion borrowing limit looms, a top Fed policymaker said on Wednesday. Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, said the U.S. central bank has for the past few months been working closely with Treasury, ironing out what to do if the world's biggest economy runs out of cash on August 2. "We are in contingenc"
Adam Quinones  :  "(Reuters) - China's factory sector shrank for the first time in a year in July, a survey showed on Thursday, feeding worries among the country's main trading partners that its growth is unsustainable and could lead to a slump. The HSBC flash purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.9 in July, suggesting the manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest pace since March 2009, as monetary policy tightening and slack global demand weighed on the sector."
Adam Quinones  :  "(Reuters) - Germany and France are agreed that a selective default on Greek debt is possible, enabling private sector involvement to solve Greece's debt crisis, Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said on Thursday. Speaking in the Dutch parliament, De Jager said there were still a range of options for how banks would contribute to Greece's debt, including swapping existing debt below nominal value for longer-dated debt. "The demand to prevent a selective default has been removed. We can c"