The bases may not be loaded yet for MBS or our preferred directional guidance giver Treasuries, but at two runners are on, and both are taking their lead-offs.  For MBS, this means that Fannie 3.0s have extended above the 104-19 levels that have capped them so far this year (until yesterday) and that 10yr yields have inched below the mid 1.67's on several occasions this week and late last week.  Incidentally, both of these base-runners returned to base by yesterday's close and are ready for several pitches today.

The first big pitch will come from ADP Private Payrolls at 8:15am, a report that's been an increasingly accurate indicator of the official Non-Farm Private Payrolls that arrive on Friday morning.  Markets are still feeling out the correlation under the new ADP methodology, but it's generally "better" than it was, so we can expect more reaction to ADP until/unless it strikes out.  

The afternoon sees and even bigger power hitter in the form of the FOMC Announcement at 2pm, but sans Bernanke Press Conference and Forecasts.  At the very least, markets seem to be expecting no incremental increase in the urgency of exiting or tapering QE.  Indeed, such a thing would seem like a counterintuitive surprise given the crop of recent data.  Between the two all-stars, ISM's Manufacturing index stands as a solid contact hitter whose performance won't win or lose the game, but it could make things more interesting while we wait for the Fed.

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, Apr 29 2013 - Fri, May 3 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Apr 29

08:30

Personal income mm

Mar

%

0.3

1.1

08:30

Consumption, adjusted mm

Mar

%

0.1

0.7

10:00

Pending sales change mm

Mar

%

1.0

-0.4

Tue, Apr 30

08:30

Employment costs

Q1

%

0.5

0.5

09:00

Case Shiller Home Prices

Feb

%

0.2

0.1

09:45

Chicago PMI

Apr

--

52.0

52.4

10:00

Consumer confidence

Apr

--

60.0

59.7

Wed, May 1

07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

868.1

08:15

ADP National Employment

Apr

k

150

158

10:00

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Apr

--

50.9

51.3

10:00

Construction spending

Mar

%

0.8

1.2

14:00

FOMC Announcement

N/A

%

--

--

Thu, May 2

07:30

Challenger layoffs

Apr

k

--

49.255

08:30

International trade mm $

Mar

bl

-42.5

-43.0

08:30

Productivity Revised

Q1

%

1.9

-1.9

08:30

Labor costs Revised

Q1

%

0.4

4.6

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

346

339

Fri, May 3

08:30

Non-farm payrolls

Apr

k

150

88

08:30

Average workweek hrs

Apr

hr

34.6

34.6

08:30

Average earnings mm

Apr

%

0.2

0.0

08:30

Unemployment rate mm

Apr

%

7.6

7.6

08:30

Private Payrolls

Apr

k

168

95

10:00

Factory orders mm

Mar

%

-2.5

3.0

10:00

ISM N-Mfg Bus Act

Apr

--

56.0

56.5

10:00

ISM N-Mfg PMI

Apr

--

54.0

54.4

* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report

* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release

* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted

* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"