Tough day for the modern era of ultra-low rates in ultra-compressed ranges.  It feels like a long time until July 5th NFP and even longer until September's FOMC festivities.  The path between here and there is tremendously uncertain, even if it stands a good chance to get good guidance from NFP.  For now, however, the outlook is clouded by the smoke that hasn't yet cleared from the battlefield.  A long-standing bastion that many grizzled old warriors didn't think they'd be defending just yet--2.40% 10yr yields--was already swarming with enemy troops by the time trading started.  2.471 is the new high, and it let us know right from the get-go that all bets are off in terms of that long-term range.  What we do know is that trading is "low conviction" at the moment, and to offer up the same imagery we've used so many times after big moves, we're at that stage where we've just been rocked by a series of explosions.  This most recent one stands the best chance so far to be the end of the enemy bombardment, but we're too shell-shocked to even stand at the moment and too scared to call out for surviving comrades just yet.  Lots of traders are waiting for other traders to make more convicted moves before making their own.  That kind of uncertainty is a hallmark factor in perfectly triangular movements after a big break, as seen in the following chart.  No one REALLY knows what's going to happen next, but we've been beaten so badly it's almost easier to hope than fear any more.