As far as Fed days go, this one was pretty tame.  That's especially true if we consider the amount of hype and anxiety associated with this particular Fed day.  The total gap between highs and lows in Fannie 3.5 MBS was just over a quarter of a point.  That's the kind of intraday movement that occasionally happens for no good reason at all.

Taking the perspective a step further, the highs of the day were 6/32nds higher than yesterday's close.  That means that MBS lost less than an eighth of a point today!

Even so, losing ground may seem like somewhat of an insult considering the market hype would lead us to believe that everything would be just fine if the Fed maintained their "considerable time" verbiage.  Reality shows us just how much of an oversimplification that was.  This phrase was singled out as a representative of the market's broader concern, which is that the Fed would take further measured steps toward reducing accommodation. 

They accomplished this by officially laying out their exit strategy and also through the evolution of their forecasts.  In other words, the Fed is obviously remaining on the path of policy normalization.  On a final note, although it wasn't entirely unexpected, they also firmly announced that next month's meeting would mark the end of asset purchases.  I suppose there's something to be said for making it official.

All that having been said, let's keep in mind that we've constantly pushed back on the Fed being the only game in town right now!  Of course, the herd mentality surrounding today's announcement had to be respected, and we always want to be extra cautious when we're at the weakest levels in 2 months, but there are other market movers that have been in play.  These include European bond market spillover, corporate bond issuance, and geopolitical risk among other things.  The way these play out over the next two days could easily outweigh today's anticlimactic Fed news. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
97-22 : -0-03
FNMA 3.5
101-16 : -0-03
FNMA 4.0
104-27 : -0-02
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5690 : +0.0330
10 YR
2.6220 : +0.0330
30 YR
3.3680 : +0.0140
Pricing as of 9/17/14 5:18PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:34PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Near Weakest Levels After Yellen Press Conference; Reprice Risk Remains
2:50PM  :  Fed's New Normalization Principles and Plans
2:34PM  :  MBS Back Into Positive Territory Ahead of Yellen Q&A
2:02PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: First Move After FOMC is Negative; Reprice Risk
1:56PM  :  Quick Note Ahead of FOMC
1:11PM  :  MBS Break Into New Highs, But Movement is Inconsequential Compared to Past and Future
10:07AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Already a Consideration for Some Lenders
9:43AM  :  Bond Markets Maintain Same Consolidative Pace Ahead of Fed

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Tim Robinson  :  "Hey MG, you scooped BloomberTV with your link. They're about 30 seconds behind on their feed. "
Matthew Graham  :  "live broadcast events are slick."
Steve Chizmadia  :  "Locking looks to be the right call if your desks are still open "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED FORECASTS 2014 - GDP GROWTH AT 2.0 PCT TO 2.2 PCT (PREV +2.1 PCT TO +2.3 PCT), UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 5.9 PCT TO 6.0 PCT (PREV 6.0 PCT TO 6.1 PCT), CORE INFLATION AT 1.5 PCT TO 1.6 PCT (PREV +1.5 PCT TO +1.6 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED SAYS 14 OFFICIALS WOULD PREFER FIRST RATE HIKE IN 2015 (PREVIOUS 12); 2 IN 2016 (PVS 3"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - MEDIAN VIEW OF APPROPRIATE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE AT END-2015 IS 1.375 PCT (VS 1.125 PCT), END-2016 IS 2.875 PCT (PVS 2.50 PCT), LONGER-RUN IS 3.75 PCT (PVS 3.75 PCT) - FED PROJECTIONS"
Matthew Graham  :  "Forecasts now:"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED REPEATS WHEN DECIDING HOW LONG TO KEEP FED FUNDS RATE AT 0-0.25 PCT, WILL ASSESS REALIZED, EXPECTED PROGRESS TOWARD AIMS OF 2 PERCENT INFLATION, MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED REPEATS MAY KEEP FUNDS RATE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SOME TIME EVEN AFTER EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION NEAR LEVELS IN LINE WITH MANDATE"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED SAYS DOES NOT ANTICIPATE SELLING MBS HOLDINGS AS PART OF POLICY NORMALIZATION, IN FUTURE EXPECTS TO ONLY HOLD TREASURIES"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED SAYS WILL END REINVESTMENT ONLY AFTER FIRST RATE HIKE WITH TIMING TO DEPEND ON ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED SAYS WILL RELY PRIMARILY ON INTEREST ON EXCESS RESERVES TO CONTROL TARGET INTEREST RATE"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED SAYS TO REDUCE BOND BUYING TO $15 BILLION PER MONTH, SPLIT AS $5 BLN MBS AND $10 BLN TREASURIES"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED REPEATS HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY TO BE APPROPRIATE FOR "CONSIDERABLE TIME" AFTER ASSET PURCHASE PROGRAM ENDS"
Matthew Graham  :  "If my last chat didn't make sense to anyone, basically, if you see price changes that don't seem to jive, open that document and find the current month (in this case Sep-14). Then look to see if the notification date was yesterday. In this case, it is (Tuesday 16 in row 15, column C). This means that yesterday's closing prices for Ginnie Mae 30yr MBS were based on September coupons and today's prices are October coupons, thus making it look like we lost ground that we didn't really lose."
Matthew Graham  :  "Here's the Xcel doc with roll dates. Day after "notification" can have the distortion issues in day-over-day price changes. http://mndne.ws/N8MW9N"
Matthew Graham  :  "roll for Ginnie"