• Quiet overnight session and AM hours
  • unfazed by sharp gains in oil prices
  • bonds rallied into the afternoon and especially after the auction
  • 10yr yields tagged 1.72 resistance before leveling off into close
  • MBS gained 3 ticks

Bond markets had a great day--not necessarily in terms of outright gains, but insomuch as they continued to operate near the lower boundary of their current range.  In fact, 1.72% had been labeled as "max resistance" (kind of like a sub-floor below the floor) just a few days ago and 10yr yields hit 1.7210 following today's auction.

Is it ominous, then, that yields bounced right at that floor level?  Maybe, but it certainly doesn't have to be.  We've seen plenty of examples of rates "staging" near a lower bound before they break through.  Whether or not that's the case this time around remains to be seen, but the point is that an intraday bounce at the lows doesn't spell doom.

One thing's clear: bonds are playing their own game right now and refuse to be dragged around by other markets--especially oil and stocks.  If anything, it was stocks that followed bond yields lower this afternoon.  Oil isn't even in the running for correlation today.  Prices spiked following the 1030am inventory data and bond markets barely budged in acknowledgment.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-21 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
1.7350 : -0.0250
Pricing as of 5/11/16 5:36PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:50AM  :  Bonds Reacting to Oil Inventory Data With In-Range Bounce

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Sung Kim  :  "i had my hat on since last Friday"
Matthew Graham  :  "A, maybe A+"
aaron meyer  :  "rally hat on"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - HIGH YIELD AT LATEST 10-YEAR NOTE SALE WAS MORE THAN 2 BASIS POINTS BELOW ITS 1 P.M. WHEN-ISSUED LEVEL - REUTERS DATA"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. 10-YEAR NOTES BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.68, NON-COMP BIDS $31.05 MLN"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. SELLS $23 BLN 10-YEAR NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 1.710 PCT, AWARDS 30.57 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH"
Matthew Graham  :  "10yr auction preview: current yield expectation is 1.729, with the average refunding auction coming in 0.55bps lower. Bid to cover has averaged 2.57 and indirects just over 60%. If this is confusing, read this: Treasury Auction Jargon, Definition, and Significance "