Despite a stark absence of any truly inspiring events, interest rates have managed to put in two fairly serious days of movement. In today's case spec...
“I was gambling in Las Vegas; I took a little risk. Send lawyers, guns, and money, Dad, get me out of this!” Hopefully, no one heading to LV tomorrow ...
There were quite a few economic reports that would have been released this morning were it not for the gov shutdown. OK, well only 3 notable absences...
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds are trading at their best levels since September 17th. Of course there are different kinds of bonds, so w...
While the debate rages on about whether the three colors of candy corn taste different, at the other end of the tech spectrum, lenders are weeding out...
Stocks have made a bit of a round trip since last Friday when Trump's tariff comments sparked a big sell-off. Bonds benefited from that at the time. ...
Mortgage application activity declined again last week, though the drop was more moderate than the prior week’s pullback. According to MBA’s Weekly Ap...
Last week ended with mortgage rates dropping to their best levels since September 17th. Over the weekend, the underlying bond market maintained the ga...
“Where do amputees get prosthetics on a budget? The secondhand store.” Budget, stalemate, and shutdown news continues in Washington DC. The sun still ...
Bonds are flashing red on the screen (depending on when you look), but even at their weakest levels of the morning, we'd still consider this a stronge...
Mortgage rates saw their biggest day-over-day decline of the past several weeks today in response to unexpected news regarding additional tariffs on C...
Mortgage application activity declined again last week as refi demand continues pulling back after the surge in mid September. According to MBA’s Week...
The stalemate & shutdown continue, all but eliminating the government release of economic news. Recall that the U.S. Treasury posted a $345 billion bu...
At the start of the week, we noted Japanese political developments as a key reason for overnight losses on Monday morning. This had to do with Takaich...
It's getting pretty tough to weave an interesting narrative on mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks. During that time, they just haven't changed that ...
“Two lawyers walk into a pub. They order a couple of drinks and take subs out of their brief cases. They begin to eat. Seeing this, the angry pub owne...
With Jobless Claims on hold due to the shutdown, bonds are forced to endure another data-free morning. The calendar offered a glimmer of hope with a P...
Mortgage rates technically ticked a hair lower today, but it's more accurate to view them as being broadly sideways. Some lenders issued improvements ...
We’re sailing through autumn. Places like Seattle and Minneapolis are losing 3-5 minutes of sunlight a day. Donald Trump told Congress to end changing...
While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed sp...
Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow range for nearly 3 weeks with the last major move seen on September 17th and 18th following the Fed rate cut...
10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technic...
President Trump has recommended that publicly held companies only report earnings every six months instead of every three. Don’t stockholders deserve ...
Mortgage rates began the week right in line with their highest levels of the past 30 days. This sounds a bit more dramatic than it is because the pas...
Often the economy and general business trends are separate from management and business acumen. Like Block Buster, which at the high point had over 9,...
On paper, it was supposed to have been a sleepy session for bonds with nothing of note on the econ calendar. But in practice, we're seeing one of the ...
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable. But because the range has been so na...
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but re...
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still hig...
Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applica...
Here in Telluride, CO, after learning of my capital markets background, yesterday someone bluntly asked me, “Can one person slow or stop the United St...
With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat...
If we're splitting hairs, today's mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday's, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate...
We’re two days into the 4th quarter of the 2025, two days into another government shutdown, and… companies are relishing their September numbers. I ha...
As a reminder, economic data published by government entities is on hold during the shutdown. Today, that means no Jobless Claims (also no Factory Ord...
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take cues from economic data. Employment-related data is particularly important. The monthly jobs report f...
Come on… you don’t believe politics and mortgages are separate? Look at politicized government housing agencies: whoever is running HUD, whether it is...
Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have pr...
Seriously... No One Seems to Know
Today's most prominent feature was a large, rapid move in Fed Funds Futures and other short-term rate metrics. Longer term rates benefited as well, but short term rates...