Fri, Aug 1 2025, 5:07 PM
Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness
"Revision" is the word of the day as every armchair economist ...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 11:59 AM
Non-farm payrolls came in at 73k vs 110k, which is a pretty good thing for the bond market in and of itself. But the bigger story is in the net revis...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 4:47 PM
Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains
Bonds were slightly stronger in the overnight session and this morn...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 3:11 PM
Below is a table that consolidates the results of various econ reports as well as NFP precedents that speak to the odds of NFP moving higher or lower ...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 10:33 AM
While jobless claims and the Employment Cost Index can be market movers, today's biggest ticket in the 8:30am slot was the monthly PCE Price Index for...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 4:16 PM
Markets Expected More Dovishness From Powell
AM data was a mixed bag that left bonds slightly weaker on the ...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports have affected continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has continu...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 10:06 AM
There were two key reports at the start of trading today. The 815am ADP data was fairly forgettable, coming in at 104k vs 75k f'cast, and -23k previo...
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 4:33 PM
Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply
The bond market was in flow state on Tuesday wi...
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 10:35 AM
There's no mistaking the fact that bonds are trading in a boring, narrowing, sideways range in the bigger picture, nor could anyone claim that today's...
Mon, Jul 28 2025, 4:15 PM
A "No Reaction" Sort of Day
Granted, there were no big ticket economic reports on tap for Monday, but there ...
Mon, Jul 28 2025, 10:50 AM
Given that a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and EU was announced over the weekend, markets haven't moved much at all in response. 10yr yields w...
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 4:48 PM
Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing
Despite a few inconsequential ups and down...
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 12:04 PM
Bonds were initially stronger, then weaker in the overnight session. There was a bit of additional selling in the first hour, but none of it correspo...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 5:19 PM
Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling
This morning's Jobless Claims report was the week's most rele...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 8:47 AM
Jobless claims data continues to defy a majority of other labor market metrics in showing a remarkable lack of any signs of softening. In fact, the 4...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 4:55 PM
Broadly Calm Despite Modest Pull-Back
If anything about the present week required investigation and explanat...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 10:43 AM
The analytical theme this week has been to observe the market movement and then go scrambling for justification. Such is the nature of a week without...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 4:16 PM
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day
Bonds improved in the morning following comments from Bessent that gave ...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 11:23 AM
While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity. This can spi...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 4:26 PM
Uneventful Resilience
Monday's theme for the bond market was one of moderate resilience--at least for the lo...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 11:46 AM
It seems like only 2 weeks ago (because it was) that we encountered an entire week without any major events on the econ calendar. The present week is ...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 5:28 PM
Needle Threaded. Now What?
As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 12:02 PM
At the end of a week with a few big ticket economic reports and unexpected headline-induced volatility, who wouldn't like a break? Friday's calendar ...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 3:55 PM
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
If you had to guess at the bond market's response this morning based solely on th...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 10:52 AM
There were multiple economic reports on tap this morning (4 of them in the 8:30am slot), but the headliner on a Retail Sales day is almost always goin...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 3:48 PM
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum
Everyone loves a good free preview, but not all of the bond ...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 10:21 AM
Tuesday's CPI reaction was frustrating. Bonds rallied for an hour only to sell off for the rest of the day starting at 9:30am. Things are off to a di...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 4:08 PM
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of t...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 9:29 AM
If market watchers get out their magnifying glasses, they can certainly find some evidence of tariffs impacting inflation in various goods, but those ...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 3:27 PM
All Eyes on CPI
Bonds have sold off a bit so far in July, but haven't lost much more ground versus last Tues...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 10:33 AM
Monday is proving to be a good candidate for a bonus summertime weekend day so far. Volumes and volatility were low overnight and trading levels are i...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 5:09 PM
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact
Stocks sold off quickly in the overnight session in response to the announcemen...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 10:31 AM
In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports st...
Thu, Jul 10 2025, 5:07 PM
Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady
Bonds technically lost a small amount of ground today, but i...
Thu, Jul 10 2025, 11:33 AM
You would be hard pressed to find a week with less to offer in terms of scheduled economic data. In fact, it's not an overstatement to say that regul...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 4:30 PM
Correction to the Correction. Will it Last?
Hindsight is 20/20 and foresight may have been close enough this...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 10:09 AM
Anyone who's spent much time around MBS Live knows about our favorite mantra regarding predictions. Specifically, they are for suckers--at least in t...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 3:44 PM
Correction Starting to Level Off?
Even though very little changed during the course of the trading day, one ...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 11:26 AM
Amid a complete absence of actionable economic data in the new week, stocks and bonds have been left to focus on new developments on the tariff front....
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 4:19 PM
Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements
Bonds were moderately weaker to start the day and continue...
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 10:16 AM
Fresh off the rally reversal courtesy of last week's jobs report, the bond market now finds itself in a virtually data-free week with little else to i...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 3:25 PM
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was eve...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 10:23 AM
Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, t...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 3:43 PM
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP
The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the princ...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 9:54 AM
ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples ...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 4:06 PM
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds we...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 10:33 AM
Tuesday brings the week's first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somew...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 4:45 PM
Steady Gains in the PM Hours
It's common to see the effects of month/quarter-end trading most prominently in...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 10:14 AM
Month/quarter end trading is a somewhat esoteric and potentially frustrating concept for the typical market watcher because it seemingly violates the ...
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