Today, 9:33 AM
While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed sp...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 4:26 PM
Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory as yi...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 11:38 AM
10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technic...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 4:39 PM
Incidental Weakness But No Big Picture Change
There were no economic reports on tap today and no obvious mar...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 8:57 AM
On paper, it was supposed to have been a sleepy session for bonds with nothing of note on the econ calendar. But in practice, we're seeing one of the ...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 4:59 PM
Weaker Day, Stronger Week
Friday ended up seeing the bond market give up some ground with most of the weakne...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 10:12 AM
With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 4:04 PM
Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger
With the day's only relevant econ data on hold due to the shutd...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 9:45 AM
As a reminder, economic data published by government entities is on hold during the shutdown. Today, that means no Jobless Claims (also no Factory Ord...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 3:53 PM
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Week, But Still Generally Flat
Short version: bonds have been basically f...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 8:32 AM
Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have pr...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 4:12 PM
Gains Erased by Month/Quarter-End Trading
If it's the last day of a month and especially if it's also the la...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 11:25 AM
No new news on the probably government shutdown, but betting markets show increased odds, for whatever that's worth. The only reason to watch or care ...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 5:08 PM
Waiting on Details as Bonds Reinforce The Range
It was a forgettable trading day, but at least slightly stro...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 10:00 AM
Under normal circumstance, we look forward to the first Friday of any given month as the day that the jobs report takes a swing at sending the stronge...
Fri, Sep 26 2025, 10:36 AM
PCE may be the most relevant inflation report when it comes to assessing progress toward the Fed's 2% target, but it is not the most relevant report t...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 3:54 PM
Reasonably Resilient After AM Losses
In another straightforward trading session, bonds responded logically t...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 10:54 AM
It's been a fairly straightforward morning so far with economic data coming out much stronger than expected. While the reports in question are not in...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 4:06 PM
Weaker Thanks to 2 Kinds of "Supply"
At its core, the bond market is like any other financial market, and se...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 11:33 AM
It would be an overstatement to say that this week's econ calendar has been "active," but yesterday at least had unscripted comments from Fed Chair Po...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 4:15 PM
Modestly Stronger After No Whammies From Powell
Last week's press conference with Fed Chair Powell could be ...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 11:03 AM
Fed Chair Powell speaks today at a chamber of commerce luncheon in Providence. While the venue may not possess the gravitas of last week's press confe...
Mon, Sep 22 2025, 3:47 PM
Slow Burn With Little to Blame
Bonds started out sideways and lost a minimal amount of ground very gradually...
Mon, Sep 22 2025, 11:11 AM
Although the present week brings the release of PCE inflation for August, and although PCE is the most relevant inflation data when it comes to assess...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 3:31 PM
Uneventfully Sideways At Modestly Weaker Levels
Friday ended up being the least interesting day of the week ...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 11:23 AM
In your defense, perhaps you're not too bothered or concerned about the market/rate movement since Fed day. But if you are, here's some perspective. W...
Thu, Sep 18 2025, 4:36 PM
Will September Deja Vu Continue?
Rates rallied hard into last September 2024's Fed rate cut and then bounced...
Thu, Sep 18 2025, 9:28 AM
This morning's economic reports (jobless claims and Philly Fed) are not notoriously big market movers, but many analysts gave ample credit to Claims f...
Wed, Sep 17 2025, 4:44 PM
Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off
Of today's Fed events (rate announcement...
Wed, Sep 17 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first...
Wed, Sep 17 2025, 10:51 AM
The Fed rate announcement is at 2pm ET. A single 25bp rate cut is fully priced in to the bond market and that cut will not be responsible for any vola...
Tue, Sep 16 2025, 4:03 PM
Big Shift Toward 5.0 Coupons Continues
Mortgage rates have lurched rapidly lower in September as 5.0 UMBS ha...
Tue, Sep 16 2025, 10:02 AM
After last week's CPI data was taken mostly in stride, the only other potential economic data hurdle was this morning's Retail Sales report. Whereas C...
Mon, Sep 15 2025, 3:47 PM
Uneventful Rally. Retail Sales on Deck
Bonds began the week on a stronger note, but not for any glaringly ob...
Mon, Sep 15 2025, 11:25 AM
For all the time we spend pushing back on the notion that the Fed Funds Rate is a root cause for volatility in longer-term rates, that push-back alway...
Fri, Sep 12 2025, 3:43 PM
Incidental, Inconsequential Weakness Ahead of Fed Week
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory and ...
Fri, Sep 12 2025, 11:11 AM
Bonds began the week with 10yr at 4.07 before rallying down to 4.04 by Monday's close. Now on Friday, we're opening at 4.06 and we haven't spent much...
Thu, Sep 11 2025, 4:25 PM
Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising
One could argue that CPI is the next biggest potential market move...
Thu, Sep 11 2025, 12:10 PM
It's an interesting morning for economic data and the bond market's reaction. At face value, CPI was mostly in line with forecasts, but unrounded num...
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 4:28 PM
Helpful Data and Treasury Auction Set High Bar For CPI
Another fairly straightforward day for the bond marke...
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 11:27 AM
Of the two inflation reports out this week, PPI is the lesser of the two in terms of importance, but it came in far enough below forecasts to prompt s...
Tue, Sep 9 2025, 4:04 PM
Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades
When bonds string together several successive days of improvement, the probabi...
Tue, Sep 9 2025, 10:31 AM
On August 1st, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) not only came out weaker than expected, but the previous two reports were also revised significantly lower. This...
Mon, Sep 8 2025, 3:33 PM
More Gains Despite Absence of New Motivation
There's not much to say about Monday other than "we'll take it!...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 4:44 PM
Textbook Reaction With Minimal Volatility
The bond market's reaction to today's jobs report was a textbook e...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 12:32 PM
It may seem like today's bond market movement alone (3/8ths higher in MBS and 0.09% in 10yr yields) doesn't explain the pace of improvement in mortgag...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 9:07 AM
It's a fairly straightforward morning with NFP coming in much weaker than expected with additional net-negative revisions to the previous 2 months. Th...
Thu, Sep 4 2025, 3:54 PM
Bonds Positioning For Weaker NFP?
One of the best things to understand about the jobs report is that the pay...
Thu, Sep 4 2025, 10:33 AM
Thursday morning's slate of econ data was the most active of the week with claims, layoffs, ADP, and ISM Services (also the Trade Gap and Labor Costs,...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 4:21 PM
Straightforward Data-Driven Rally
It proved to be an incredibly straightforward day for the bond market. Tr...
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