Fri, Aug 1 2025, 5:07 PM
Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness
"Revision" is the word of the day as every armchair economist ...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 3:36 PM
Every month, we offer the same old warning/reminder ahead of the big jobs report--something to the effect of "no other economic report has as much pow...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 3:28 PM
Mortgage application activity fell last week, reversing prior momentum and highlighting continued softness in both purchase and refinance demand. The ...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 2:07 PM
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for mor...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 1:48 PM
Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller released the latest update on home price appreciation this week. Actually, in the current case, it's more like home pri...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 11:59 AM
Non-farm payrolls came in at 73k vs 110k, which is a pretty good thing for the bond market in and of itself. But the bigger story is in the net revis...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 11:48 AM
Soon I will head to Michigan. Isolationists beware: Federal records revealed by a Freedom of Information Act request have found that the government of...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 4:47 PM
Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains
Bonds were slightly stronger in the overnight session and this morn...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates went to bed last night knowing that the bond market would need to improve in the morning in order for prevailing levels to be maintaine...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 3:11 PM
Below is a table that consolidates the results of various econ reports as well as NFP precedents that speak to the odds of NFP moving higher or lower ...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 11:43 AM
As hundreds of attendees add Bob Seger, Madonna, Eminem, and Stevie Wonder to their playlists in preparation for the MMLA conference starting this wee...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 10:33 AM
While jobless claims and the Employment Cost Index can be market movers, today's biggest ticket in the 8:30am slot was the monthly PCE Price Index for...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 4:16 PM
Markets Expected More Dovishness From Powell
AM data was a mixed bag that left bonds slightly weaker on the ...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 3:49 PM
Wednesday brought another incremental increase in the level and importance of the calendar events with the power to create volatility for rates. Some ...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports have affected continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has continu...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 11:43 AM
Is it just a matter of time until insurance companies tell us where to live, what to make out houses out of, and what, exactly, we’re allowed to plant...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 10:06 AM
There were two key reports at the start of trading today. The 815am ADP data was fairly forgettable, coming in at 104k vs 75k f'cast, and -23k previo...
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 4:33 PM
Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply
The bond market was in flow state on Tuesday wi...
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 3:43 PM
After three straight days at exactly the same level, average 30yr fixed rates began to move lower again on Tuesday. It should immediately be clarified...
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 11:48 AM
Yesterday, Tampa set a record for its all-time high temperature (at least since man began keeping track, for you sticklers) while rain caused flooding...
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 10:35 AM
There's no mistaking the fact that bonds are trading in a boring, narrowing, sideways range in the bigger picture, nor could anyone claim that today's...
Mon, Jul 28 2025, 4:15 PM
A "No Reaction" Sort of Day
Granted, there were no big ticket economic reports on tap for Monday, but there ...
Mon, Jul 28 2025, 3:15 PM
If any given week of movement in the mortgage rate world came with disclaimer, this one would be: "Warning. An absence of volatility on Monday has no ...
Mon, Jul 28 2025, 11:50 AM
“Since it started raining, all my husband has done is look sadly through the window. If it gets any worse, I'll have to let him in.” (My son Robbie fi...
Mon, Jul 28 2025, 10:50 AM
Given that a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and EU was announced over the weekend, markets haven't moved much at all in response. 10yr yields w...
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 4:48 PM
Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing
Despite a few inconsequential ups and down...
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 4:16 PM
It's no great secret that the outgoing week didn't offer much in terms of hotly anticipated events with the power to make or break momentum in the rat...
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 12:04 PM
Bonds were initially stronger, then weaker in the overnight session. There was a bit of additional selling in the first hour, but none of it correspo...
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 11:50 AM
If you want to see an unscripted moment where politics and the central bank collide, thank Ken Sonner for sending over this clip of President Trump an...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 5:19 PM
Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling
This morning's Jobless Claims report was the week's most rele...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 3:54 PM
The latest New Home Sales report (released today) shows a slight uptick in June after last month’s sharp drop. The seasonally‑adjusted annual sales pa...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 3:41 PM
After falling for 5 straight days leading into Tuesday, mortgage rates have now moved slightly higher on each of the past two days. As was the case wi...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 11:41 AM
July 24… While much of the nation swelters, if you live in Utah, it’s Pie and Beer Day. Uh, I mean, Pioneer Day. The average home in Utah now costs $5...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 8:47 AM
Jobless claims data continues to defy a majority of other labor market metrics in showing a remarkable lack of any signs of softening. In fact, the 4...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 4:55 PM
Broadly Calm Despite Modest Pull-Back
If anything about the present week required investigation and explanat...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 3:22 PM
It's been a pretty good run for mortgage rates since hitting their most recent highs last Tuesday. Each subsequent day saw a modest improvement. That ...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 11:40 AM
Two months ago, existing home sales hit a five-month low. Last month’s report showed a minor rebound. This month’s update, released July 23, shows a r...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 10:43 AM
The analytical theme this week has been to observe the market movement and then go scrambling for justification. Such is the nature of a week without...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 9:01 AM
Mortgage application activity managed a modest increase last week despite slightly higher rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly surve...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 8:28 AM
The residential lending industry touches all facets of life, and the best LOs are not focused strictly about mortgages. I start off this Commentary wi...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 4:16 PM
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day
Bonds improved in the morning following comments from Bessent that gave ...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 3:25 PM
Last week, we got a sneak preview of how the market would react to Fed Chair Powell ending his term early. In a nutshell, only the shortest-term rates...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 11:53 AM
You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company and mortgage servicer certainly do. It is a fact that warmer air can hold more moist...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 11:23 AM
While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity. This can spi...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 4:26 PM
Uneventful Resilience
Monday's theme for the bond market was one of moderate resilience--at least for the lo...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenari...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 11:51 AM
“Sometimes, someone unexpected comes into your life outta nowhere, makes your heart race, and changes you forever. We call those people cops. (Where d...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 11:46 AM
It seems like only 2 weeks ago (because it was) that we encountered an entire week without any major events on the econ calendar. The present week is ...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 5:28 PM
Needle Threaded. Now What?
As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 5:10 PM
While any rate watcher's bingo card should always have a few squares devoted to "unchanged, flat, etc.," this week's had at least as many squares rese...
