Thu, Apr 17 2025, 4:55 PM
Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and very flat for most of the morning....
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 4:02 PM
The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo publish the Housing Market Index (HMI) each month, otherwise known simply as "builder ...
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 3:32 PM
One would think that the pace of new residential construction largely mirrors the pace of filings for building permits. And while that is generally tr...
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 2:35 PM
Mortgage rates managed to make a nice amount of progress this week after hitting the highest levels in roughly 2 months last Friday. The first 2 days ...
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 2:18 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) mortgage application survey was at the highest combined level since October in last week's data--a move large...
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 11:55 AM
A week from today is “Take Your Child to Work Day.” Something tells me that it won’t be observed in U.S. Government offices. While we’re on family iss...
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 10:45 AM
The market and market participants could use a break after everything endured over the past 2 weeks. This holiday-shortened week turned out to provid...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 3:48 PM
Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks
You've seen it plenty of times so fa...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 3:29 PM
As markets digested implications of several fiscal policy changes over the past 2 months, a predictable trading pattern emerged. Stocks and interest r...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 11:45 AM
“Every morning, I get hit by the same bicycle… It's a vicious cycle.” Double meanings aside, seasons and the earth’s rotation are cyclical, and Anchor...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 11:35 AM
What a difference a week makes. The present example has been entirely different than the previous example in terms of volatility and directional movem...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 4:39 PM
Absence Makes the Bonds Grow Stronger
Bonds improved at a moderate pace for the 2nd day in a row, thus marki...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 3:50 PM
Financial markets experienced relatively extreme volatility on several occasions following the April 2nd tariff announcements. The bonds that underlie...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 11:33 AM
Here in San Diego at the CU:REALM event, Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp noted that consumer and business sentiment has already dropped and ...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 11:24 AM
In the context of the past two weeks, the past two days have been an anomaly. Not only have bond yields been moving lower, but they've done so in rela...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 4:18 PM
Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Another Tariff Change
It was a low drama session for bonds with overnig...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 3:18 PM
Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. La...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 11:45 AM
“Why don't you tell rumors in a Botox Clinic? Nobody raises an eyebrow.” Who can keep track of the rumors out there, like a combo of a well-known real...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 10:10 AM
Friday afternoon's memorandum on tariff exclusions set the stage for stronger trading in stocks and bonds in the overnight session. Bonds rallied stea...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 5:03 PM
Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data
Bonds managed to recover modestly after the initial yield s...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 4:16 PM
It has undoubtedly been an extremely volatile week for financial markets and that includes the U.S. bond market to be sure. As an example, the poster...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 12:38 PM
There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone who's alive to read these words, but unless your career began ...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 11:44 AM
I don’t know if the rumor is true that Webster’s is considering adding “Tariffied” to its dictionary, but the word certainly fits the climate. Capital...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 5:08 PM
The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real
Bonds sold off today, in spite of a very bond-friendly ...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 3:50 PM
This article is not intended to report on the weekly Freddie Mac rate survey, but we'll have to reference it in order to participate in reality. To be...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 11:49 AM
It feels very odd to label a report like CPI as "irrelevant," and to be fair, traders were still paying some attention, but the trading response, in g...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 11:29 AM
“Over the course of 18 years, it costs over $235,000 for parents to raise a child... and that's just for the alcohol.” Here in Dallas, plenty of peopl...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 5:38 PM
Bonds Have a Lot On Their Minds (And The Mega Reversal After The Tariff Pause)
There are actually too man...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 4:29 PM
For anyone remotely tuned into financial news, it will come as no surprise that this has been a crazy week and today has been a crazy day. This is ju...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 11:13 AM
How ‘bout some good news? Last week’s apps skyrocketed, and… Builders are sitting on a pile of unsold homes and are slashing prices and offering mortg...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 9:14 AM
MBS are down the better part of a point and 10yr yields are up 14+ bps at 4.44%. Another huge loss that leaves market watchers grasping for answers. ...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 5:37 PM
Heavy Losses as Bonds Brace For Tougher Times
This morning's commentary suggested that "liberation day volat...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 4:43 PM
While no one can be sure exactly how things will pan out in the long run, the market is currently expressing extreme disapproval of the new tariff pla...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 11:43 AM
Today I travel to the Dallas area for a Logan Finance event, and this comment from a friend last night is echoing in my ears: “Becoming an adult is th...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 10:47 AM
The past 2 days of selling in the bond market may seem dramatic, but they make solid sense in the bigger picture. Trump's April 2nd "Liberation Day" w...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 5:47 PM
Explaining Monday's Wild Ride in The Bond Market
It was an extremely volatile, frustrating, and downright we...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 5:00 PM
Tariff volatility giveth and taketh from interest rates. Up until Friday afternoon, it's been mostly "giveth-ing." In other words, the prospect of t...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 12:02 PM
It's been an interesting Monday so far for the bond market (and stock market for that matter). Despite a big risk-off move (stocks and yields lower) t...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 11:20 AM
“Many people told Beethoven that he would never be a musician because he was deaf. Did he listen?” This week hundreds of mortgage bankers descend on W...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 5:19 PM
Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally
MBS ended Friday right about where they ended T...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 4:29 PM
This week is ending with the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate at its lowest level since early October, 2024. The only way to be disappointed ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 2:59 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released the latest mortgage application data this week showing a modest 1.6% decrease from the previous week. ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 11:41 AM
Ahead of next week’s MBA Advocacy event in Washington DC, I received this note from an industry vet. “With the continued consolidation into the large ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 11:37 AM
Despite today being "jobs report Friday," and despite the jobs report perennially having the power to cause big volatility for financial markets, over...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 4:48 PM
Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day
On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that's going t...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 3:42 PM
Yesterday afternoon's tariff announcement sent financial markets on a ride that ultimately resulted in sharply lower stock prices and moderately lower...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 11:43 AM
The Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times” can easily be applied to the residential mortgage business in the last month or so. This week a...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 11:19 AM
While plenty of uncertainty remains over the finer points of Wednesday afternoon's tariff announcement, markets have heard enough to brace for impact ...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 5:44 PM
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
The long-awaited tariff speech took markets for a ride in both directio...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, which is pretty crazy considering the volatility present in financial markets in the afternoon. That's when th...
