Credit where credit is due: the rate market did an outstanding job of getting out in front of the Fed rate cut as well as the changes to the Fed's rat...
“Someone asked me if I had plans for the fall. It took me a moment to realize they meant ‘autumn’ and not the fall of civilization.” The Autumn solsti...
Wednesday's Fed rate cut was the worst kept secret in the financial world for months, and the 50bp rate cut was increasingly suspected in the week lea...
The post-Fed overnight session was surprisingly calm. In fact, relative to the magnitude of yesterday's events and information, this is surely one of...
Today's release of Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey took at bad problem and made it worse. Freddie's survey methodology means that today'...
“A Native American, pirate, and Frenchman walk into a bar. The bartender says, ‘Gentlemen, hau, arrrrrrr, oui, today?’” No one has to sound out “s-u-m...
We publish daily coverage of mortgage rate movement and have done so for nearly 20 years now. It's a great place to quickly check in on rate trends a...
“Q: What does a dyslexic pirate say? A: RRRRRRA!” Humor aside, many in our industry have faced adversity, dyslexia and more, and I received this note:...
There is special providence in a 50bp Fed rate cut. If it be now, 'tis not to come (until the next Fed meeting perhaps). If it be not to come, it wi...
Mortgage rates have fallen nearly 2% from last year's peak. Much of that decrease can be viewed as the normal phenomenon of longer term rates getting...
This morning's Retail Sales headline was stronger than expected, but the sub-components (analogous to something like core CPI as opposed to headline C...
Does it give you a sense of permanency if you think about how you’re looking at the same moon as pirates did 300-400 years ago? There’s a lunar eclips...
The new week began on a relatively quiet note in terms of mortgage rate movement and the underlying bond market. There was modest volatility earlier...
So far in the new week, bonds have rallied a bit in the overnight session and sold off a bit after this morning's stronger NY Fed Manufacturing data. ...
The Pirate goes to the dermatologist and says, “Arrg, I got moles.” The dermatologist says, “Don’t worry, they’re benign.” The Pirate replies, “Arrg, ...
We've talked a lot about why the Fed rate cut will have no additional positive impact on mortgage rates next week. Everything the market can already ...
“I pay you to handle my loan and give me a good program with a competitive rate, not predict things you can’t.” At a recent event, a top originator to...
Today's only potentially relevant economic data was the 10am Consumer Sentiment data. This report comes out twice a month, once in "preliminary" form...
While it's true that there have only been 8 business days so far this month, it's also true that today is the only one of the 8 where mortgage rates h...
“Honey, what did you do today?” “Well…” People do some cockamamie stuff against all odds. What are the odds of a lender or LO retaining their client a...
Thursday brings this week's last opportunity for the market to react to moderately important economic data before next week's Fed announcement. So fa...
Mortgage rates moved lower again today despite a key inflation report coming in higher than expected. This is counterintuitive for anyone who's been ...
Heading into today's CPI data, there were valid doubts about the data's role as one of the two biggest market movers (the jobs report being the other)...
When I board an airplane, it is to go from point A to point B, like today from Denver to San Francisco. As long as it’s on time and somewhat economica...
Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds consistently take cues from economic data. Among the data, some reports are vastly m...
Every once in a while, a new loan program is “invented.” Lenders have to make sure they’re doing it correctly. (Don’t try this at home.) At events aro...
The new week is off to a nice, anti-climactic start. Monday morning's yields were slightly higher at first but fell into stronger territory by mid da...
The average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since April 2023 last week. That's down more than 1.25% over the past 5 months....
Despite heavy volume and volatility, Friday's trading session managed to conclude in roughly sideways territory. The new week is starting off on a ca...
Forget ATR. What about ATN? The Ability to Nap. Here in Denver, at The Mortgage Collaborative event, napping is not on the agenda… Every lender out th...
Mortgage rates have a long and storied history of making big moves on the day that the big monthly jobs report comes out. In that regard, today was f...
“The credit card company called me to report suspicious activity... I asked what kind of suspicious activity, and they said someone made a payment.” “...
At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 wee...
Wouldn't it be nice if you could know what was going to happen with mortgage rates before it actually happened? Since the dawn of time in financial m...
Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data...
“If you were born in September, it's pretty safe to assume that your parents started their new year with a bang.” Are originators getting a “bang for ...
Mortgage rates moved lower for the 2nd straight day on Wednesday with the average lender right in line with their lowest levels since August 5th. In ...
Modestly Weaker But Ultimately Uneventful
In terms of the realized volatility relative to potential volatility, this week turned out to be about as calm as we could have possibly imagined. It is truly s...