Wed, Sep 13 2023, 4:32 PM
What's Up With The Paradoxical Post-CPI Rally?
The bond market stared down today's month-over-month core CPI...
Wed, Sep 13 2023, 12:31 PM
Core month-over-month CPI came in at 0.3% versus a 0.2% forecast. This would be bad for bonds at first glance, and indeed it was--at least initially....
Wed, Sep 13 2023, 10:15 AM
McDonald’s taking 9 years to eliminate its self-serve soda pop machines. (Couldn’t they take 5 hours and just move the machines behind the counter?) I...
Wed, Sep 13 2023, 9:20 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the volume of mortgage applications dipped slightly during the week ended September 8. MBA said its Market...
Tue, Sep 12 2023, 4:59 PM
Calm Waters Again, But Tomorrow Could Rock The Boat
Much like yesterday (which saw the narrowest 10yr yield ...
Tue, Sep 12 2023, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates started the week slightly higher for the average lender, but still below last week's highs. Most of what was lost yesterday was gained...
Tue, Sep 12 2023, 10:39 AM
Bonds may be up a bit and down a bit between now and yesterday's close, but none of it is super consequential in the bigger picture. Of course there ...
Tue, Sep 12 2023, 9:36 AM
Yesterday I listened to the CFPB’s Rohit Chopra discuss home loans. Today I head from Nashville to Chicago, both known all over the world. Here, the U...
Mon, Sep 11 2023, 3:49 PM
Flattest Trading Day in 2 Years
Bonds began the overnight session in slightly weaker territory and held almo...
Mon, Sep 11 2023, 12:33 PM
At times over the past 2 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been the most important economic report on any given month and has had a bigger imp...
Mon, Sep 11 2023, 11:07 AM
One of the topics here in Tennessee is how lenders can help real estate agents or clients. Wanna maybe help your client or favorite real estate agent ...
Fri, Sep 8 2023, 6:55 PM
While it's impossible to predict the future when it comes to financial markets, it's usually possible to identify the events that have higher potentia...
Fri, Sep 8 2023, 4:08 PM
Uneventful Friday. Thoughts Turning to CPI
Apart from the fact that 10yr Treasury yields are about 25bps hig...
Fri, Sep 8 2023, 11:16 AM
There weren't any huge, obvious market movers in the overnight session. The average analyst is chalking up bond gains to good old "global growth conc...
Fri, Sep 8 2023, 10:09 AM
Inflation and price increases can be widespread and impact many, like gasoline or flour, or can be very specific and impact only a small portion of th...
Thu, Sep 7 2023, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates haven't had a great week so far. Monday's bank holiday meant that mortgage lenders had to account for an extra day of movement in the ...
Thu, Sep 7 2023, 3:36 PM
Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger Data
In this very "data dependent" environment, it was no surprise to see bo...
Thu, Sep 7 2023, 10:18 AM
“My mother used to say that the way to a man’s heart is through his stomach. Wonderful woman, lousy surgeon.” There is some great food in various part...
Thu, Sep 7 2023, 10:02 AM
Bonds have been waiting in line for a shift in the economic data and the rally that might result, but the ill-tempered econ data continues the refrain...
Wed, Sep 6 2023, 4:49 PM
If you're at all tuned in to economic and financial news, you've probably heard the the phrase "data dependent" more than a few times recently. It re...
Wed, Sep 6 2023, 4:21 PM
Straightforward sell-off
Bonds managed to begin the day sideways to slightly stronger, although the strength...
Wed, Sep 6 2023, 10:59 AM
It's not as if the bond market magically knew that today's non-manufacturing PMIs would come in hotter than expected, but they were clearly trading de...
Wed, Sep 6 2023, 9:59 AM
This morning I head to Dallas, Texas, where, if you ask Redfin, prices are up 5 percent for the year. Or Zillow will tell you prices are down 2 percen...
Wed, Sep 6 2023, 9:36 AM
A powerful hurricane and an approaching three-day weekend may have offset the impact of an improvement in interest rates during the week ended Septemb...
Tue, Sep 5 2023, 5:00 PM
Mortgage rates are noticeably higher to start the new week for most lenders although some lenders increased their costs nearly as much on Friday. Bet...
Tue, Sep 5 2023, 4:48 PM
Issuance and Holiday Hangover Hitting Bonds
Bonds were decently weaker on the first day back after Labor Day...
Tue, Sep 5 2023, 12:24 PM
After a frustrating selling spree last Friday, bonds are starting the new week with a bit more selling. Much like Friday, justifications are not as s...
Tue, Sep 5 2023, 10:40 AM
It was a rough weekend. My cat Myrtle, resting comfortably at the top of the food chain, was visibly miffed at me not nominating her (again) for the v...
Fri, Sep 1 2023, 3:47 PM
What's Up With Friday's Sell-Off?
Bonds lost ground today and it definitely wasn't as simple as traders havi...
Fri, Sep 1 2023, 11:50 AM
Bonds rallied out of the gate after the jobs report came out this morning. Perhaps it was the fact that 187k isn't much higher than the 170k forecast...
Fri, Sep 1 2023, 10:06 AM
Some things in life are fleeting, like a frosty glass of rose, enemy troops singing Christmas carols in the trenches during WWI, or the time when lend...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 4:36 PM
Today's mortgage rates remain at levels that are much higher than most of the past few decades, but refreshingly lower than most of the past 3 weeks. ...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 4:35 PM
Pssst. Some People Think NFP Could be Even Weaker Than Forecast
This morning's economic data came out slight...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 11:20 AM
Another morning, another set of economic reports with the power to move markets. Today's examples included jobless claims coming in at 228 vs 235k, c...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 9:37 AM
The great thing about inflation is if you spend the same on groceries, the bags are lighter and easier to carry home. Restaurants and food companies r...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 4:38 PM
Bond Rally a Victim of Its Own Success
This morning's economic data was bond-friendly, but not as unequivoca...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 4:25 PM
In the space of just 2-3 short days, mortgage rates have moved from multi-decade highs to the lowest levels in 3 weeks. The catch is that the last 3 ...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 12:25 PM
On a week fraught with important economic data, the results continue coming in on the weaker side of forecasts and bonds continue to like it. While y...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 10:02 AM
Studies have shown that women who have large backsides live much longer than the men who comment on them. Studies also show that there are three basic...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 8:16 AM
After falling for five straight weeks, mortgage applications finally gained a little ground last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said i...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 4:20 PM
Is The Top In?
No one had much to say or think about JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) over...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 3:34 PM
The role of economic data in determining mortgage rate momentum is hard to overstate these days and today provided another solid example. This mornin...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 11:07 AM
While bonds may have started the day drifting into slightly weaker territory, losses have quickly shifted to gains in the wake of this morning's big t...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 10:18 AM
“What did the happy real estate agent put on her sign? I have lots to be thankful for.” (Feel free to use that gem at your next presentation at Sotheb...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 3:43 PM
Mortgage rates hit fresh multi-decade highs last week with many lenders hitting the mid-7% range earlier in the week for top tier conventional 30yr fi...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 3:35 PM
Fairly Uneventful But Perhaps Not For Long
The week began with a perfectly normal example of a summertime Mo...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 11:25 AM
The "data dependent" waiting game is nothing new, even if there have been some changes in how the market has interpreted data. Specifically, the days...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 10:31 AM
As the rumor spreads that millions of women are lined up to be weighed at the Fulton County Jail, we head into late summer and early autumn, rarely a ...
Fri, Aug 25 2023, 4:55 PM
Heading into the day, the market held out the possibility of heightened volatility surrounding a speech from Fed Chair Powell at the annual Jackson H...
Fri, Aug 25 2023, 3:11 PM
Absolutely No Surprises From Powell
What a letdown, but also what an unsurprising speech from Fed Chair Powe...
