Wed, Feb 7 2024, 9:35 AM
After rising roughly 2bps yesterday afternoon, bond yields dropped just over 2bps right at the start of the overnight session with buzz surrounding Mo...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 8:44 AM
Mortgage application volume rose modestly during the week as mortgage rates marked time. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Comp...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 4:09 PM
The past two business days (Friday and Monday) accounted for the 3rd largest increase in mortgage rates since March 2020. Friday, specifically, was t...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 4:02 PM
Magical Mystery Rally
Whereas the bond market had obvious, individual motivations for all phases of the shar...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 12:59 PM
When bond yields began spiking abruptly after last Friday's jobs report, one of the immediate saving graces was the fact that the late January highs w...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 10:45 AM
Every month we receive statistics showing how prices are going up, or down, and our Federal Reserve is continually mentioning controlling inflation wh...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 3:40 PM
Last Friday was the worst day for mortgage rates in over a year in terms of day-over-day movement (October 19th, 2023 remains the worst day in decades...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 3:23 PM
Big Losses Get Bigger After ISM Data
Bonds sold off again today, but this time in several distinct waves. T...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 10:39 AM
“If I had a dollar for every girl that found me unattractive, they would eventually find me attractive.” New York Community Bancorp, buyer of Flagstar...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 9:55 AM
The bond market continues providing a great example big movement in the "little picture." Right out of the gate, if we examine just a slightly bigger...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Was The Jobs Report Real and What Are The Lasting Implications?
Is Friday's NFP number of 353k versus a 180k...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates were crushed by today's jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls (the main component of the report), came in significantly higher than expected...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 12:43 PM
It's not really an exaggeration to say "no one saw it coming" with respect to this morning's jobs report. NFP hit 353k versus a forecast of 180k. 10...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 10:54 AM
Although he is correct less than half the time, groundhog Punxsutawney Phil didn’t see his shadow this morning, meaning an early spring is likely. At ...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 4:10 PM
"Long-term" is a subjective measurement, but in this case, it refers to the the past 7 or 8 months. Today's mortgage rates dropped to levels that--un...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 4:08 PM
Best Levels in More Than a Month Ahead of Jobs Report
At one point this morning, 10yr yields were close to b...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 12:03 PM
It is undoubtedly ironic that the Fed just removed a sentence that had been in the statement since March 2023 regarding the banking system being sound...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 11:07 AM
Ahead of Groundhog Day tomorrow, one realizes that our industry certainly has its share of unexpected ups and downs. The latest example of a “down” is...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 5:24 PM
This is a challenging day to attempt to understand the relationship between events and rate movement. At the most superficial level, rates are much l...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 5:18 PM
Lots of Volatility But Not Much to Do With The Fed
Today was indeed a Fed day and bonds definitely have a tr...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. been expanding at a solid pace. ...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 12:09 PM
In an interesting turn of events this morning, the Treasury refunding announcement has taken a back seat to econ data which has, in turn, taken a back...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 10:56 AM
I could tell that my cat Myrtle was miffed. Not only had the work on her “2024 Vision Board Statement” languished, but either there was no line-caught...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates inched gently lower yet again today. That's the 4th day in a row without moving higher, but it's just as fair to say rates have been b...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 4:17 PM
Nice bounce back after AM Weakness
Job openings came in higher than expected this morning and immediately pu...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 12:39 PM
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) didn't used to matter to the bond market. That changed rather abruptly in the past 2 years as mark...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 10:57 AM
“What do hospital gowns and insurance policies have in common? You’re never covered as much as you think you are.” Although loan officers are not insu...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates are in the midst of a bit of a winning streak, but it's about as small and as neutral as winning streaks get. Today was the third day ...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 4:37 PM
Solid Start But Data Dependent
Bonds started the day in slightly stronger territory with gains in both Asia ...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 12:16 PM
Monday is the only day of the present week without any major scheduled economic data. After that, it's game on with the increasingly meaningful JOLTS...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 10:57 AM
“Sometimes it takes me all day to get nothing done.” But things are always changing. When I was a kid I “got a drink of water.” Now kids “hydrate.” Re...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 4:12 PM
Over the past 2 months, speculation ramped up quickly regarding the pace and magnitude of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Next week brings the first Fed meetin...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 3:00 PM
Uneventful Week. How About The Next One?
Sure... rates moved a bit higher this week as the bond market cont...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 12:54 PM
Pending home sales surged last month, far exceeding analysts’ expectations. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales In...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 11:34 AM
Once upon a time, the bond market looked to the PCE inflation data as the definitive measurement of the Fed's success regarding the 2% target. One ...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 10:30 AM
Life is a matter of perspective, and LOs and vendors don’t need some momentous weekly or monthly numbers to garner a piece of the $1.5-$2 trillion res...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 3:27 PM
What's Up With Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger GDP?
We're not huge fans of the GDP report as a consistent ma...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 2:48 PM
Who doesn’t think swearing parrots are funny? Although you wouldn’t want your parrot talking about the clap when Aunt Beatrice comes over for Sunday d...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 2:45 PM
The average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate hit its highest level in exactly 6 weeks yesterday. Today's movement was in the opposite direction....
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 2:43 PM
New home sales finished 2023 on a positive note , posting seasonally adjusted numbers higher than in both November and the prior December. The U.S. Ce...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 11:26 AM
Today's slate of economic data was/is the biggest of the week, by far. Results were mixed at 8:30am with higher jobless claims and weaker durable goo...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 4:20 PM
Today's mortgage rate recap is remarkably similar to yesterday's. Rates rose modestly from levels that were already near recent highs, thus technical...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 4:18 PM
Weak Data, Weak Auction, Weak Bonds
The simplest way to view today's moderate bond market weakness is as a p...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 11:43 AM
For the first time this week, the economic calendar is not completely empty. Granted, the S&P Global PMI data is not the heaviest of hitters, but it ...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 11:10 AM
As attendees head home from the MBA’s IMB in New Orleans, plenty will be eating airplane chow. Maybe you should buy vittles on the ground instead. Giv...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 8:31 AM
Mortgage application activity has increased in each of the three weeks of the New Year, even though two of those weeks were impacted by federal holida...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 4:49 PM
Remarkably little happened in the bond market today. That means that mortgage lenders shouldn't have any obvious motivations to make big changes to t...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 4:48 PM
Hurry Up And Wait
Monday saw the lowest volume and lightest volatility of the year so far, but Tuesday turne...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 11:06 AM
As the market waits for next Wednesday's Fed announcement, there are a few other central bank updates to digest. This week's examples include the Eur...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 10:48 AM
Yesterday’s Commentary had a note about Atlantic Bay’s “LinkedIn traffic picking up.” I have been assured by Atlantic Bay’s CEO that the company conti...
