Tue, Jul 27 2021, 4:04 PM
Wednesday afternoon brings one of the year's 8 regularly scheduled policy updates from the Federal Reserve (aka, the Fed). While there's no question t...
Tue, Jul 27 2021, 4:01 PM
Deceptively Interesting Trading Range Ahead of Fed
After a move up from 1.25 to nearly 1.30% on Monday, 10yr...
Tue, Jul 27 2021, 1:01 PM
The U.S. Census Bureau says the nation's Homeownership Rate was at 65.4 percent in the second quarter of 2021. This is down from both the previous qua...
Tue, Jul 27 2021, 12:57 PM
May set yet more records for price increases. Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agenc...
Tue, Jul 27 2021, 11:18 AM
With Simone Biles injury at the Olympics, let’s shift our attention to lending & housing. Have you ever asked someone, especially a politician, for th...
Tue, Jul 27 2021, 10:17 AM
After having gained so much over the past 4 months (not to mention the removal of the adverse market fee), and with a Fed announcement due out tomorro...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 6:20 PM
t was a slow trading day for the most part until the last 90 minutes. Until then, MBS and Treasuries were generally flat. As the day wound down, yie...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 2:58 PM
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reports that there was a fourth consecutive year-over-year decline in the rate of investment in U.S. real ...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 12:42 PM
In May, the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that the seasonally adjusted annual sales of newly constructed...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 12:37 PM
With the federal moratorium on mortgage foreclosures nearing an end, the White House has announced a series of steps to help homeowners who have suffe...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 12:32 PM
In the wake of a near 200,000 drop in the number of loans in forbearance earlier in July, changes over the last two weeks have been modest. Black Knig...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 11:17 AM
The headline this morning is seven people dying in a car crash caused by a Utah sandstorm. The damage caused by storms, including hurricanes in the Ea...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 10:05 AM
Heading into the weekend, the delta variant continued driving a surge in U.S. covid case counts with Friday's 118k+ being the highest day-over-day inc...
Fri, Jul 23 2021, 3:19 PM
Ending on an Equivocal Note Ahead of Fed Week
If we look through the small-scale volatility throughout the w...
Fri, Jul 23 2021, 10:58 AM
How do you know when someone has too much money? How about when they pony up $16k for Tarzan’s 1932 loin cloth ? (“Gosh, if that loin cloth could talk...
Fri, Jul 23 2021, 10:26 AM
After a stellar Monday and a big reversal on Tuesday, Wednesday stands out as the week's big shift back toward last week's trading range. Today's ses...
Thu, Jul 22 2021, 4:03 PM
Bonds Remain Resilient With Help From ECB
This morning's ECB announcement proved to be moderately bond-frien...
Thu, Jul 22 2021, 3:12 PM
The national delinquency rate dropped by 7.62 percent in June and is now 42.39 percent below its rate at the worst of the pandemic. Black Knight, in i...
Thu, Jul 22 2021, 11:52 AM
Existing home sales snapped a four-month losing streak in June. Sales of pre-owned single-family houses, townhouses, condominiums, and cooperative apa...
Thu, Jul 22 2021, 11:26 AM
How would you like to compete against a company whose tagline is, “We Do It All, Guaranteed!”? The program is part of an existing Weichert Realtors’ o...
Thu, Jul 22 2021, 10:20 AM
This morning's ECB announcement proved to be moderately bond-friendly. Combined with weaker Jobless Claims data, it's been enough to keep bonds inside...
Wed, Jul 21 2021, 5:01 PM
Defensive Shift Ahead of ECB Announcement
Coming into the week, there was some speculation that Monday's bon...
Wed, Jul 21 2021, 11:42 AM
Experienced mortgage loan originators (MLOs) know that a rate lock is a rate lock. The removal of the adverse market fee of .5 for conventional confor...
Wed, Jul 21 2021, 10:02 AM
After a strong showing during the week ended July 9, mortgage application volume pulled back. The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Market Composit...
Wed, Jul 21 2021, 9:23 AM
With a moderate dose of weakness in the overnight session, 10yr yields have quickly found themselves on the doorstep of 1.25%--a level that marked the...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 3:30 PM
There are two pieces of big news for mortgage rates over the past few business days. The first arrived last week in the form of the removal of the adv...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 3:29 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association is projecting a sizeable decline in new home sales occurred last month as applications for their purchase declined 3 ...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 3:28 PM
Housing starts posted a second straight increase in June while permits continued what has become a long, slow, slide. The U.S. Census Bureau and the D...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 3:24 PM
Intraday Weakness vs Bigger Picture Strength
There comes a time in the midst of an aggressive snowball rally...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 11:52 AM
t was bound to happen: My cat Myrtle and I came to blows. She wanted to spend her trust fund money, earned on the catwalk in her prime, to pay various...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 10:00 AM
Even before this week, the mid-2021 bond rally exceeded many expectations with the 10yr yield's brief love tap of the 1.25% level last week. It's onl...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 8:10 AM
Like most recent economic forecasts, that one from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group for July continues to project a pull-back ...
Mon, Jul 19 2021, 3:37 PM
Big Bond Rally Just Got Bigger
U.S. traders fired up the screens this morning to see a substantial bond rall...
Mon, Jul 19 2021, 11:30 AM
Strong buyer demand appears to be offsetting concerns about labor shortages and rising prices , keeping builder confidence near historic highs the Nat...
Mon, Jul 19 2021, 11:25 AM
“My password is weak? Well, so is my memory, so cut me some slack and let me keep it!” What isn’t weak is the bond market, and rates continue to fall....
Mon, Jul 19 2021, 9:13 AM
The week is off to a very strong start as heavy selling in stocks coincided with a flight to safety in bonds during the overnight session. Treasuries...
Fri, Jul 16 2021, 5:09 PM
Quiet Bond Market Leaves Focus on Demise of Adverse Market Fee
Seemingly out of the blue, the much-maligned ...
Fri, Jul 16 2021, 2:19 PM
It is nice to end the week with good news, so here it is: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) just announced it is eliminating the Adverse Marke...
Fri, Jul 16 2021, 12:48 PM
The rapid run up in house prices may be starting to exhaust potential homebuyers according to the quarterly forecast from Freddie Mac's Economic and H...
Fri, Jul 16 2021, 12:45 PM
A set of special questions on a Q1 National Housing Survey asked consumers, who were also recent homebuyers, about their experiences obtaining a mortg...
Fri, Jul 16 2021, 11:22 AM
I am sure that there are people who read this commentary who firmly believe that the earth’s climate is not changing, and believe that historical grap...
Fri, Jul 16 2021, 9:49 AM
As bonds have recovered from the high yields seen in March, the tendency has been for rally weeks to end with a bit of defensiveness on Fridays. This...
Thu, Jul 15 2021, 3:06 PM
Bonds Keep Running The Table Without Much Motivation
The absence of overt, discrete motivation is one of the...
Thu, Jul 15 2021, 2:45 PM
Mortgage rates fell again today as the bond market continues to enjoy surprisingly strong levels over the past 2 weeks. That strength was not always a...
Thu, Jul 15 2021, 11:20 AM
Ask any manager. It was much more fun to announce, “We’re hiring!” than it is to mutter, “We’re laying off.” Currently there are plenty of rumors abou...
Thu, Jul 15 2021, 10:34 AM
After Wednesday's respectable rally, we may as well give up the search for too much discrete causality in the bond market. While we can definitely ob...
Wed, Jul 14 2021, 4:24 PM
Bonds Recover as Friendly Powell Trumps Inflation Data (sort of...)
Producer prices surged in this morning's...
Wed, Jul 14 2021, 3:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher yesterday after a poorly-received 30yr bond auction ( read more... ). The bond market began to heal in the overnight tradi...
Wed, Jul 14 2021, 11:37 AM
Don’t think technology controls you? How about this news that Apple’s weather app will never show a temperature of 69 degrees ? Good mortgage loan ori...
Wed, Jul 14 2021, 10:03 AM
The bond market doesn't tend to care about wholesale inflation (PPI) relative to the mainstream indices (CPI, PCE), but a number as high as 5.6% might...
