Home prices are projected to finish out the year with a downtick although prices will still be significantly higher than at the same point in 2013.  CoreLogic said today that home prices in November were 0.1 percent higher than in October but are expected to decline by that same amount in December.

In addition to posting a small month-over-month increase CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) including distressed sales (lender-owned property or REO and short sales) was up 5.5 percent compared to November 2013.  November was the 33^rd consecutive month that home prices have increased nationally on an annual basis.

All 50 states and the District of Columbia posted year-over-year increases in November when distressed sales are included in the equation.  The five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Michigan (+9.0 percent), Colorado (+8.8 percent), Texas (+8.5 percent), North Dakota (+7.9 percent) and Nevada (+7.9 percent).   

Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to November 2014) was -12.9 percent but 29 states are at or within 10 percent of their pre-crash price peaks and seven have set new high-water markets.  States with new price peaks are Colorado, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Wyoming.

Every state and the District also saw year-over-year price increases on the CoreLogic HPI that excludes distressed sales.  That index rose nationally by 5.3 percent from November 2013 to November 2014 and was up 0.3 percent on a monthly basis.  Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Massachusetts (+8.6 percent), Texas (+7.9 percent), Colorado (+7.8 percent), North Dakota (+7.8 percent) and South Dakota (+7.5 percent).  /the peak-to-current change in the HPI excluding distressed sales was -9.2 percent.

CoreLogic projects that while its HPI that includes distressed sales will fall slightly in December it will maintain the long-running year-over-year gains, rising 4.6 percent from November 2014 to November 2015.  The HPI excluding distressed sales will also decrease by 0.1 percent in December but will increase by 4.2 percent by November of this year.  The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

Ninety-six of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in November 2014.The four CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.; Camden, N.J.; Greensboro-High Point, N.C.; and Winston-Salem, N.C.

"After decelerating for most of the year, home price growth has been holding firm between a 5-percent and 6-percent growth rate for the last four months," Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic said. "However, pockets of weakness are clear in Baltimore and Washington D.C., and three of the top four states with the highest price appreciation are energy intensive and had been benefitting from the energy boom which is currently receding as oil prices trend downward. These states-Texas, Colorado and North Dakota, may see some downward pressure on prices in 2015."

"The pace of home price gains have slowed as we exit 2014 but this is probably only a temporary lull," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "While the CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows a slight dip in prices next month, we believe that prices will be up a year from now as continued economic growth fuels buyer confidence and their willingness to purchase a home and invest in their future."