All of the usual measures of mortgage distress continue to retreat CoreLogic said in its National Foreclosure Report for November. (The report contains a supplement featuring quarterly shadow inventory data as of October 2013.) Serious delinquencies, completed foreclosures, foreclosures in process, and the shadow inventory are all down substantially from their respective peaks and serious delinquencies are at a six-year low.
CoreLogic said that there were 1.969 million mortgages considered seriously delinquent, that is 90 or more days past due or in foreclosure, in November compared to 2.021 million in October, a decline of 2.6 percent. November delinquencies were down 26.3 percent from the 2.637 million mark 12 months earlier. The national delinquency rate is now 5.0 percent, the lowest percentage since November 2008.
There were approximately 812,000 homes in some stage of foreclosure in November, down from 1.2 million one year earlier, a decrease of 34 percent and 4.6 percent below October's foreclosure inventory. Homes in foreclosure during the recent period represented 2.1 percent of mortgaged homes, down from 3 percent in November 2012.
The states with the highest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of mortgaged homes are Florida (6.6 percent), New Jersey (6.5 percent, New York (4.7 percent) and Maine and Connecticut, each at 3.5 percent. Thirty-five states have inventories lower than the national rate of 2.3 percent with the lowest percentages being in Wyoming (0.4 percent), Alaska (0.5 percent) and North Dakota, Nebraska and Colorado (all 0.6 percent.)
The shadow inventory or pending supply which includes properties which are seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or in servicers' owned real estate inventories but not yet listed on Multiple Listing Services. The shadow inventory decreased 24 percent from 2.2 million homes in October 2012, a 5.8 month supply, to 1.7 million in October 2013, a 3.5 month supply; almost half are delinquent but not yet foreclosed.
The inventory is now down 43 percent from the peak of 3 million homes reached in January 2010 with double-digit decreases in the inventory on a year-over-year basis for each of the last 13 months. The value of the inventory was $256 billion as of October 2013, down from $348 billion a year earlier.
There were 46,000 completed foreclosures in November compared to 64,000 in November 2012, a 29 percent drop and 8.3 percent fewer than in October. The incidence of foreclosure, while down significantly from recent highs, is still elevated by normal standards. By way of comparison CoreLogic said that completed foreclosures averaged 21,000 per month nationwide between 2000 and 2006. There have been approximately 4.7 million foreclosures completed since September 2008.
The five states with the highest number of completed foreclosures for the 12 months ending in November 2013 were Florida (115,000), Michigan (54,000), California (42,000), Texas (40,000) and Georgia (36,000). These five states account for almost half of all completed foreclosures nationally.
"Nationally, loan performance continues to improve. The rate of seriously delinquent loans is at a new five-year low, down 26 percent relative to a year ago," said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. "The shadow inventory continues to decline as well, decreasing at an average monthly rate of 46,000 units over the last year. Healthy market levels of shadow inventory are around 650,000 units, so there is more to be done, but the trend is in the right direction."
"Consumer confidence is definitely up as the economic rebound gathers more steam," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "As the negative equity crisis abates and home prices continue to rise, most people are prioritizing the payment of their mortgage obligations. The result is a double-digit drop in the inventory of seriously delinquent homes in 48 states as of October."
