The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices, which track home prices throughout the U.S. on a two-month lag, declined 3.9 percent during the fourth quarter of 2010 on top of a 1.9 percent decline in Q3. Prices were 4.1 percent lower than one year earlier. This represents the lowest annual growth rate since the third quarter of 2009 when prices were falling at an 8.6 percent annual rate and the sixth consecutive month of national home price depreciations.
S&P/Case-Shiller provides two monthly indices which track the price path of single family homes in a 10-City and a 20-City data base. Each index combines matched price pairs from sales of individual homes. The National Housing Index tracks home value data for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. All indices are based on a value of 100 which represents home prices in January 2000. A current index value of 150 percent would translate to a 50 percent appreciation in price since that date.
The Chart below shows the levels of the U.S. National Home Price Index as well as its annual returns. After recovering slightly over several quarters from the trough that home prices reached in Q1 2009, the National Index has dropped nearly back to that level and now approximates home prices in early 2003.
S&P/Case-Shiller provides its data in both seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted form but recommends relying on the latter.
19 of 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) in the 20-City Index reported declines during in the November/December period with Tampa down 2.6 percent; Detroit off 2.3 percent; and Seattle declining 2.0 percent. Only Washington DC showed an increase, a slight 0.3 percent. In December, 11 MSAs fell to new index lows following their peaks in 2006/2007. For nine of these MSAs, Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Seattle, Tampa, and Portland (OR) it was the second record setting month in a row; New York and Phoenix were newcomers to the list.
David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard and Poor's said, "We ended 2010 with a weak report. Unlike the 2006 to 2009 period when all cities saw prices move together, we see some differing stories around the country. California is doing better with gains from their low points in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco. At the other end is the Sun Belt - Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa. All four made new lows in December. Also seeing renewed weakness are some cities that were among the last to reach their peaks including Atlanta, Charlotte, Portland OR and Seattle."
Blitzer said that Cleveland and Las Vegas have joined Detroit with average home prices below the January 2000 base period.
