There was what the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices called "a significant slowdown in price increases in July S&P Dow Jones Indices said today. Nineteen of the 20 cities in the survey saw a lower year-over-year gain in July than they had registered in the previous month and only three cities still showed increases in the double digits.
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 5.6 percent annual gain in July 2014 compared to a 6.2 percent annual increase in June. The 10- and 20-City Composites showed year-over-year increases of 6.7 percent, a substantial decline from the 8.1 percent gain for each during the 12 months ended in June. Las Vegas, Miami and San Francisco were the only cities to report double-digit annual gains. Cleveland's rate remained unchanged at +0.9 percent for the 12 months ending July 2014.
On a month-over-month basis the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices increased 0.6 percent each and the National Index rose 0.5 percent. The increases from May to June were 1.0 percent for the composites and 0.9 percent for the National Index. San Francisco, where prices have skyrocketed in the last dozen months, was the only city without a gain from June to July; prices there declined by 0.4 percent, the first decline for the city this year and its largest drop since February 2012. Of the remaining cities 17 had smaller gains than in June and for in only one, New York City, did the July increase exceed 1 percent.
"The broad-based deceleration in home prices continued in the most recent data," David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices said. "However, home prices continue to rise at two to three times the rate of inflation. The slower pace of home price appreciation is consistent with most of the other housing data on housing starts and home sales. The rise in August new home sales -- which are not covered by the S&P/Case-Shiller indices - is a welcome exception to recent trends.
Of note, he said, are Las Vegas, one of the most depressed housing markets in the recession, which is still leading the cities with 12.8 percent year-over-year increase, and Phoenix, the first city to see double-digit gains back in 2012, which posted its lowest annual return of 5.7 percent since February 2012.
As of July 2014, average home prices across the United States as registered by the National Index are back to their levels posted in the spring of 2005. The levels of the 10- and 20-City Composites show prices back to the levels in the autumn of 2004. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 16-17 percent. The recovery from the March 2012 lows is 28.6 percent and 29.3 percent for the 10-City and 20-City Composites.
While all cities continue to continue to post year-over-year gains, not one managed to show improvement. San Francisco decelerated the most from an annual return of +13.2 percent last month to +10.3 percent in July. Cleveland remained steady at +0.9 percent year-over-year and continued to underperform the other MSAs by a wide margin.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are constructed to track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50 percent appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
