The take-away message from the August S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) numbers published today appears to be, it's not as bad as last year. While year-over year numbers are improving, most 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices increased 0.2 percent from July to August and 10 of the 20 cities saw price increases during the month. Sixteen of the 20 cities and both composite indices had better year-over-year improvements than they had shown in July.
David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices said, "In the August data, the good news is continued improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices. In spring and summer's seasonally strong period for housing demand, we cautioned that monthly increases in prices had to be paired with improvement in annual rates before anyone could declare that the market might be stabilizing. With 16 of 20 cities and both Composites seeing their annual rates of change improve in August, we see a modest glimmer of hope with these data."
The 10-City index was up 0.9 percent over July to 156.36 and the 20-City was up 0.8 percent month-over-month to 142.84. The 10-City was down 3.8 percent from the August 2010 figure of 162.02 and the 20-city fell -3.5 percent year-over-year compared the August 2010 level of 148.9. The annual change figures in August were improved over July when the two composites showed year-over-year losses of 3.7 and 4.1 percent respectively.
The four cities that did not improve from July to August were Los Angeles, Miami, Atlanta, and Las Vegas. The latter two also fell further into negative territory when August 2011 is compared to August 2010. Las Vegas now has an index of 95.18, second only to Detroit as the lowest MSA in either index and setting its own historic low. The current HPI for Atlanta is 102.04. Minneapolis had the lowest year-over-year return at -8.5 percent but has posted total increases of 3.2 percent in July and August. Only Detroit and Washington, DC posted positive annual returns; 2.7 and 0.3 percent respectively.
Blitzer said "The Midwest is one region that really stands out in terms of recent relative strength. Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis have all posted very sharp monthly increases going back to May. These markets were some of the weakest during the crisis, particularly Detroit. But as of August 2011, Detroit is the healthiest when viewed on an annual basis. It is up 2.7 percent versus August 2010. Prices there are still back to their 1994 levels, but the recent pickup in the US auto industry may finally be helping."
S&P advises using its non-seasonally adjusted figures but does publish a seasonally adjusted data set. This month the 10-City index was down 0.2 percent compared to July and the 20-City was unchanged.
As of August 2011, average home prices across the country are back to the levels of mid-2003. Measured from the peak of home prices in July/July 2006 to the present numbers the 10-City Composite have declined 30.9 percent and the 20-City 30.8 percent. Prices for the 10-City index hit a housing crisis low in April 2009 and the 20-city reached a more recent low in March of this year. Since their respective troughs the indices have improved 3.9 and 3.8 percent respectively.
The S&P/Case-Shiller HPI track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each of 20 metropolitan areas. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus a current index value of 150 translates to a 50 percent appreciation rate since the index was set for a typical home within the subject market.
