Half of the nation's states and the District of Columbia are now at or within 10 percent of the peak reached before the housing crisis brought home prices crashing down.  In addition, CoreLogic says that nine states have now established price levels higher than their various 2005-2007 peaks.

According to CoreLogic's October Home Price Index (HPI) report, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, were 6.1 percent higher in October 2014 than in October 2013.  October was the 32nd consecutive month that the HPI including distressed sales increased nationally.  The index was up month-over-month by 0.5 percent in October.  The national HPI including distressed sales is now 12.4 percent below the peak it established in April 2006.

 

 

While all states saw higher home values in October than a year earlier 27 of them and the nation's capital are nearing full recovery relative to their previous highs and nine have exceeded those data points.  They are Colorado, Louisiana, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming. 

Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest year-over-year home price appreciation in October were: Michigan (+10.5 percent), South Dakota (+10.4 percent), Montana (+9.1 percent), Texas (+8.7 percent) and Colorado (+8.6 percent).

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 5.6 percent in October 2014 compared to October 2013 and 0.6 compared to September 2014. Using this index the District of Columbia and every state but Mississippi where the index declined by 1.2 percent, had year-over-year price gains. The national index excluding distressed sales is 8.9 percent below its peak.  Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

 

 

Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: South Dakota (+10.4 percent), Massachusetts (+9.7 percent), Maine (+8.4 percent), Texas (+8.1 percent) and Michigan (+8.0 percent). 

"Home price growth is moderating as we head into the late fall and is currently running at half the pace it was in the spring of 2014," said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. "However, there are still pockets of strength, especially in several Texas markets, as well as Seattle, Denver and other markets with strong economic fundamentals.

"CoreLogic forecasts that home prices including distressed sales will increase 0.2 percent from October to November of this year and will rise by 5.1 percent from October 2014 to October 2015. Excluding distressed sales the monthly increase is also projected at 0.2 percent and the company forecasts a 4.7 percent increase from October 2014 to October 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

"The gradual recovery of the housing market continues to be propelled by improving employment, more buyer and seller confidence, continued low rates and, in certain parts of the country, investor demand. The continued actual and projected rise in home prices confirms that fact," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Based on our projections, home prices in over half the country will have reached or surpassed levels last seen at the height of the housing bubble sometime in mid-2015."

Ninety-four of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in October 2014. The six CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Connecticut; Worcester, Massachusetts.-Connecticut.; Greensboro-High Point, North Carolina.; Rochester, New York.; Camden, New Jersey; and Winston-Salem, North Carolina.