Zen practitioners are an odd lot.  One of their hallmark koans--the one about whether or not a tree falling in the woods makes a sound--is nonsense.  I can only imagine that the person who came up with that one had never actually seen a tree.  Perhaps he or she thought it was made of feathers.   Or perhaps there really is some merit to the question inasmuch as how one defines "sound."  Does the falling tree still disturb surrounding particles of air and create soundwaves that COULD be heard if someone were within earshot?  Of course.  Does that count as "sound?" I don't really care.  Physics tells us the soundwaves are there, and that if anyone is close enough, they would hear them. A far more relevant question is as follows.  If you hear a tree falling in the woods, do you give a damn? In answering this question, there are a series of follow-up questions and contingencies.  How big is the tree?  How close is it?  Is it falling in my direction?  Depending on those answers, I personally might care a whole heck of a lot.   Economic data and other potential market movers are all trees in the woods.   Sometimes they're big.  Sometimes they are right next to us.  Sometimes that can be scary.   Today brings several big trees and a ton of smaller saplings.  The closest, biggest trees will be ADP employment r ight off the bat and then ISM Non-Manufacturing at 10am.  Dotting the landscape throughout the day are more Fed speakers than I think I've ever seen in a single day.  They are the inconsequential saplings in the current case--es evidenced by the market's reaction to Powell yesterday.  ADP and ISM can certainly have an impact, but anyone with a healthy fear of those trees is far more concerned about the mightiest tree in the forest--the one we'll be standing right next to on Friday morning. Bottom line: the next 48 hours are to be endured, but not focused upon as the key concern for our near-term odds of survival.  Some of the events could get our heart rates up, but the life and death risks are yet to come.

October 3, 2018 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 3, 2018 Mortgage Rates Improve Slightly Tue, Oct 2, 2018 3:46PM Mortgage rates fell modestly today, and thus managed to avoid heading any closer to the 7-year highs just overhead. Underlying bond markets benefited from concerns about Italy's stance on the Euro currency based on one Italian official's comments. Those were later characterized as "just one man's opinion," thus not having a big, lasting impact on rates. To understand what's going on here, first consider that interest rates are based on supply and demand in the bond market. The more that investors want to buy bonds, the lower rates go. When something threatens the stability of some major world ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.00% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/12 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.15 +0.02   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.41 +0.01   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.069 +0.003   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Important Data and a Multitude of Fed Speeches, All Falling in The Woods Wed, Oct 3, 2018 8:23AM Zen practitioners are an odd lot.  One of their hallmark koans--the one about whether or not a tree falling in the woods makes a sound--is nonsense.  I can only imagine that the person who came up with that one had never actually seen a tree.  Perhaps he or she thought it was made of feathers.   Or perhaps there really is some meri... (read more) MBS Live Recap: Bonds Mostly Interested in Italy Despite Other Options Tue, Oct 2, 2018 4:21PM Bonds had a couple options to choose from today when it came to potential market movers.  As far as known quantities, we knew there would be a speech from Fed Chair Powell (maybe he would clarify last week's inflation comments?) and also a big corporate bond deal from Comcast.  Neither of the 'on-the-radar' events had much of an impact.  M... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.65 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.15 +0.02 UMBS 6.0 102.41 +0.01 GNMA 5.0 99.99 -0.01 GNMA 5.5 101.14 +0.01 GNMA 6.0 102.01 +0.01 Pricing as of: 9/15 7:59AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.555 +0.002 5 YR Treasury 3.631 +0.000 7 YR Treasury 3.818 +0.003 10 YR Treasury 4.069 +0.003 30 YR Treasury 4.689 +0.007 Pricing as of: 9/15 7:59AM EST Other News Purchase Mortgage Volume Manages Small Gains, Rates Effectively Unchanged Wed, Oct 3, 2018 8:24AM As mortgage interest rates moved higher during the week ended September 28, with small increases carrying most to new seven year highs, application activity almost froze in place. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, was unchanged from the prior week on a seasonally adjusted basis and lost 0... (read more) Upfront Home Costs Add Up - Especially if Downpayment is Included Tue, Oct 2, 2018 11:47AM Two Zillow subsidiaries are estimating it will cost the average U.S. homebuyer $40,000 to get in the door of their new home. Depending on where the home is located, according to a new analysis from RealEstate.com and Thumbtack, the number could be $26,641 (in Cleveland) or $202,834 (San Jose.) That headline number however is a little misleading. The study lo... (read more) Warehouse and Home Owner Products; OB/LoanDecisions Deal; Disaster Updates Wed, Oct 3, 2018 9:25AM Between 2001 and 2016, 97 percent of total job growth in the Unites States happened in urban counties. And while rural America is absolutely struggling, all rural America isn’t all struggling. In the top 10% for job growth, the U.S. counties, 34% are large metros/urban, 14% medium metros, 11% small metros, 18% were rural and adjacent to a metro, but th... (read more) Latest Video Flashing warning sign coming from the housing space could have a big spillo... Futures Now: Treasury yields surge Santelli Exchange: Economic data lights a fire in the markets Around the Web CNBC Watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in a Q&A session NAR - Realtor.com In a Key Inflection Point,' Number of New Listings Jumps the Most Since 2013 Bloomberg Treasuries Slide Pushes 10-Year US Yield to Highest Since 2011 CNBC When Fed Chair Powell speaks, the stock market drops, costing investors a total of $1.5 trillion Bloomberg Harker Says the Fed Can Take Its Time Raising Rates The Basis Point Why 82% Of Lenders Think They're More Innovative Than They Are CNBC ISM non-manufacturing index hits 61.6 in September, vs. 58 estimate Calculated Risk Blog Update: Predicting the Next Recession NAHB Eye on Housing Share of New Homes with Decks Remains Stable Reuters Fed can hold rates 'relatively indefinitely' when mildly restrictive: Evans CNBC Mortgage fraud is getting worse as more people lie about their income to qualify for loans CNBC Mortgage fraud is getting worse as more people lie about their income to qualify for loans CNBC US Treasury yields edge higher ahead of bumper pack of Fed remarks

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