Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation Bonds were arguably consolidating ahead of last Friday's jobs report with the reaction representing a bit of a bullish breakout.  Since then, there's been a quick and obvious re-consolidation back in line with last week's M-Th levels. Today added to that process with most of the selling taking place by the start of the US trading session. Perhaps some of the selling has been an attempt to make room for this week's Treasury auctions, but there's no question that Wednesday morning's CPI data is the last significant piece of the puzzle that the Fed will receive before deciding "to cut or not to cut" next week.  The market knows this, of course.  As such, a big deviation from forecasts would definitely be enough to get things moving. Market Movement Recap 09:13 AM Modest weakness overnight. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.225. 12:50 PM MBS sideways, still down 5 ticks (.16). 10yr up 4bps at 4.239. 03:23 PM Some strength in PM hours.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.223

December 10, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Dec 10, 2024 Mortgage Rates Moving Back Up Tue, Dec 10, 2024 3:34PM Between November 18th and December 6th, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved down from 7.08 to 6.68.  A 0.40% drop is rather significant, especially over the course of only 3 weeks.  Over the past 2 days, however, we've lost a quarter of that improvement. Today saw rates increase just a bit more than yesterday.  This takes the average lender back near the levels that were intact for most of last week.   Typically, big moves in rates can be linked to important economic data or other market-moving events.  That was the case last week with the bigges... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation Tue, Dec 10, 2024 4:13PM Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation Bonds were arguably consolidating ahead of last Friday's jobs report with the reaction representing a bit of a bullish breakout.  Since then, there's been a quick and obvious re-consolidation back in line with last week's M-Th levels. Today added to that process wit... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:40AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:40AM EST Other News Selling Tools; Thoughts on 2025 Tax Bill; Non-QM and Jumbo News; Capital Markets Tue, Dec 10, 2024 12:03PM “To the paranoid people who check behind shower curtains for murderers: if you find one, what's your plan?” What’s the Fed’s plan? The Federal Reserve is approaching a critical inflection point in its monetary policy because Fed officials are increasingly indicating that interest rates may be near the upper end of the so-called “neutral rate” (i.e., the leve... (read more) Latest Video Lovallo: The existing home market is being impacted by the lock-in effect o... There will likely be fewer rate cuts than the market is anticipating, says ... Yields rise slightly ahead of CPI Consumer spending still healthy in November despite shorter shopping season Around the Web CNBC The CPI report Wednesday is expected to show progress on inflation has hit a wall Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 Calculated Risk Blog The Upward Slope of Real House Prices Eye on Housing Credit Still Tight, But Builders Finally Get Some Relief from Interest Rates CNBC Household finance outlook hits highest since February 2020 following Trump win, New York Fed survey shows CNBC Treasury yields little changed as investors await fresh inflation data CNBC The Fed slashed interest rates, but some credit card APRs aren't going down. Here's why Calculated Risk Blog ICE Mortgage Monitor: Refinance Activity Increased Especially for Rate/Term Refinances Calculated Risk Blog CPI Preview Calculated Risk Blog Housing Dec 9th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.3% Week-over-week, Up 26.3% Year-over-year CNBC Treasury yields tick higher as traders continue to digest jobs data Fannie Mae Consumer Housing Sentiment Up Significantly Year over Year Calculated Risk Blog Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 2% in November; Up 12% YoY

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