The Mortgage Bankers Association is out with the latest survey of mortgage applications and refinance activity led the charge this week.  In fact, purchase activity declined a bit and refis saw their best weekly gains since September. The following chart shows the week over week change in the refi index: At first glance, it would be easy to assume that this is due to some sort of distortion in the week after Thanksgiving, but if that was the case, we would have seen a similar outlier in the other direction last week.  It's more likely that the sharp decline in rates is the x factor. Notably, MBA's weekly survey data only shows rates declining from 6.69 to 6.67, but MND's daily rates tell a different story with a drop from 6.88 to 6.68.  That 0.20% decline would certainly be enough to account for the jump in activity, especially in a market where the outright activity is so historically low. Other highlights from this week's MBA survey: Refi share of total apps increased to 46.8% from 38.7% Share of VA applications increased to 16.3% from 13.6% 5/1 ARM rates dropped to 5.81 from 6.24

December 11, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Dec 11, 2024 Mortgage Rates Started Lower, But Ended Higher Wed, Dec 11, 2024 3:32PM Mortgage rates were having a pretty decent day at first.  The bond market was only slightly weaker overnight (implies some upward pressure on rates), but quickly improved after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 8:30am ET.  Notably, CPI was right in line with forecasts--something that often results in lower conviction and volatility for interest rates.  We only tend to see big reactions to 'as-expected' numbers on the most closely watched reports.  In other words, today's market reaction confirms just how closely CPI is being watched. 8:30am ET is early enough in the ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally Wed, Dec 11, 2024 4:16PM Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally It was a day for "explanations" in the bond market with the morning rally needing to be explained in the context of CPI data that came in right on the screws and a subsequent sell-off that also seemed to happen for no apparent reason.  In fact, selling continued even af... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:29AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:29AM EST Other News Mortgage Applications Surge (Relatively) as Rates Drop (Relatively) Wed, Dec 11, 2024 3:08PM The Mortgage Bankers Association is out with the latest survey of mortgage applications and refinance activity led the charge this week.  In fact, purchase activity declined a bit and refis saw their best weekly gains since September. The following chart shows the week over week change in the refi index: At first glance, it would be easy to assume th... (read more) LO Jobs; Bulk Trade, Non-QM, DPA, CU Strategy, Servicing Tools; Top 50 Lender Ranking; Thoughts on AI Wed, Dec 11, 2024 11:42AM “I love Christmas lights! They remind me of the people who voted for (insert name of politician). They all hang together, half of them don’t work, and the ones that do aren’t all that bright.” There are, however, bright people who read this Commentary. In response to yesterday’s opening about what your plan should be upon finding someone lurking behind your ... (read more) Latest Video Former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin on Novemebr CPI data: The Fed may not ... Mortgage rates dip today: Here's what you need to know Mortgage refinance demand surges 27%, as interest rates drop for the third ... Treasury sells $39 billion in 10-year notes Around the Web CNBC Annual inflation rate accelerates to 2.7% in November, as expected Eye on Housing Inflation Remains Sticky Despite Easing Housing Costs Redfin Asking Rents Fall 0.7% to Lowest Level Since March 2022 CNBC Budget deficit swells in November, pushing fiscal 2025 shortfall 64% higher than a year ago Calculated Risk Blog YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter CNBC The CPI report Wednesday is expected to show progress on inflation has hit a wall Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 Calculated Risk Blog The Upward Slope of Real House Prices Eye on Housing Credit Still Tight, But Builders Finally Get Some Relief from Interest Rates Calculated Risk Blog MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey Calculated Risk Blog CPI Preview CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as investors look to consumer inflation data CNBC European Central Bank heads for last rate cut of year but jumbo move seems off the table

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