The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo publish the Housing Market Index (HMI) each month. The industry refers to this as "builder confidence" and December's number came out today. It was right in line with November's, and it suggests builders are increasingly honing in on a relatively gloomy baseline in the bigger picture. There are several ways to approach the languishing of the index, with the easiest being some combination of single family construction (which capture the initial drop in 2022) and multi-family construction (which, along with persistently high rates, helps explain why the index may not have recovered). Both are charted below. Ultimately, actual construction figures are a better indicator of the housing market than sentiment surveys, but the latter can offer some insight to trends and future opportunities.  On that note, the component of the builder survey that tracks the outlook for 6 months into the future continues moving to the highest levels since 2022.  As seen the following chart, it's less "sideways" and better described as gently trending higher. Other highlights from today's release: 31% of builders cut prices in December, vs 31% in Nov Average price reduction was also unchanged at 5% Sales incentives were used in 60% of transactions, also unchanged from Nov

December 17, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Dec 17, 2024 Mortgage Rates Effectively Unchanged Ahead of Fed Announcement Tue, Dec 17, 2024 3:36PM Mortgage rates have been having a much calmer week compared to last week.  Monday brought a modest decline versus last Friday and today's rates are effectively unchanged.  While the average lender is still noticeably higher compared to the first few days of the month, this resilience helps make a case that rates aren't eager to revisit the higher levels seen during most of November. Volatility could increase tomorrow afternoon following the Fed's rate announcement.  As a reminder, the Fed DOES NOT set mortgage rates and a Fed rate cut DOES NOT mean mortgage rates will go down ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Calm and Resilient as Bonds Wait For Powell and The Dot Plot Tue, Dec 17, 2024 3:58PM Calm and Resilient as Bonds Wait For Powell and The Dot Plot Whereas last week saw the bond market continue selling off without overt provocation, the first two days of the present week have seen far more equanimity and even resilience. Today's example involved a modest rally following a mixed bag of Retail Sales dat... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:15AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:15AM EST Other News Builder Confidence Remains Low, But Sales Expectations Are Increasing Tue, Dec 17, 2024 3:24PM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo publish the Housing Market Index (HMI) each month. The industry refers to this as "builder confidence" and December's number came out today. It was right in line with November's, and it suggests builders are increasingly honing in on a relatively gloomy baseline in the bigger picture. There ... (read more) DPA, Subservicing, Pricing, AVM Products; USDA and VA News; Monetary Policy and Year-End Tue, Dec 17, 2024 11:20AM Number progressions can be deceiving and surprising. Thank you to Eric D. who reminded me of “The Wheat and the Chessboard” example, guaranteed to surprise anyone. What is also surprising is that between 2022 and 2023, the Hispanic population accounted for nearly 71 percent of the overall growth of the United States population, driven primarily by Hispanic b... (read more) Latest Video The Fed needs to wait to cut, says Bleakley’s Peter Boockvar Former Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George: I would not cut rates this week Retail sales rose 0.7% in November, better than expected Builder sentiment in December remains unchanged from November Around the Web CNBC The Fed has a big interest rate decision coming Wednesday. Here's what to expect CNBC Here's what the Trump presidency could mean for the housing market, experts say CNBC Federal student loan forgiveness opportunities lost to those who refinance, CFPB warns CNBC With the Fed poised to cut rates, 'there's an urgency to act now' to get best returns on cash, expert says Eye on Housing Builder Confidence Steady but Signs of Future Optimism in 2025 Marketwatch Retail sales jump on strong auto and Internet receipts. U.S. economy stays strong. CNBC The Fed is likely to cut rates, but some worry it may not be the right move, CNBC survey found Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in November CNBC Treasury yields inch higher as investors look to economic data ahead of Fed rate decision Eye on Housing Single-Family Permits Up in October 2024 Eye on Housing U.S. Trade Deficit: Balancing Act Still Yet to Appear

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