Heading into the first part of December, mortgage rates were at their lowest levels in a month and a half.  Much of the improvement from the recent highs occurred in a single week (the last week of November).  That made for an obvious and logical uptick in refinance applications the following week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) application survey.  In the latest numbers reported this morning, the refinance index didn't change much after that, which is "good" at face value because it means refi activity remained at the modestly elevated levels reported last week.  But things start looking less than good when we add context from the September mini-refi-surge. As has been and continues to be the case, none of the recent activity amounts to much when compared to the true refi booms of the past. Unfortunately, that line will have an even harder time moving up in the coming weeks.  This afternoon's Fed announcement was not well received by the rate market.  Mortgage rates are moving up quickly even though the Fed cut its policy rate. The average lender is already back up to the recent highs seen in early November. Movement in purchase applications has been less interesting and less eventful by comparison.  Simply put, there hasn't been much movement for at least a year. Other highlights from today's data: Refi apps accounted for 46.7% of the total vs 46.8 last time FHA share of total apps increased to 17.6 from 16.5 VA share declined to 15.3 from 16.3 Rates rose to 6.75 from 6.67 (note: that refers to MBA's survey rate for last week.  Average daily rates are back over 7% as of this afternoon)

December 18, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Dec 18, 2024 Mortgage Rates Jump Abruptly Higher After The Fed's Rate Cut Wed, Dec 18, 2024 4:19PM If anyone needed any further convincing that a Fed rate cut is no guarantee of lower mortgage rates, today is a great piece of evidence.  Perhaps "great" is the wrong word.  There was nothing great about the mortgage rate movement following today's Fed rate cut. The average lender is at least 0.20% higher than earlier this morning.  Lenders are still in the process of adjusting their rate sheets, so the total damage could vary slightly by the time we're able to run the full numbers.  Either way, the top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate will easily be back over 7% for the ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Stronger Start After Initial Weakness Wed, Dec 18, 2024 11:31AM Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have been pushing back in fits and starts in early trading.  This has been a more uneven process for MBS as 5.5 coupons lost a majority of their early AM gains by 10:45am ET and then bounced back to nearly the best levels just after 11am.  10yr yields have been more even-keeled in their return to modestly ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:29AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:29AM EST Other News Modest Refi Surge Was Fun While it Lasted Wed, Dec 18, 2024 4:06PM Heading into the first part of December, mortgage rates were at their lowest levels in a month and a half.  Much of the improvement from the recent highs occurred in a single week (the last week of November).  That made for an obvious and logical uptick in refinance applications the following week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (M... (read more) Highest Building Permits Since February Despite Slower Housing Starts Wed, Dec 18, 2024 3:40PM The Census Bureau releases its report on New Residential Construction each month which offers 3 key metrics: building permits, housing starts, and housing completions.  Of those, the first two are most closely watched. There is typically a solid buffer between permits and starts.  After all, housing construction cannot "start" unless it is "permit... (read more) Price and Credit Breaks, Valuation, Verification, Marketing Tools; FHA and Reverse News Wed, Dec 18, 2024 11:59AM “When a woman says, ‘What?’ it’s not because she didn’t hear you. It’s because she’s giving you a chance to change what you said.” Things are always a changin’. Now the press is filled with another potential government shutdown looming. (My money is on “kick the can down the road.”) At the state level, how much should, or can, a state step in to address free... (read more) Latest Video Fed Chair Powell calls Wednesday's rate cut a 'closer call' but the 'right ... Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks after Fed cuts interest rates by a quar... Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points Fed expected to follow through with 25 bps cut today, says former Atlanta F... Around the Web CNBC The Fed sees only two rate cuts in 2025, fewer than previously projected CNBC The Fed cut interest rates by another 25 basis pointsheres what will get cheaper CNBC U.S. auto sales next year expected to be best since 2019 CNBC The Fed has a big interest rate decision coming Wednesday. Here's what to expect CNBC Mortgage demand drops for the first time in 5 weeks, after interest rates rise Eye on Housing Property Taxes Revenue Surpasses $200 Billion CNBC Federal student loan forgiveness opportunities lost to those who refinance, CFPB warns Eye on Housing Single-Family Starts Posts Solid Gain While Multifamily Falters Calculated Risk Blog Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November Eye on Housing Builder Confidence Steady but Signs of Future Optimism in 2025 CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as Fed rate decision time nears Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November Calculated Risk Blog AIA: Architecture Billings "Flat" in November; Multi-family Billings Turn Slightly Positive

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