Just in time for the big jump in interest rates seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, the latest Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows sales at the highest seasonally adjusted pace since March.  Compared to the same time last year, sales are up 6.1%--the best year over year improvement since June 2021. To be fair to the data, it is definitely looking better than most of the past year and a half. It's also true that adding 1 to 1 is a 100% increase while adding 1 to 100 is only a 1% increase. In other words, it's great that we're up 6.1% year over year--no objections there--but in broader context, we're really just muddling through home sales purgatory. Much like our assessment of things like mortgage applications, this sideways grind at long-term lows could also be seen as a "can't get any worse" moment.  Therefore, it can only get better. NAR's Yun agrees, saying "Home sales momentum is building. More buyers have entered the market as the economy continues to add jobs, housing inventory grows compared to a year ago, and consumers get used to a new normal of mortgage rates between 6% and 7%." It remains to be seen how home sales will react now that rates are back over 7%--a development is perhaps too recent to have been considered in Yun's assessment. 

December 19, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Dec 19, 2024 If You're Struggling to Understand This Week's Mortgage Rate Spike, This is For You Thu, Dec 19, 2024 3:50PM We received some anonymous feedback regarding recent rate commentary that serves as a good reminder that not everyone may be picking up what we're putting down, or worse yet, picking up things that we never put down in the first place.   We spend a lot of time talking about how the bond market prices in the impact of Fed rate cuts on the occasions where those rate cuts are expected with a high probability--as was the case with yesterday's cut.  Specifically, Tuesday's rate commentary said: " The market is already well aware that the Fed is cutting rates tomorrow and those expe... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Weaker Momentum Continues, Regardless of Data Thu, Dec 19, 2024 10:29AM The takeaway from yesterday's Fed announcement was twofold.  First, the Fed is much closer to being done cutting rates than it anticipated in September. This accounts for the sharp sell-off in bonds and stocks.  The second takeaway is simply a confirmation of our recent change of heart regarding inflation data.  Powell noticeably downplayed th... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:15AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:15AM EST Other News Highest Existing Home Sales Since March Thu, Dec 19, 2024 3:33PM Just in time for the big jump in interest rates seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, the latest Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows sales at the highest seasonally adjusted pace since March.  Compared to the same time last year, sales are up 6.1%--the best year over year improvement since June 2021. To be f... (read more) Non-QM Servicing, HELOC, POS Products; FHA News; Rate React to Fed's New Dots Thu, Dec 19, 2024 12:04PM When I see a headline with “housing” and “crash” in it, I think it is merely clickbait, and the author is trying to attract readers. For example: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported on the performance of first-lien mortgages in the federal banking system during the third quarter of 2024. The OCC Mortgage Metrics Report, Third Quarter... (read more) Latest Video Mortgage rates rise after Fed rate cut Bond Report: 10Y yield at 6.5-month high Positive yield curve is going to be a huge tailwind to regional banks, says... November leading economic indicators and existing home sales show positive ... Around the Web Forex Live The lesson from Powell: It's kind of fallen apart Calculated Risk Blog Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024 CNBC November home sales surged more than expected, boosted by lower mortgage rates CNBC The Fed sees only two rate cuts in 2025, fewer than previously projected CNBC The Fed's rate outlook has rattled markets. Here's what it means for global central banks CNBC The Fed cut interest rates by another 25 basis pointsheres what will get cheaper CNBC U.S. auto sales next year expected to be best since 2019 Marketwatch Jobless claims subside after Thanksgiving pop and give good vibes for the U.S. economy CNBC 10-year Treasury yield hovers above 4.5% after Fed signals slower rate cutting cycle CNBC Bank of England holds interest rates at 4.75% after inflation uptick Eye on Housing Single-Family Starts Posts Solid Gain While Multifamily Falters Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate Calculated Risk Blog AIA: Architecture Billings "Flat" in November; Multi-family Billings Turn Slightly Positive

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