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Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains
In absolute terms, it was a moderately active day for bonds as 10yr yields moved inside a respectable 7bp range (4.37 to 4.30). In day-over-day terms, we're left with merely modest gains, but no one's complaining. Early trading raised concerns about a technical break above the 4.34 ceiling. As we discussed yesterday, such breakouts can just as often serve as cues for buyers to get back in the pool, and that appears to have been the case today. Stocks had one of their calmest sessions in recent memory and bonds didn't exhibit any of the typical correlation. U.S. bond traders simply showed up in line to buy some bonds, and that was that.
Econ Data / Events
Consumer Confidence
92.9 vs 94.0 f'cast, 98.3 prev
lowest reading since July 2022
expectations index 65.2 vs 72.9 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:42 AM Weaker overnight, but stronger after 8:20am CME Open. 10yr down half a bp at 4.337 and MBS up 1 tick (.03)
12:51 PM Bond rally continues. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.3
03:49 PM Off the best levels, but still stronger. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3bps at 4.312
MBS Commentary
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Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains
In absolute terms, it was a moderately active day for bonds as 10yr yields moved inside a respectable 7bp range (4.37 to 4.30). In day-over-day terms, we're left w... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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One of the key principles of mortgage rate movement has to do with the frequency of mortgage rate changes. Specifically, mortgage lenders prefer to update rates once per day. This is notable because mortgage rates are based on bonds, and bonds ... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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This week I head to San Diego for MCT Exchange 2025, and my email has been heating up. “Rob, are you hearing about a big jump in lock volume last week?” Yes… it may not be just you. As they say, a rising tide raises all boats. “Rob, are you hearing a... (read more)
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