Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains In absolute terms, it was a moderately active day for bonds as 10yr yields moved inside a respectable 7bp range (4.37 to 4.30). In day-over-day terms, we're left with merely modest gains, but no one's complaining. Early trading raised concerns about a technical break above the 4.34 ceiling. As we discussed yesterday, such breakouts can just as often serve as cues for buyers to get back in the pool, and that appears to have been the case today. Stocks had one of their calmest sessions in recent memory and bonds didn't exhibit any of the typical correlation.  U.S. bond traders simply showed up in line to buy some bonds, and that was that. Econ Data / Events Consumer Confidence  92.9 vs 94.0 f'cast, 98.3 prev lowest reading since July 2022 expectations index 65.2 vs 72.9 prev Market Movement Recap 09:42 AM Weaker overnight, but stronger after 8:20am CME Open.  10yr down half a bp at 4.337 and MBS up 1 tick (.03) 12:51 PM Bond rally continues.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.3 03:49 PM Off the best levels, but still stronger.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3bps at 4.312

March 25, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 25, 2025 Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher on Average, But Some Lenders Are Lower Tue, Mar 25, 2025 4:02PM One of the key principles of mortgage rate movement has to do with the frequency of mortgage rate changes.  Specifically, mortgage lenders prefer to update rates once per day. This is notable because mortgage rates are based on bonds, and bonds are constantly trading.  The compromise is that mortgage lenders will indeed change rates more than once a day, in cases where bonds move enough to force their hands. This concept is relevant today because it explains why rates are both higher and lower, depending on the lender in question. Yesterday, bonds were moving in such a way that pro... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains Tue, Mar 25, 2025 4:25PM Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains In absolute terms, it was a moderately active day for bonds as 10yr yields moved inside a respectable 7bp range (4.37 to 4.30). In day-over-day terms, we're left with merely modest gains, but no one's complaining. Early trading raised concerns about a technical break above... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 3:09AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 3:09AM EST Other News Customer Experience, Internal Audit, Pre-Approval Tools; CFPB Still Here; FHA, USDA Changes Tue, Mar 25, 2025 11:45AM This week I head to San Diego for MCT Exchange 2025, and my email has been heating up. “Rob, are you hearing about a big jump in lock volume last week?” Yes… it may not be just you. As they say, a rising tide raises all boats. “Rob, are you hearing about an uptick in FHA delinquencies?” Yes, absolutely, and for quite some time. These high margin, low down pa... (read more) Latest Video Housing will not be a fast-paced market in the spring: Brown Harris Stevens... CNBC Global CFO Survey: 15% of businesses say they'll pass tariff costs on ... Consumer confidence comes in lower than estimates Recession isn't the base case, but the likelihood has increased, says JPMor... Around the Web CNBC Federal housing agency will not cut Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits, new director says CNBC Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hits 12-year low Eye on Housing Lower Mortgage Rates, Better Affordability CNBC FHFA will not cut Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits Calculated Risk Blog New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February FXStreet Composite PMI Rises To 53.5 CNBC U.S. Treasury yields edge higher as Trump's tariffs are expected to be more limited in scope Calculated Risk Blog Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Reuters Morning Bid: Tariff exclusion hopes prop up markets FHFA FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2 Percent in January; Up 4.8 Percent from Last Year CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors await PMI data Calculated Risk Blog Housing March 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 30.3% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range

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