It's not uncommon for certain medications to come with warnings about avoiding certain activities like driving or operating heavy machinery due to the risk of drowsiness. But medications aren't the only causes of such sleepiness.  Just ask the latest New Home Sales report from Census Bureau! There are several ways to establish the soporific nature of this data. First off, the market is always most interested in data when it falls far from the consensus among economic forecasters. At an annual pace of 676k homes versus a median forecast of 680k, this one was about as close as they come. Perhaps more importantly, the sales count hasn't been more than 70k higher or lower than that for the past 2 years.  70k might sound like a lot, but consider that it only took a few months to see sales jump more than 400k in 2020, or that the peak to trough move during the financial crisis was over 1 million homes per year. In other words, sales may be exhibiting some month to month volatility, but they've been almost perfectly sideways, on average, for just over 2 years now. In regional terms, The Midwest and the South did all of the heavy lifting, adding 13k and 27k homes respectively.  The Northeast brought the national tally down by 6k and the West did the most damage at 22k.  The latest news release from the Census Bureau is always available here: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

March 28, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 28, 2025 Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Paradoxical Reaction to Slightly Higher Inflation Fri, Mar 28, 2025 9:34AM Inflation, via this morning's PCE price index, came in slightly hotter than expected, but bonds are rallying in response. There are a few ways to approach this paradox both in the long and short term.  On a more nitty gritty level, the unrounded PCE numbers were fairly close to consensus and that can always help mitigate unfriendly data. In the bigger p... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 5:48AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 5:48AM EST Other News New Home Sales Should Come With a Warning Fri, Mar 28, 2025 3:52PM It's not uncommon for certain medications to come with warnings about avoiding certain activities like driving or operating heavy machinery due to the risk of drowsiness. But medications aren't the only causes of such sleepiness.  Just ask the latest New Home Sales report from Census Bureau! There are several ways to establish the soporific nature of t... (read more) Purchase Applications Improve; Refinancing Ebbs Fri, Mar 28, 2025 4:19PM This week's update on refinance application demand accurately reflects the fact that rates came into the week near their recent highs, but managed to fall in line with recent lows several days later. The net effect for the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Refinance Index was a modest drop from last week while remaining elevated relative to the trend seen ... (read more) Correspondent, Non-QM Training, HELOC Programs; Education, Webinars, and Events; PCE vs. CPI Primer Fri, Mar 28, 2025 11:49AM “What is the difference between the government and organized crime? Only one of them is organized.” (Suitable for any administration.) Government policy, economics, and technology have been the three big topics at mortgage conferences for many conference seasons, and this MCT event in San Diego is no exception. “Rob, are you seeing an increase in optimism, d... (read more) Latest Video Former Richmond Fed President Lacker on February PCE data: The Fed is in a ... Consumer spending will deteriorate due to tariffs: Wells Fargo's Jay Bryson Retail sales are likely to bounce back in April and May, says Ed Yardeni February pending home sales up slightly from estimates Around the Web CNBC Late student loan bills can drop credit scores by up to 171 points, Federal Reserve warns CNBC Core inflation in February hits 2.8%, hotter than expected; income jumps 0.8% Calculated Risk Blog Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1% CNBC Consumer sentiment worsens as inflation fears grow, University of Michigan survey shows CNBC Student loan borrowers can once again apply for income-driven repayment plansthese 3 options are available Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.4% below 2022 peak NAR Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February CNBC Treasury yields are higher as investors weigh new auto tariffs CNBC 10-year yield ticks lower ahead of key inflation indicator release Forex Live US Q4 final GDP +2.4% vs +2.3% expected Forex Live US initial jobless claims 224K vs 225K estimate Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4% Fannie Mae Mortgage Rates Expected to Move Lower in 2025 and 2026

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