Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously worthy of credit for the bond rally that followed, largely because the bond rally that followed was fairly small. Most of the day's gains were in place beforehand.  The data (lower ISM/employment, job openings, and job quits) helped keep bonds near the stronger end of the day's range, and thus, the stronger end of the 5 week range. There's more data on Wednesday, but the biggest wild card may be the long-awaited tariff announcement in the afternoon. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing 49.0 vs 49.5 f'cast, 50.3 prev Prices 69.4 vs 65.0 f'cast Employment 44.7 vs 47.6 prev Job openings (lower = better for rates) 7.568m vs 7.630m f'cast Job Quits (lower = better for rates) 3.195m vs 3.266m prev Market Movement Recap 10:05 AM Stronger overnight and at best levels after 10am data.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.1bps at 4.154 12:55 PM Sideways and slightly choppy all morning.  MBS still up 6 ticks  (.19) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.161 04:07 PM Still flat.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.165.

April 1, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Apr 1, 2025 Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly a Month Tue, Apr 1, 2025 3:29PM While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on the lower edge of that range. Because there's not much of a gap between the highs and the lows, it didn't take a major move to facilitate today's little victory, but it is notable that we've seen 3 victories in a row now.  In other words, rates have fallen by a modest amount on each of the past 3 business days. To reemphasize the narrowness of the range, we were at the highest levels 4 days ago. Today's victory wasn't necessarily a given.... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck Tue, Apr 1, 2025 4:19PM Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously worthy of credit for the bond rally that followed, largely because the bond rally that followed was fairly small. Most of the day's gains were in place beforehand.  The data (lower ISM/employment, job opening... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 3:09AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 3:09AM EST Other News Angel Oak/Brookfield Deal and More Mergers; Audit, POS, Non-QM, Automation Tools ; Webcasts and Training This Week Tue, Apr 1, 2025 11:41AM This ain’t no April Fools economic news: not only has Hooters declared bankruptcy, but apparently there is yet another push to have credit unions pay income taxes. “Right now, leaders in Congress are discussing how to fund an extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Some lawmakers are considering a new tax on all credit unions as part of the solution. ... (read more) Latest Video Tariffs to push all home prices higher Tariffs could be a major rewiring of the domestic and global economy, says ... Job openings and labor turnover 7.57M vs. 7.6M estimated The Fed's next cut likely to be based on a weakening labor market, says Mac... Around the Web CNBC Trump's upcoming tariffs 'will be effective immediately,' White House says The Basis Point Rocket acquiring moving companies now too?! Wait, that makes sense. Eye on Housing Affordability Pyramid Shows 94 Million Households Cannot Buy a $400,000 Home Eye on Housing Soft Job Openings Estimate for Construction PR Newswire Manufacturing PMI® at 49%; March 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Eye on Housing Private Residential Construction Spending Rises in February The Basis Point Rocket buying Mr. Cooper for $9.4b creates largest U.S. mortgage shop by far CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors brace for U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy rollout Seeking Alpha Chicago PMI rises more than expected in March Calculated Risk Blog Housing March 31st Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 30.6% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year CNBC Euro zone inflation dips to 2.2% in March as U.S. tariffs loom Federal Reserve FEDS Paper: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting from the1990s to 2020s: Developments and New Challenges

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