Congratulations to Hawaii which became a state fifty years ago today. We’ve had plenty of economic cycles, small and large, in fifty years, although in general rates have been coming down since 1981. And we’ve had a flat or inverted U.S. yield curve for several months. Inverted yield curves don’t cause a recession: Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is the technical definition of a recession. Nine major economies have entered a recession or are on the verge of one, adding to fears the U.S. could see a downturn. The nine economies are Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Russia, Singapore, South Korea and the UK. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says recession risks in the US are low despite warning signals from bond markets, which he contends are mostly driven by circumstances outside the country. "We have nothing to fear about a recession right now except for the fear of recession." Lots more in the capital markets section below.
Lender Products and Services
One warehouse lending organization gets noticed in the marketplace for doing things the right way. ResX Warehouse Lending is a division of Connecticut-based United Bank, a respected commercial lender with a long track record of building long-term relationships with its clients. They’re not new to the warehouse lending business, but if you haven’t heard the name yet, it’s only because they’re not promoting themselves with every new trend or fad to hit the market. These are serious experts looking to build relationships with clients like you who are focused on sustainable growth…one relationship at a time. ResX Warehouse’s clients rave about the lender’s proactive approach. And that expertise is provided by seasoned, top-level professionals. Customers also love their commitment to delivering more effective and efficient processes. Combined with United Bank’s full-service array of products and resources, ResX is the ideal platform for the correspondent focused on real growth. Learn More.
Did you miss the Encompass Investor Connect™ webinar, hosted by TMS and Ellie Mae last week? Well it’s now available to stream from the TMS website! Learn how Investor Connect automates and reduces time of loan purchase, minimizes conditions, and ensures data security of your loans. Watch the webinar now to find out all of the benefits of partnering with TMS and Encompass Investor Connect.
American Advisors Group (AAG, NMLS #9392), whose combination of vision, energy and execution has made it the nation’s top reverse mortgage lender, is now utilizing that same vigor to rapidly grow its wholesale division. The company has invested vast resources in overhauling its marketing materials, adding more product-specific, compliance-reviewed content that its wholesale partners can further customize and curate for their specific needs seven days a week, 24 hours a day. In addition, AAG’s immense service commitment and the sales momentum it continues to create for its partners has its servicing turnaround times at a record pace. As a high-integrity, home equity solutions leader, AAG is easy to align with; their culture supports and advances the goals of its employees, partners and the communities it serves. Contact AAG today to learn more.
“You know us for our rates and programs, you love us for our service, now get to know our Renovation programs. loanDepot Wholesale makes Renovation lending easy. Our Renovation Lending Suite includes programs designed to accommodate both large and small home improvement and repair projects. Giving you more options for your real estate partners and clients to meet their homeownership needs. Flexible solutions that include FHA 203k Limited and Standard as well as FNMA HomeStyle®. loanDepot Wholesale – proud sponsor of improving homes across America. Contact us today to learn more.”
For over 30 years Stearns Wholesale Lending has brought innovative products to market with a personal touch. Unique products like the FLEX Non-QM product series with our Flex 24, Flex 36, and Flex 48 brokers can now offer a variety of options with Bank Statement qualification, 1-year income documentation and Expanded Ratios up to 55%. And CalHFA with up to 103% CLTV financing on purchases, high balance options available, and NEW increased income limits as of June 2019 all help more borrowers obtain homeownership. Innovative products paired with a sales-orientated culture allows Stearns to meet the needs of our brokers. Relationships matter! Hear Regional VP Brian Herbert explain our secret sauce, the support, backing, and structure of a large company but with a small company feel. If you’re looking to join a company that with a BOLD Future reach out today.
IR Data Solutions, a provider of big data analytics and business intelligence to improve consumer targeting and retention strategies, announced the addition of David Eisenberg as its new VP of Data and Analytics, Sales. Eisenberg will be responsible for identifying business opportunities as well as developing and executing business growth objectives, sales strategies, and marketing campaigns to increase client base and product awareness. Before IR Data Solutions, Eisenberg was a Senior Account Executive for Experian and Vice President of Regional Sales for Citi Bank. “David is a solid asset to this growing team. His experience in executing strategic initiatives is vital to the company’s plan to expand our services and branch out to other markets,” stated Patrick Buckner, President of IR Data Solutions. “His skill of utilizing insights to identify the customers’ real needs will be instrumental in how we develop our solutions.” Click here to connect with David.
Capital Markets
The headline grabber recently has been that the spread ten- and two-year risk-free Treasury securities became negative or that yield curve became inverted. This is significant because a negative spread between these two yields has historically been a predicter of a recession in many cases, but not the cause of a recession. The last time this happened was in 2007. U.S. economic data, however, remains upbeat with retail sales beating expectations and rising 0.7% in July as a 2.8% jump in non-store (online) retailers boosted the overall gain. Additionally, consumers will be spared new tariffs in September as the Trump administration announced a delay to their enactment. Manufacturing continues its downward trend but the current contraction is not yet a at level that should pull the rest of the economy into recession. Global recession fears were stoked by economic contraction in Germany, Europe’s largest economy. This spurred talk of stimulus from European central banks. The Fed will continue to monitor economic data and has said its goal remains sustaining the current expansion. With that, the expectation remains for a rate cut following the September FOMC meeting.
Yes, the trade war with China has dominated financial headlines and market movements. China devalued its currency in retaliation to the latest round of tariffs from the Trump Administration. Additionally, German industrial production for June came in weak and the expectation is for that weakness to continue. This resulted in a flight to quality as equities sold off and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell to a low of 1.62 percent recently as the yield curve become more steeply inverted. The market’s implied probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is near 100% for September, however some analysts aren’t sure the Fed will make a back-to-back move. Much attention will be paid to commentary from Federal Reserve officials following the annual symposium at Jackson Hole this week. While there will be plenty of debate as to whether the Fed will or should cut rates again in September the broad consensus is that they will cut again before the end of the year.
Economists expect Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to suggest the central bank is receptive to further interest-rate decreases when he speaks Friday at an annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Powell is scheduled to speak on challenges confronting monetary policy.
Looking at stocks and bonds yesterday, equities were pressured and markets traded defensively ahead of today’s Fed minutes. U.S. Treasuries reclaimed their losses from Monday, including the 10-year closing Tuesday -4 bps to 1.56 percent on the back of reports that the Trump administration is considering a temporary cut to the payroll tax in order to prevent consumption from decreasing. While the White House was quick to quash that report, President Trump did reiterate his call for aggressive rate cuts. In other news, the FDIC approved a loosening of the Volcker Rule to simplify regulations that govern proprietary trading, though the change still needs to be approved by the SEC and the Federal Reserve. Separately, the People's Bank of China fixed the yuan at a modestly lower level and lowered China's prime rate. And finally, Germany is now selling zero-coupon 30-year bunds.
The minutes from the July 30/31 FOMC meeting will be the most anticipated event on today’s calendar, though they don’t come until the afternoon ET. Market participants will be looking for more clarity on the FOMC’s thoughts regarding “mid-cycle” adjustments either from the minutes or on Friday when Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole. The calendar has kicked off, though, as mortgage applications decreased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 16. Refinances failed to see another jump as the 30-year rate didn’t fall quite as much as Treasury rates. Later this morning brings existing home sales for July, the latest 10-year forecast from the CBO, and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending August 16. We begin the day with agency MBS prices worse .125 and the 10-year yielding 1.58 percent.
Employment
“Caliber Home Loans, Inc. is having an awesome 2019, and we have the numbers to prove it! As of July 1st, we reported being 13% ahead of our sales plan, and we ended the same month with record-breaking monthly volume that exceeded $6 billion overall. But Caliber is more than loan volume – we’re a great place to build a career too. There are numerous reasons to be a producer here, but we’ve summed them up to the top 5: technology, support, products, servicing, and a retail focus. Individually, these can help you stand out in a competitive marketplace, but combined they can make you unstoppable. Click here to read the top 5 reasons we’re attracting top producers from around the country and understand all the ways a career at Caliber can help YOU reach new levels of success.”
Your Home Financial, powered by NewRez, is looking for an ambitious purchase-oriented Loan Officer to work as a Preferred Lender inside one of the busiest and fastest-growing real estate companies in the greater Cleveland area, Russell Real Estate Services. As the newest Joint Venture partner of national mortgage lender NewRez, Russell Real Estate Services provides an outstanding platform for LOs to expand their purchase pipeline. “For a skilled loan officer looking to grow their business, our joint venture model provides a tremendous and opportunity," said Vince Daino VP of Recruiting and Business Development for NewRez, "With our platform and a partner like Russell, the sky is the limit." Contact Vince Daino, VP of Recruiting and Business Development to learn more about this role and other open positions available within NewRez.
Thrive Mortgage is excited to announce the addition of two powerhouse teams in Texas. Ethan Tan and Amanda Van Nguyen have joined Thrive in the Houston, TX market, and Harold Huguley is bringing extensive VA experience to the San Antonio area. As long-time industry veterans, and in Harold’s case Air Force Veteran, Thrive is increasing its presence in the Lone Star State. “We were looking for a community of professionals coupled with a laser focus on the consumer. For a company that uses its technology to enhance that client experience,” stated Tan. Huguley added, “I have a specialized niche in serving my VA clients. The versatility of Thrive’s operations, care for the client, and ability to support my veterans was the key to my decision to be a part of this amazing company.” To speak with members of Thrive’s recruiting teams, please visit join.thrivemortgage.com.
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