If you don't think that the gap between the haves and have-nots is widening, Forbes reports about 50% of global wealth is controlled by 1% of the population. While you ruminate on that, here's a little political trivia. Yesterday was not a presidential election, but the last time the Republicans won the White House without the name Nixon or Bush appearing on the ticket was in 1928, 86 years ago, when Herbert Hoover won with Charles Curtis as his Vice President. The American public voted, and the overwhelming majority is sick of political news.

We can't have move-up buyers without first time home buyers. And the number of those continues to slip for a variety of reasons - just ask any LO. In fact first-time home buyers made up the smallest share of U.S. buyers in nearly three decades, a traditionally solid slice of the housing market whose absence is raising questions about the impact of the crash on potential homeowners. Attribute it to student debt loads, lack of programs, the lack of desire for folks in their 20's to tie themselves down to a house, lack of affordability in some markets, whatever - it is a problem facing lenders and Realtors alike.

(Read More: First-Time Home-Buying Lowest Since 1987)

You know you're in the tall weeds of mortgage banking when the subject of ARMs come up; or better yet, when you're involved in a discussion on the securitization of such instruments, and while the overall share of agency issuance of ARMs has diminished since, say, 2008, overall demand has picked up in 2014 (compared to 2013). Total net issuance has increased over the past year due to higher purchase volumes and lower ARM to fixed refinances, and many analysts expect this trend to continue well into 2015. So what exactly is the number? Year to date, gross and net issuance of Hybrid ARMs have been $31b and -$9bn, compared to $34bn and -$28bn for the same period last year. Net issuance was higher this year compared with last year despite lower home sales volumes, potentially due to an increase in the ARM share of purchase issuance and a decline in the share of ARM loans refinancing into fixed rate products. Many analysts point to the smaller lender to explain this trend. One of the key trends in the issuance of Hybrid ARM securities in 2014 has been the increasing concentration of smaller lenders. As many in the industry know, large lenders have scaled back their participation in Hybrid ARMs as well as fixed rate mortgages. Quicken, Flagstar, Nationstar and Greentree are some of the lenders that have increased market share in the Hybrid ARM product.

Recently, a young LO pulled me aside and whispered, "Isn't issuance off from 2013 expectations....I mean, by a lot?" Yes. Let's all scream it from the rooftops, though. What's even more disconcerting about the shortfall is that expectations, and mortgage analyst's prognosticating abilities, were made easier by a key Fed assumption: rates will be static in 2014. As most know, this will not always be the case. So what happens to 2015 predictions of gross/net MBS issuance given rates inching upwards? As anyone who didn't fall sleep in MacroEcon class could tell you, total issuance would go down. Over the past few weeks I've run across a few papers giving varying scenarios of how '15 may play out. What follows is really a hybrid of a few research papers, but with a common theme, and similar outcomes. Given that the 30 year rate is currently hovering around 4.00% at the moment, and all things being equal, if rates remained unchanged for the year, gross agency issuance is expected to be slightly less than $1Trillion. Given a 30 year rate of 4.25%, gross issuance is rightfully expected to be somewhere in the $850-800 Billion range for the year; 4.500% 30 year and volumes drop again to less than $725 Billion. Any optimism with MBS investors, or originators, is hinged upon a multitude of exogenous events which may push rates lower, say by a quarter point.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments on a case involving Truth in Lending.

And the Wall Street Journal had an interesting article on the history of government in residential mortgage lending. 

Let's check in on some training, and upcoming national & local events! So in no particular order...

Register now for Colorado Mortgage Lender Associations Denver educational event on November 12th tackling the integrated disclosure rule. Prepare yourself with help from the experts.

MBA Residential Underwriting Basics, Part I: Eligibility register now. Webinar is scheduled for

Thursday, November 6 | 2:00 p.m.-3:30 p.m. ET and includes documentation review requirements and how to analyze eligibility requirements. MBA Residential Underwriting Basics, Part II: Income Webinar Register now on Thursday, November 13, 2014. Webinar topic is income underwriting fundamentals, including different methods of analyzing income and employment.

Register Now  for Mortgage Bankers Association of the Carolinas CFPB Marketing Services Agreement Enforcement update. Webinar is scheduled for October 28th. Also available, sign up for MBA Compliance Essentials: Surviving a CFPB RESPA Examination scheduled for October 29^th.

The Michigan Mortgage Lenders Association MMLA is celebrating 85 years as an association. Presidents Installation Banquet registration link scheduled for November 6th will honor it's past, present and future board members and spotlights our annual award recipients.

National Association of Realtors® Head to Big Easy to Address Real Estate Opportunities and Challenges for the 2014 REALTORS® Conference & Expo November 7th-10^th in New Orleans.

To register, contact Yolanda Byrd, 202-383-7515 or ybyrd@realtors.org.

Register for New Mexico Mortgage Lenders Association IMPORTANT MORTGAGE REGULATORY SEMINAR 8 Hour CE Comprehensive Certification Course. Topics include: New Rules for Bank and Non-Bank Mortgage Lenders, New RESPA/TILA Forms and Regulations, New Loan Originator Qualification Requirements, Complete Loan Applications, and what is coming from the CFPB. Seminar is scheduled for November 5, 2014 from 8:00am to 5:00pm with lunch included.

American Conference Institute's 3rd Annual Bank and Non-Bank Forum on Mortgage Servicing Compliance is scheduled for November 20th-21st register now to join industry participants discussing how to meet the challenges of the newly proposed set of rules from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) for mortgage servicers.

Register for California MBA Legal Issues Conference focuses on regulatory, QA, compliance & legislative Issues on Monday, December 8, 2014.

FHA Trainings:

November 5th FHA's free webinar I covering an Overview HUD Early Delinquency Activities and Loss Mitigation Program.

Sign up for free webinar on November 6th. Topic of discussion is Single Family Handbook: Origination through Post-Closing Overview.

November 19th  free webinar II.1covering HUD Loss Mitigation - Home Retention Options.

The FHA is offering a free one day Appraisal seminar on November 20th or November 21st at the Denver Homeownership Center.

December 3rd is Webinar II.2: HUD Loss Mitigation - Home Retention Options (FHA-HAMP).

December 10th is Webinar III: HUD Loss Mitigation - Home Disposition Options.

December 17th sign up for FHA's Webinar IV: Neighborhood Watch System - Servicer Tools.

FHA's free Webinar V.1: SFDMS - Reporting Basics is scheduled for January 7th 2015.

January 14th Webinar V.2: SFDMS - Reporting Examples.

January 21st Webinar V.3: SFDMS - Errors.

The Illinois Mortgage Bankers Association is hosting a mortgage industry seminar on November 6 in Naperville, Illinois. Topics include avoiding and responding to CFPB inquiries, the post-purchase and prefunding review process, an update from Fannie Mae on reps and warrants, and a state regulator update from the IDFPR. For more information go to www.imba.org or contact IMBAInfo@att.net to register for the seminar.

Sign up for Impac Mortgage Corp. Wholesale's Non-QM one day training event on November 13th training registration.

Lender Legal Update starts Friday November 07, 2014 and continues the first Friday of every month. This is a monthly half-hour call-in to address the latest regulatory and legal information from a practical business perspective. In this information-packed half-hour, attorney Ari Karen will examine the latest trends, strategies and practices impacting the lending industry, the impact they may have on your business, and potential solutions and opportunities. Register today to receive your Pin number for the call-in conference.

The MBA is hosting a Merger and Acquisitions workshop in Dallas on November 6th. Line-up of expert speakers to help both buyers and sellers navigate the M&A process. Operational, cultural, financial, tax, legal and regulatory considerations will be discussed during this one-day fly-in workshop. Whether you are considering valuing, acquiring or selling a branch or company, this is one workshop you don't want to miss.

MGIC has a variety of trainings available throughout the month of November. Topics include: UAD requirements, evaluating income and assets, MGIC MI basics, Self-employed borrowers basic and advanced, down payment hurdles, and student debt.

Wisconsin Mortgage Brokers Association, WMBA, seminar Featuring Two Industry Experts: The Integrated Mortgage Disclosures-- Changing from Old to New presented by: Phil Schulman and CFPB Enforcement Actions and CFPB Examination Procedures presented by: Holly Spencer Bunting is scheduled for November 12th.

Turning to the markets, there just isn't much going on out there, and as a proxy for the entire bond market the 10-yr yield has seemed content between 2.32-2.34% since last week. Yesterday we found out that the Trade Balance deficit widened to $43 billion in September, up from $40 billion in August. The ISM New York fell to 54.8 in October. Factory Orders slipped 0.6% to $499.4 billion in September.

I am fortunate to head to Nashville this morning (thus the early commentary), but we do have some news ahead of us today. We have the MBA's weekly survey on mortgage rates and application and activity and then at 8:15AM EST is October's ADP employment change (expected a touch higher from last month's +213k results). At 10AM EST rounds out the data along October non-manufacturing ISM (58.6 last), and after that the Treasury announces next week's quarterly refunding needs concerning 3s/10s/30s ($67B expected). The 10-yr is sitting at 2.35% and agency MBS prices are worse a shade.

Jobs and Announcements

In the correspondent & wholesale channels, "Veteran's Day is right around the corner and the question of where to send your VA loans should be crossing your mind. With over 20 SAR/LAPP underwriters on staff, one of the fastest growing players in the space is wholesale and correspondent lender Endeavor America Loan Services. Endeavor America recently received recognition from the Department of Veteran Affairs for its superior loan quality and being one of their top 50 lenders nationwide. Endeavor America offers its clients access to VA guides with no lender overlays. Examples: 100% cash-out, Manual UW and Manufactured Home Types. To learn how to become approved with EA, visit correspondent or wholesale.

Here's an update from Impac Mortgage Corp.: Steve Curry, SVP National Sales, and Todd Kesterson, Regional Manager, have rejoined the Wholesale Division. "With over 20 years of wholesale mortgage lending experience each, we welcome Steve and Todd's return at this critical time as we continue to establish our Non-QM lending products and overall company growth," said Frank Curry, SVP Wholesale Division. In fact, Impac Mortgage Corp. has announced that it is hiring experienced Regional Sales Managers and Account Executives across the country.  If you are interested, email your resume.  In line with its non-QM lending products, Impac is conducting a training seminar next week in Irvine, California.  This is a live event where Impac Mortgage Corp. will review how to identify the special circumstances of these underserved borrowers. AltQM^TM Income, AltQM^TM Investor, AltQM^TM Jumbo and AltQM^TM Agency and more being added to the series soon will be covered. You're advised to register via their wholesale website and encouraged to bring your loans with you to work one-on-one with underwriters and AEs.

Servicing continues to be an area of compliance and regulatory concern, and proper oversight has quietly been a deficiency in the market the past few years. Servicers beware though as the CFPB has made it clear that enforcement action will be taken against those violating basic servicing protocols. The GSEs and HUD guidelines state that the use of a sub-servicer does not diminish the risk of non-compliance for the master servicer. Subsequent QC, sister company to MQMR, focuses on servicing objectives through loan level servicing audits, onsite servicing reviews, and document custodian audits to assist master servicers in meeting their oversight objectives.  Here's an article Ben Madick wrote last year for Mortgage Compliance Magazine to inform the readers on some core concepts of a proper oversight program.  For more information, contact Ben Madick.