Can you believe it’s been five years since we were chuckling at, “I ran out of toilet paper and had to start using newspaper. Times are rough” and “The grocery stores in France look like tornadoes hit them. All that’s left is de brie.” Time and calendars are always interesting. Easter is not until April 20 this year. Changing the clocks happens this weekend, although Donald Trump has promised to do away with this (but probably not in the next five days). It’s been four years since Florida’s Surfside Condo collapse killed 98. Climate change deniers probably don’t believe gradually rising sea levels and don’t understand why Miami is spending hundreds of millions to increase the height of bridges and shore up flood control infrastructure if they don’t have to. But every insurance company, underwriter, and MBS investor is well aware of changing times. Things change. Remember when Skype was all the rage? It’s gone in May. (Today’s podcast can be found here and sponsored by Floify. Floify is an easy-to-configure point-of-sale platform that allows each branch or loan officer to customize its look and feel to meet the needs of their lending team, homebuyers, and market. Hear an interview with Floify’s Sofia Rossato on how to deliver an excellent customer experience in the point-of-sale space.)

Lender and Broker Products and Services

Historically, lenders have spent significant time and effort managing manual processes for re-evaluating loan eligibility and pricing when critical data changes such as credit scores, income, employment status or property value. ICE is addressing these challenges with the launch of a new Rate Lock Comparison Tool within Encompass®. Integrated with the ICE PPE product and pricing engine, users can now automatically monitor data changes, compare them against predefined locked loan criteria and set automation rules to trigger instant notifications - allowing loan officers to reprice and relock loans seamlessly within the Encompass system. This innovation streamlines workflows, reduces delays and errors, enhances risk management for secondary marketing teams and, ultimately, helps to process loans faster. Read the full announcement to learn more about the new Rate Lock Comparison Tool.

“Did You Miss One of Our Most Engaging Webinars Yet? American Heritage Lending recently hosted an exciting deep dive into our Bridge Star Loan, a powerful solution for borrowers looking to transition into their dream home. This was one of our most engaging webinars, featuring a dynamic Q&A session where we shared real-world examples of how we’ve funded some very unique scenarios. The discussion didn’t stop there, the overwhelming engagement and insightful questions expanded to our LTV Stacking Program, exploring how stacking Broker fees, discount points, and Realtor fees into the loan can provide even greater flexibility and value for your clients. As part of our Originate MORE! series (webinars, blogs, resources), we provide valuable insights, strategies, and tools to help you grow your business. Click here Originate More - ahlendtpo.com to view the webinar and other resources. We’re here to help, reach out to Jamie Gueltzow.”

New Maxwell Report: Nearly Half of U.S. Homeowners Worry Rising Taxes and Insurance Premiums Will Cost Them the American Dream. As climate disasters continue to make headlines, rising homeowners insurance premiums are becoming a major source of financial strain, according to a new report by Maxwell. Key findings show that 50% of homeowners question their ability to afford a home due to rising taxes and homeowners insurance premiums and that nearly 60% will consider selling in the next 5 years if rates continue to rise. Want to learn how rising homeowners insurance rates are shaping homeowners’ habits and what to expect from the housing market in the next few years? Click here to get your copy of Maxwell’s Homeowners Insurance Data Report.

Ncontracts’ On-Demand Webinar: 2025 Regulatory Expectations & Enforcement. What’s on the radar for examiners in 2025 under the new administration? How are evolving priorities shaping compliance risks for financial institutions? Ncontracts’ regulatory compliance experts recently explored how recent enforcement actions and shifting regulatory agendas are impacting institutions like yours. They covered topics including the compliance missteps drawing scrutiny and the evolving compliance landscape, plus actionable strategies to help your institution stay ahead. Other key topics discussed included the biggest lessons learned from 2024 enforcement, the potential impact of new administration, litigation risk, regulatory implementation deadlines, and supervisory priorities for 2025 exams. To access the on-demand webinar, click here.

Correspondent, Wholesale, and Retail News

United Wholesale reported numbers last week, with fourth quarter volume of $38.7 billion and a gain on sale margin of 110 basis points. CEO Mat Ishbia had some thoughts. “We think 2025 will be a better year. There are more houses for sale. And then on the refi side, you're talking about trillions of dollars or existing mortgages that just need about a quarter lower rate than we are right now; we're not far off. The ten-year Treasury is yielding 4.30 percent. I always tell people that 3.75 is where the money is at. But if it gets down closer to 4, you're going to start seeing some of this, and we are prepared. UWM is excited about the opportunity on refi’s. We're going to continue to dominate purchases, and we're excited for what's going to happen in 2025. We really think it's going to be heck of a year.”

A&D Mortgage, a leading provider of mortgage solutions for brokers, is excited to announce the expansion of its Temporary Rate Buydown Program to now include a 1-0 buydown option for both Conventional and Non-QM loans. The 1-0 buydown allows borrowers to reduce their interest rate by 1% for the first year before adjusting to the permanent rate for the remainder of the loan term. The temporary reduction is funded through seller, lender, or builder contributions, making it a valuable tool in today’s housing market.

Rate, the second largest retail lender in the U.S. and a leader in fintech mortgage solutions, announced the launch of its 1stResponder+ Program, a new initiative designed to provide financial peace of mind to active first responders and their families. Underscoring Rate’s commitment to those who serve and protect our communities every day, the 1stResonder+ program offers eligible first responders a complimentary, one-year accidental death insurance policy that covers their mortgage balance, up to $650,000, in the event that the first responder passes away in the line of duty. This program can be paired with Rate’s agency conventional, FHA, VA, and USDA product offerings, providing flexible options for borrowers who meet both loan program and product criteria.

Capital Markets

Say what you will about FHA delinquency rates (and they ain’t good), Ginnie Mae’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio outstanding grew to $2.71 trillion as of January 2025. In addition, Ginnie Mae issued $39.8 billion in total MBS, resulting in a net portfolio growth of $16.7 billion. Ginnie Mae facilitated the pooling and securitization of over 54,000 loans for first-time homebuyers year to date. The key highlights from the January issuance are $38.4 billion of Ginnie Mae II MBS and $1.35 billion of Ginnie Mae I MBS, including nearly $1.19 billion for multifamily housing loans.

Ginnie Mae I MBS is a more standardized security with a single interest rate across all loans, payments made to investors on the 15th of each month, typically consisting of single-lender pools, and primarily used for single-family home loans. Ginnie Mae II MBS offers more flexibility by allowing different interest rates within the same pool, making payments to investors on the 20th of each month, supporting multi-lender pools for greater diversity, and enabling larger and more varied loan originations. Ginnie Mae II is generally more liquid and commonly traded due to its flexibility, while Ginnie Mae I is more uniform and often used in specific cases like larger institutional investments. The month also featured pooling and securitization of loans for more than 118,000 households, including 55,000 first-time homebuyers. For detailed information on monthly MBS issuance, unpaid principal balance, Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit issuance, and a broader analysis of global market trends, visit Ginnie Mae Disclosure.

To close last week, we learned that personal incomes rose 0.9 percent in January, largely driven by cost-of-living adjustments in Social Security, while consumer spending fell 0.2 percent, primarily due to a 1.2 percent decline in goods purchases. Despite stronger incomes, consumer confidence dropped to an eight-month low in February, as concerns over inflation and uncertainty surrounding the administration’s policy shifts weighed on sentiment. Inflation eased slightly, with the core PCE Price Index rising 2.6 percent over the past twelve months, though expectations for continued progress remain low.

A reversal of goods deflation had already been underway before the announcement of new tariffs on Chinese imports, and core goods posted their first price increase since late 2023. Meanwhile, trade tensions continue to escalate, with President Trump announcing 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico set to take effect on March 4th, alongside a 10 percent tariff increase on Chinese imports. China has vowed to retaliate, signaling potential countermeasures such as tariffs or export restrictions, as President Xi Jinping maintains a long-term strategy to resist U.S. economic pressure.

The housing market remains especially challenged, with new home sales falling 10.5 percent in January to an annualized pace of 675k, though upward (8.9 percent) revisions to December’s figures softened the blow. Bad weather and high mortgage rates were cited as key factors. Year-over-year, sales were down just 1.1 percent, but rising inventory is a growing concern, now at its highest level since 2008 with 495k homes available. Builders have responded by increasing incentives to attract buyers, but higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand. Purchase mortgage activity shows signs of improvement, with agency mortgage issuance rising year-over-year across all Census regions. At the same time, broader economic concerns, including a rise in jobless claims and weakening consumer sentiment, have fueled anxieties about the trajectory of the U.S. economy.

This week’s economic calendar is packed with key data releases that will help shape the outlook on growth, inflation, and labor market conditions. It kicks off later this morning with the February ISM Manufacturing Index and January Construction Spending, both of which will provide insight into the strength of the industrial sector and investment trends. Wednesday brings a flurry of reports, which include the February ADP Employment Change, a closely watched precursor to Friday’s jobs report. Also on the docket are the February ISM Services Index and January Factory Orders, shedding light on service-sector activity and business investment, while crude oil inventory data could offer signals on energy demand and inflationary pressures.

On Thursday, attention turns to trade and labor costs, with the January Trade Balance, revised Q4 Productivity, and revised Q4 Unit Labor Costs offering a deeper look at the economy’s efficiency and inflationary pressures. Weekly jobless claims will also be in focus, alongside wholesale inventory data, which could hint at supply chain dynamics and business confidence. The week’s most anticipated release comes Friday with the February Nonfarm Payrolls report, providing the latest snapshot of labor market conditions, wage growth, and unemployment. Investors will also be watching the January Consumer Credit report for signs of shifting consumer borrowing trends. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices are slightly worse/down from Friday afternoon, and the 10-year yielding 4.26 after closing Friday at 4.23 percent.