“Buying eggs on the street and weed in the stores: the times they are changing.” Borrowers are certainly reacting to changes in rates as capital markets staffs are dusting off their renegotiation policies, explain early payoff penalties, and strategize on margins in volatile times (all of which are discussed in today’s Capital Markets Wrap at 3PM ET, presented by Polly). Of course, the stock market isn’t the economy, which is a good thing because, as of Friday, Barron’s calculated a $3 trillion reduction in the value of U.S. stocks since Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration. Originators hope that their clients aren’t tying their down payment funds to anything stock market-related, and worry that the mood of potential clients will deteriorate if the stock market keeps falling, which in turn would impact their enthusiasm for buying a home. (More in capital markets section.) Despite Fed Chair Powell’s comments, rate cut expectations have been pushed forward in recent weeks. As deterioration in the labor market builds, coupled with downside growth risks stemming from tariff and fiscal policies, markets are pricing in nearly three rate cuts this year, which is a significant increase from just one expected cut at this time last month. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TransUnion. TransUnion offers thousands of B2B solutions designed to address the unique needs of mortgage lenders, especially for their identity-focused, data-driven mortgage insights and solutions. Hear an interview with Mesa’s Maya Velasquez on how young people see the future of mortgage.)
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services
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MGIC’s self-employed borrower and rental income worksheets for tax year 2024 are now available! Editable and auto calculating, these worksheets help you analyze cash flow, liquidity, rental income, and comparative income. Download now! Dive deeper into analyzing self-employed borrowers with MGIC’s 8-module webinar series, breaking down complex SEB concepts into easily understood scenarios. Watch a recorded session or register for an upcoming live session today.
The Credit Optimization Playbook: Your Guide to Better Lending! Stop leaving deals on the table. Drawing from analysis of over 1 billion credit records, our comprehensive playbook shows you exactly how to spot credit improvement opportunities that others miss. You'll learn proven strategies to help borrowers qualify for better rates, reduce PMI, and eliminate loan level pricing adjustments, all in as little as 30 days. Whether you're working with borderline applicants or prime borrowers, these battle-tested techniques will help you close more loans and build lasting client relationships. Download now!
New Insurance Money Buyer Alert: Exclusive Non-QM & DSCR Liquidity from MAXEX. Next week, MAXEX adds exclusive Non-QM and DSCR flow liquidity from a Top 10 global asset manager, further enhancing secondary market access for these growing segments. As demand for Non-QM and DSCR surges, more originators are choosing MAXEX to scale their businesses with unmatched liquidity, competitive execution, and simplified transactions. Whether you need flow or bulk, delegated or non-delegated, MAXEX connects you to premier buyers, through-the-market pricing, and flexible guidelines, all in one platform. Don't miss out: visit our website to elevate your lending strategy.
With the housing market looking more and more uncertain, lenders must remove inefficiencies and change processes to thrive. Join Mortgage Machine’s Dan McGrew and DocMagic’s Brian Pannell for an exclusive webinar on Thursday, March 27, at 1:00 PM EST to explore the transformative impact of eMortgage technology. Learn how adopting eClosings, eNotes, and eVault can reduce cycle times, cut costs, and enhance borrower satisfaction, all while boosting your bottom line. Hear from industry experts on how the right tech stack can drive efficiency and ROI, even in today’s market. Register for the webinar to discover how eClosing technology can help you thrive.
Webcasts, Events, and Training This Week
A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future; and organizers can post their event!
Today the 11th at 11AM PT, origination takes the focus with Mortgage Pros as Audrey B. and Kevin C. address issues facing residential originators, today featuring Robbie Chrisman.
Don’t miss the joint CRMLA/Canopy Breakfast Event: Lender Panel “Impacts of the NAR Settlement, Tuesday, March 11, 9:30-11:00 at Canopy Realtor® Association. Join highly respected mortgage experts as they discuss the NAR settlement impact on Homebuyers, Lenders, and Realtors.
National MI’s upcoming March 2025 webinar sessions include Mastering LinkedIn for Mortgage Professionals, Session 3 - Brynne Tillman, today at 3 pm ET. Turn Your Pitch into a Success Story - Dr. Bruce Lund, March 13th at 1 pm ET. The 2025 NextGen Homebuyer Report: Key Insights for Winning More Business, Kristin Messerli, March 20th at 1 pm ET.
Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for Wednesday the 12ths 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One!
Register for Logan Finance’s webinar, Wednesday, March 12, 11:00 – 11:45 PDT., Your Compass to Success: Getting to the Non-QM Product Source, Presented by Alex Chavarria, Client Relations AVP. Get the tricks & tips to experience the best that Logan Finance products can offer including customizable white-label marketing materials.
Virtual FHA webinar, March 12 2:00 PM to 3:30 PM, provides FHA quality assurance results for calendar year 2024. It will focus on top findings from loan-level underwriting and lender-level operational reviews. The webinar concludes with a live question and answer session.
Join Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the GSEs) for one of four joint webinars to help lenders prepare for the UAD 3.6 and Forms Redesign. These sessions are intended for lenders preparing for the UAD 3.6 and Forms Redesign but are open to other impacted parties (Appraisal Software Vendors, UCDP Direct Integrators, Appraisal Management Companies, etc.). Webinar date: Thursday, Mar. 13 – 3 p.m. ET. Registration is on a first come, first served basis. If a session is filled, a waitlist will be enabled and waitlisted registrants will be notified if a slot becomes available.
Thursday will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET. Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests. You can click here to register for Thursday’s 3 PM ET show with Nikki Bialka, National Community Lending Strategy Manager at Fifth Third Bank.
Friday the 14th join Kevin Peranio, Christy Soukhamneut, Courtney Thompson, and Brian Vieaux on the The Last Word! KP, Brian, Christy, and Courtney will discuss This week on The Last Word, our panelists share their insights and opinions on the latest trends in the housing market, including rising inventory, longer days on market, and increasing contract cancellations. They also explore the ongoing insurance crisis, focusing on rising premiums, policy cancellations, and the challenges posed by flood zone inaccuracies. (Learn more here.)
Technology and innovation in residential lending are the focus of Now Next Later next Monday at 1pm ET.
Capital Markets
But is that what we want? Bond traders have been preparing for a potential downturn in the U.S. economy in light of recent chaotic tariff decisions, even as the Trump Administration seeks to deflect these concerns. When asked if he was expecting a recession, President Donald Trump replied that he "hates to predict things like that" and said "there is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big." Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has declared that "there's going to be no recession in America." He told NBC News Trump plans to grow the U.S. economy "in a way we've never grown before." If Trump's bringing growth to America, "I would never bet on recession, no chance," Lutnick and predicted that while some foreign-made products might be more expensive, American products will become cheaper.
But bond traders pay more attention to money and less to politicians. They are more pessimistic and are increasingly buying short-dated Treasuries, with the two-year yield (US2Y) declining sharply over the last two weeks. (The 2-year Treasury note is the most sensitive to interest rate outlooks.) This is despite inflation expectations remaining high due to tariffs and immigration policies, indicating that bond traders are focusing more on long-term growth concerns.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model expects the economy to contract 2.4 percent in the first quarter largely to a huge trade deficit at the start of the year, which subtracted approximately 3.5% from GDP, as U.S. businesses ramped imports to front run Trump's tariffs.
“Rally, rally, the pitcher’s name is…Donald? I thought it was Sally. The bond market experienced a big rally yesterday after President Trump said during a weekend TV interview that the economy is going through a "period of transition" and would not rule out a potential recession. By the time the dust settled, it resulted in the lowest settlement for the 2-year yield since early October while the 10-year yield returned back below its 200-day moving average of 4.23 percent. Inflation concerns, rising volatility and recession worries are dominating headlines, meaning sentiment has gone from exuberance about growth to "absolute despair." On the bright side(?), traders expect the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates to boost activity.
As I mentioned yesterday, inflation data is set to take center stage this week, shaping economic sentiment and market expectations. After sharp increases in the previous month, both headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings are expected to show a more moderate pace of growth in February, keeping annual inflation largely unchanged. Meanwhile, Producer Price Index (PPI) figures are likely to remain elevated, reflecting the continued impact of tariffs and trade uncertainties, with producer prices rising faster than consumer prices for a second consecutive month. On the fiscal front, the federal government may report its first budget surplus of the current fiscal year (we love silver linings). Small business optimism is expected to show a slight decline. Inflation expectations, as measured by both the New York Fed’s consumer survey and the University of Michigan’s sentiment index, are anticipated to trend higher, alongside a weaker outlook for overall economic conditions in early March.
NFIB small business optimism for February led off today’s economic calendar. U.S. small-business confidence dropped for a third straight month in February, wiping away much of the gains notched in the aftermath of President Donald Trump's election victory in November due to mounting concerns over the administration's trade policy. The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.1 points to 100.7 last month. Later today brings Redbook same store sales, JOLTS job openings, and Treasury activity that will be headlined by $58 billion 3-year notes and a buyback in 2- to 3-year coupons for up to $4 billion. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices roughly unchanged from Monday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.90, and the 10-year yielding 4.22 after closing yesterday at 4.21 percent.
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