“A government survey has shown that 91 percent of illegal immigrants come to this country so that they can see their own doctor.” On a more serious note, a Clever survey of real estate agents found that average commission rates have fallen 0.17 percent since 2023, to 5.32 percent, which is the lowest average in the past five years. Although commission rates ranged from 3.22 percent to 5.86 percent, the average decrease could be a sign of the early effects of the NAR settlement, which says that sellers are no longer required to pay the buyer's agent commission. Many in the financial services sector of our nation believe that the National Association of Realtors is bloated, has a lot of money, and needs restructuring. NAR is a lobbying powerhouse in DC (#2 in dollars spent) Any loan officer should be sure they’re in touch with agents that actually do business and have listings; many don’t. NAR has all kinds of stats. Among LOs, talk has quieted about the future of the buyer’s agent as real estate agents have figured out how to stay relevant: the internet has not replaced agents. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by ICE. ICE offers an interconnected digital mortgage ecosystem to help clients improve productivity, reduce costs, and deliver a meaningful customer experience. Today’s has an interview with Johnson Kendall Johnson Insurance’s Alexandra Bretschneider on best practices in risk management, the essentials of cyber insurance, the future of cybersecurity, and the significance of the Cyber COPE Insurance Certification (CCIC).)

Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services

Did you know in February, national house price growth slipped to its slowest pace since March 2012, amid ongoing affordability constraints and rising inventory? It's true! In case you missed it, First American Data & Analytics recently released its February Home Price Index (HPI) report where you can receive the most current insights into home price changes at the national, state, and metropolitan CBSA levels. In the report, First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming says, “While mortgage rates retreated in February, the softening home price growth reflects sales that went under contract earlier, including when demand softened amid mortgage rates that surpassed 7 percent. The good news is that slowing price growth is creating more favorable conditions for buyers in some markets, offering more potential opportunities for those looking, just in time for the spring home-buying season." Download a full copy of First American’s report to learn more valuable insights.

Save $1500 per loan with Maxwell Private Label Origination. Are high fixed costs eroding the profitability of your mortgage division? Rather than being at the mercy of the housing market's fluctuations, consider a cost-per-closed-loan structure that allows you to manage your expenses more flexibly. Maxwell Private Label Origination (PLO) offers everything you need to originate a mortgage, all at a simple, per-closed-loan cost. “We integrate the technology, personnel, and your mortgage products into a seamless, fully white-labeled experience. Schedule a call to learn how our cost structure can save the average PLO customer $1500 per loan and find out if this is the right fit for you.”

Correspondent and Wholesale Offerings

“This Women's History Month, eRESI would like to take a moment to recognize our team's incredibly talented women leaders and employees. Securing the right non-QM liquidity partner, especially during times of uncertainty, is essential for sustained growth and stability. At eRESI, we're dedicated to providing the tools and strategies lenders need to thrive in today's evolving mortgage landscape. Through collaborative partnerships, extensive non-QM knowledge, and a solid long-term capital base, we have the playbook for sustainable growth. Contact your eRESI Representative or email sales@eresimortgage.com to learn how we can help support your non-QM goals.”

Commercial Lending is experiencing hyper growth due to $1.5 trillion in ballooning loans over the next 3-5 years. There is a shortage of commercial mortgage brokers, and with banks liquidity issues, a perfect storm is brewing for the secondary market that will create massive deal flow. Chris Perez, Oceanview Commercial Lending, a 25-year veteran, is offering a new commercial platform for brokers which includes training and technology with access to thousands of lenders. This is a turnkey custom approach to integrate into your existing mortgage business. Schedule an appointment today or join the free weekly seminar every Wednesday 1PM EST. Adding commercial to your book of business is a way to expand your current product line while substantially increasing revenue.

The REMN REMEDY! Homeowners are sitting on record levels of equity, and REMN Wholesale is making it easier than ever to access it. REMN’s cutting-edge digital HELOC program offers a seamless, fast, and efficient way for borrowers to tap into their home equity. With an application that takes just minutes, lightning-fast approvals, and an average closing time of six days, REMN delivers the speed and simplicity today’s homeowners demand, whether they’re consolidating debt, funding home improvements, or covering other financial needs. As non-QM experts, REMN offers a full suite of flexible loan options, including DSCR, 1099 Only, P&L Only, Bank Statement, Asset Qualifier, Full Doc, and Foreign National programs, designed to meet the needs of today’s borrowers. Their tenured sales and operations teams bring unmatched industry expertise and exceptional service. REMN is only wholesale, 365 days a year, 24/7. REMN’s hiring experienced, motivated account executives nationwide. Contact Carl Markman, National Sales Director.

Looking to make a slam dunk with your pipeline?! LoanStream, a DBA of OCMBC, Inc., has Slam Dunk March Specials, they are hotter and better than ever! Up to 137.5 BPS Price Improvement on Non-QM (when combined with select) Non-QM: 25bps Price Improvement on all R&T and Cash-Out loans (all doc types, including CES and 5-8 DSCR), 37.5bps Price Improvement on all Purchase loans (all doc types, including 5-8 DSCR). Conventional Specials: 12.5bps Purchase Special for Conventional loans (can be combined with qualifying Select Specials; excludes Jumbo), 25bps Streamline/IRRRL Special, 37.5bps FHA/VA Purchase Special (can be combined with qualifying Select Special, includes DPA; excludes CalHFA). Take advantage now for loans locked 3/1/2025 through 3/31/2025. March 2025 Specials LoanStream Wholesale Mortgage Lending!

“VA Joint Loans: The Game-Changer You’re Not Using! Think VA loans are just for married couples? Think again. A commonly unknown fact is that veterans can buy homes with non-spouse family members, partners, or other eligible co-borrowers. That means more opportunities for your clients, and more deals for you. Stand out amongst your competitors by receiving the VA training you need! Join our VA Joint Loan Training and unlock the secrets to helping more veterans achieve homeownership. We’ll break down: Who qualifies for a VA Joint Loan, how loan entitlements are split among co-borrowers, and Real-world strategies to structure and close more deals for your veteran clients. When: Thursday, April 3rd, 11:30 AM - 12:00 PM PST. Veterans deserve more options. You deserve more closings. Register now by clicking here! Not approved with Kind Lending yet? Let’s fix that: click here to partner with us!”

Who’s Who in the Zoo

In mortgage banking, metrics are critically important, as are bragging rights. The MBA’s forecasts include dollar volume and units, but most people mention the former: $1 trillion, $2 trillion, $3 trillion. Would you rather do those three loans and breakeven on them or fund one profitable loan for the same total dollar amount? Most reputable analysts will focus on units, but volume talk habits are hard to break.

With that in mind, here are the “Top 50” lenders for 2024 based on dollar volume but also noting units. The data here shows who the actual lender is, e.g., these are the lenders of the money such as it is with HMDA. It does not include correspondent but does include retail and wholesale channels. This data is a blend of deed data, HMDA data, NMLS consumer direct data, census data, and mix of other sources to create the accuracy of the data overall. A big thank you to InGenius CEO Jeff Walton for this information, and questions about the InGenius product should be addressed to him! So here you go, for bragging rights on the dollar volume for the top 50 for ’24, with lender, units, and funded volume.

#1 United Wholesale Mortgage (252,334, $97,050,186,444), Quicken Loans/Rocket Mortgage (346,900, $96,195,327,332), CrossCountry Mortgage (107,009, $40,967,072,448), JPMorgan Chase Bank (57,030, $29,835,436,886), DHI Mortgage (84,615, $28,683,527,995), US Bank (55,904, $26,032,150,355), Guaranteed Rate (60,583, $25,253,677,861), LoanDepot (80,333, $25,116,198,844), Fairway Independent Mortgage (70,500, $24,797,495,884), Lennar/Eagle Home Mortgage (68,713, $24,455,997,235).

#11 Guild Mortgage (72,238, $23,224,440,018), Mortgage Research Center (70,487, $22,707,546,435), CMG Mortgage (54,007, $21,326,313,390), Movement Mortgage (58,592, $21,153,427,126), Bank of America (27,733, $20,111,108,309), Wells Fargo Bank (36,076, $19,752,707,829), Pennymac Loan Services (82,674, $18,645,410,035), Freedom Mortgage (48,798, $16,567,023,351), Navy FCU (62,790, $15,413,446,448), NewRez LLC/Caliber (56,657, $13,586,232,981).

#21 New American Funding (44,781, $13,355,683,855), Citibank NA (10,150, $11,452,407,241), Pulte Mortgage (22,899, $9,642,202,113), Morgan Stanley Private Bank (9,426, $9,536,226,867), Mutual of Omaha Mortgage (20,425, $9,535,293,410), American Pacific Mortgage (21,708, $7,747,327,007), Nationstar Mortgage (38,388, $7,487,097,633), Union Home Mortgage (24,874, $7,312,605,858), Prosperity Home Mortgage (19,586, $7,112,079,014), Citizens Bank, NA (16,888, $7,109,905,063).

#31 Primelending (21,705, $7,070,837,510), TD Bank NA (22,698, $6,965,711,533), NVR Mortgage Finance (19,183, $6,915,804,102), NFM Inc. (17,881, $6,864,171,411), Paramount Residential Mortgage Group (17,942, $6,818,659,113), Kind Lending (16,953, $6,668,092,554), BMO Harris Bank (7,082, $6,620,196,197), PNC Bank (14,464, $6,483,444,920), The Loan Store (15,575, $6,364,623,097).

#41 Truist Bank (14,501, $6,277,052,479), The Huntington National Bank (24,277, $6,102,903,716), Finance of America Reverse (6,334, $6,077,500,898), Guaranteed Rate Affinity (13,950, $5,785,191,878), Provident Funding (13,875, $5,740,968,717), Fifth Third Bank (26,008, $5,720,020,156), OCMBC Inc. (12,688, $5,320,828,960), Flagstar Bank (16,455, $5,240,646,411), and KBHS Home Loans (12,314, $4,889,692,015).

Once again, a big thank you to InGenius CEO Jeff Walton for this information. If you have questions or concerns, please email him.

Capital Markets

Do you find it prudent that investors are largely wagering that the U.S. economy will prove to be resilient? So far, signs of an economic slowdown are primarily emerging in “soft” data, such as business sentiment surveys that indicate increased caution in hiring and investment. Workers are expressing heightened concerns over job security, though “hard” data has yet to fully confirm these worries. February’s job growth remained solid, and while retail sales dipped in January, they bounced back last month, albeit at a weaker pace than expected. Economic shifts often take time to materialize in tangible data, as businesses and consumers typically adjust behavior gradually. Moreover, declining confidence does not always translate into spending cutbacks, as seen during the Biden administration when consumer sentiment was low, yet overall spending remained resilient. In today’s politically charged climate, sentiment indicators may be less reliable, further complicating the economic outlook.

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the decision-making arm of the Federal Reserve, left interest rates unchanged, a move that aligned with market expectations. However, the updated dot plot revealed lower GDP forecasts, higher core PCE inflation estimates, and no adjustments to interest rate projections. The real market-moving moment came when Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his post-meeting press conference, downplayed the inflationary effects of tariffs imposed by President Trump, describing them as “transitory.”

Investors interpreted the overall tone of the Fed meeting as dovish, suggesting the possibility of rate cuts in the near future. Consequently, mortgage-backed securities continued to rally, driving rates lower as the Fed signaled a reduction in quantitative tightening and acknowledged that hawkish risks, such as inflation and labor market concerns, are largely counterbalanced by dovish risks, including geopolitical instability and fluctuating resource supply-demand dynamics.

Despite market fluctuations, futures trading currently suggests an 82 percent probability that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at the May 7 FOMC meeting, though there is a 63 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut on June 18, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Mortgage rates, closely tied to supply and demand in the bond market, have reacted positively to the Fed’s decision to retain U.S. Treasuries on its balance sheet rather than allowing them to mature. This move helps stabilize bond prices and suppresses Treasury yield increases, fostering a sense of market calm. A similar decision last June led to improved bond pricing for months, and recent market movements suggest that investors are once again pricing in those benefits. As a result, bond prices have climbed while yields have declined, reflecting growing confidence in a more accommodative monetary policy environment.

The March FOMC meeting also delivered revised economic projections that indicate a more challenging outlook. While the median forecast still calls for 50-basis points in rate cuts this year, four committee members now anticipate no changes at all in 2025. The latest projections show slowing GDP growth, higher inflation, and rising unemployment compared to the Fed’s December estimates.

Meanwhile, the economic data presents a mixed picture: February retail sales rebounded from January’s decline but remained flat for the year, while the housing sector continues to struggle due to affordability constraints. Industrial production saw a boost in February, possibly as manufacturers rushed to get ahead of upcoming tariffs and supply chain disruptions. However, the broader economic landscape points to growing concerns about stagflation, which would force the Fed into the difficult position of managing both elevated inflation and sluggish growth. With rate cuts still on the table but uncertainty mounting, the central bank must navigate a delicate balance in the months ahead.

This week’s economic calendar includes month-end supply and key data for assessing risks to the economy and inflation, and of course the potential for some unexpected ones from President Trump: based on remarks from Friday, it seems likely there will be more regarding the April 2 reciprocal tariffs. The week opened with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. Later today brings S&P Global PMI March flashes, and some short-duration Treasury bill auctions.

Key events over the remainder of the week include home price indices for January, new home sales for February, consumer confidence for March, and the $69 billion 2-year note auction tomorrow, the $28 billion 2-year FRN and $70 billion 5-year note auctions on Wednesday, advance economic indicators for February, final Q4 GDP and the $44 billion 7-year auction on Thursday, and Fed-favorite core PCE price index and final March consumer sentiment on Friday. There are several Fed speakers on the docket as well.

We begin the week with Agency MBS prices worse about .125 from Friday, the 2-year yielding 3.99, and the 10-year yielding 4.29 after closing last week at 4.25 percent.