This morning I head to Orange County, which has the same population as Arkansas or Nevada, for the CAMP conference where the economy will be discussed. The stock market is not the economy. Lower mortgage rates? Splendid. Critics would say, “No inventory + lower rates = even more pressure in the starter home market for people with jobs.” Meanwhile, capital markets groups everywhere have dusted off their renegotiation policies and are busy reminding loan officers and brokers what EPO stands for: Early Pay Off. When investors buy mortgage loans, and the servicing rights to those loans, they expect to have them on their books for a while, not paying off four months later. Originators always seem puzzled why, when rates move higher, investors are very hesitant about paying 103 or 104 for a loan with a rate above the prevailing market. This is why: to be blunt, they kiss this 3- or 4-point premium goodbye when rates drop. The good news for lenders, and vendors, is that because so many costs have been eliminated, any modest increase in profits might give a big boost to their profitability. (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by PHH Mortgage. If you are looking for a Correspondent Lending partner or an experienced, award-winning subservicer who can manage your forward and reverse, residential and commercial, and performing and non-performing loans, look no further than PHH. Hear an interview today with Private Eyes Background Checks’ Sandra James on how verification services are helping originators close loans faster.)

Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services

How much ROI could you gain by automating product, pricing, and eligibility without having to leave Encompass®? With ICE PPE, the only Encompass-native product and pricing engine, you can: search, compare and lock programs easily, program rules and custom fields, and enjoy worry-free maintenance of investor programs and guidelines. Click here to learn more about ICE PPE today.

Commercial Lending is experiencing hyper growth due to $1.5 trillion in ballooning loans over the next 3-5 years. There is a shortage of commercial mortgage brokers, and with banks liquidity issues, a perfect storm is brewing for the secondary market that will create massive deal flow. Chris Perez, Envestion Commercial Lending, a 25-year veteran, is offering a broker partnership, turnkey with training, custom web site, tools, and marketing / leads. He is looking for 5-10 brokers per state where they are given the marketing and leads, take the application, and then turn the commercial loan over for processing, underwriting, and closing, all while continuing to do your normal residential business. Schedule an appointment today to see if you qualify or join the free weekly seminar every Wednesday 1PM EST. Adding commercial to your book of business is a way to expand your current product line while substantially increasing revenue.

What could your business do with the time saved by reducing payment processing? That’s the question customers can answer after switching to Western Alliance Bank Lockbox service. Western Alliance Bank estimates exception work may be reduced by as much as 80%. Tracking down exceptions takes a serious time commitment. Western Alliance Bank’s sophisticated lockbox technology automates the process, historically bringing exceptions below 5% for many of their clients, compared to the industry average of 30% to 40%, and allowing you to invest in human capital where it can help your business grow. It’s just one part of a complete suite of Cash Management tools that Western Alliance Bank’s Specialized Mortgage Services Group can customize to empower independent mortgage bankers to conduct business seamlessly. Get all the details on Western Alliance Bank’s Lockbox, or reach out to find out more about what its team can do for you. Western Alliance Bank, Member FDIC.

Customers always win with Sagent: 2Q24 rewind! Another successful quarter for Sagent customers, and what better way to make a splash than with a quick and fun highlight reel. Sagent’s relentless work to support American homeowners and buyers is what motivates the entire team at Sagent to work harder and faster as they innovate for the future. Check out this quick and fun recap reel highlighting all their customer wins. Plus, they’ve included a Fast Forward into 3Q, giving you a glimpse into what Sagent is up to and where they’ll be during conference season. Don’t get too comfy poolside, because they have a hot Q3 ahead! Check out the blog, watch the reel, and let Sagent know your thoughts.

“Originator Connect is next week in Las Vegas. Freedom Mortgage is hosting a panel of successful mortgage brokers sharing their secrets to help other brokers build their 4EVER mortgage business. Freedom Mortgage is 4EVER Wholesale, and this panel is one of the ways Freedom can help serious brokers build their 4EVER business. The panel is Friday at 3 PM at Planet Hollywood on the Las Vegas strip, so if you’re in the area, stop by and invite your associates to join us. Originator Connect is inviting you and your readers to attend for free. Click here and use the code FDFREE.”

Stand out with a top-ranked mortgage point of sale customized for your business. In today’s competitive mortgage marketplace, customizing workflows and borrower experience is crucial to differentiation. With the industry-first configurability of Maxwell Point of Sale, lenders can define workflows for any mortgage product, while configuring triggers and business rules to align the borrower experience to operational processes. Maxwell Point of Sale also features more than 60 third-party integrations, allowing lending teams to seamlessly connect with other vital pieces of their workflow, from credit and verifications to pricing and disclosures. It’s no wonder that Maxwell Point of Sale is the top ranked mortgage point of sale on Capterra with 4.8/5 stars. Want to learn more? Let us know and we’ll show you what Maxwell can do for you and your borrowers.

When you use Truv for verifying income and employment, you’re getting data directly from the source. It’s in real-time, every time. Lenders utilize Truv reports which may be submitted for assessment of eligibility for representation and warranty relief by Freddie Mac’s Loan Product Advisor® (LPASM) asset and income modeler (AIM) and Fannie Mae’s DU® validation service. Eliminate fraud, reduce repurchase risk, and accelerate loan closing with Truv VOIE. What are you waiting for? Get started today.

Events, Training, and Webinars

A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future.

Monday, 5 August 9:00 AM - Tuesday, 6 August at 6:00 PM PDT join the California Association of Mortgage Professionals on August 5th -August 6th for its Annual Summer CAMP at Hyatt Regency Newport Beach, 1007 Jamboree Road, Newport Beach, California. Receive $100 off the cost to attend by using CAMP2024 discount code at final checkout. Top industry speakers sharing cutting-edge strategies and insights. Networking with fellow brokers and building valuable connections. Educational workshops on growing your business, diversifying clientele, and staying compliant. Free CAMP membership for those attending the conference (not for renewals). Registration is only $49 when using the CAMP2024 discount code. Includes your meals.

Did you know that you can elevate your business by leveraging strong realtor connections? On Aug. 8, at 1 p.m. EST, join A&D Mortgage Master Moves: Top California Realtors Share Secrets for Mortgage Brokers webinar and learn how to foster successful partnerships, including: best practices, Effective communication strategies, and Key tips to ensure a seamless home-buying experience.

Tuesdays at 11am PT, two veteran LOs discuss all things mortgage with Industry Leaders: Mortgage Pros 411 with Audrey Boissonou and Kevin Casey.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for Wednesday’s 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One.

Wake up and learn with CRMLA as Jordan Goldberg of Xactus discusses the latest topics in the Credit World for Lending on Thursday, August 8th at 8:30 am.

Thursday, August 8th, will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET… Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests.

The California Mortgage Expo returns to San Diego on Thursday, August 8, bringing in the industry's best, with educational sessions that show you how to make more money, be a better sales pro, and keep your pipeline full.

Friday the 9th tune in to The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown with Melissa Langdale covering current events in the mortgage market for 30 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET.

Last Word, Fridays at 10 a.m. PT/1 p.m. ET: Fridays with Kevin Peranio and Brian Vieaux is your ultimate destination for incisive analysis and spirited discussions on the hottest topics affecting the mortgage sector each week. Hosted by industry veterans, the show delivers expert opinions, forecasts, and critical insights to keep you informed and ahead of the curve. Tune in for a comprehensive and engaging analysis of the week's most important mortgage industry news, providing viewers with the knowledge and insights they need to make informed decisions in a rapidly changing market.

MBA Education Webinar: Real-World Artificial Intelligence: The TRUE Story, August 13, 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM ET.

Join me and other leaders in the Michigan mortgage industry at the MMLA Annual Lending Conference, August 14 – 16 at Boyne Mountain Resort. Go to www.mmla.net for all the registration and sponsorship information. I hope to see you there!

View all available National MI August 2024 webinar sessions.

Join Tabrasa/Mortgage Market Guide's Bill Bodnar for a fun, fast-paced 30-minute discussion on the economy, markets, and interest rates as the second half of 2024 approaches. Wednesday, August 14 at 11:00 a.m. is your chance to hear about rates using sound fundamentals that’s perfect for loan officers and sales managers looking to fine tune their projections for 2024. Bring your questions as there will be time allotted for Q&A.

As the landscape of homebuying evolves, understanding the unique preferences and challenges faced by Generation Z is crucial for mortgage professionals. Join the Texas Mortgage Bankers Association upcoming monthly education webinar, Thursday, August 15 at 11:30 am, featuring a panel of industry experts who will share best practices and strategies to effectively engage and support Gen Z homebuyers.

Join an exclusive webinar to discover Plaza’s comprehensive Reverse Mortgage file flow process, from initial loan scenario to final funding. Learn how its dedicated Reverse Mortgage Team supports you every step of the way, ensuring you set clear expectations for your senior clients and achieve smooth, successful closings. Register for Originating a Reverse Mortgage with Plaza: File Flow from Start to Finish, Thursday, August 15, 11:00 AM PT / 2:00 PM ET.

FHA is providing a Free, Virtual Training Single Single-Family Neighborhood Watch on August 14th, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM (Eastern). An overview of the Single Family Neighborhood Watch system, focusing on its use and functionality; specifically, querying and available reporting options. Additionally, this webinar will highlight the FHA Credit Watch Termination Initiative and cover all the system features available to FHA-approved mortgagees.

Have you heard about (read: registered for) some of our expanded media offerings? Chrisman Commentary is pleased to bring you a variety of video shows hosted on Zoom throughout the week. Take your pick: We have a show focused on technology and innovation (Now Next Later Mondays at 1pm ET, presented by BILT Rewards), origination (Mortgage Pros Tuesdays at 2pm ET), big-name interviews (Mortgage Matters Wednesdays at 2pm ET, presented by Lenders One), headline news (The Big Picture Thursday’s at 3pm ET), opinion (Last Word Fridays at 1pm ET), advisory services (Advisory Angle first Tuesday of the month at 2pm ET, presented by STRATMOR Group), capital markets (Capital Markets Wrap second Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET, presented by Polly), regulation and compliance (Regulation Central third Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET), and reaching the next generation of homeowners (Mortgages with Millennials last Tuesday of the month at 1pm ET, presented by The Mortgage Collaborative). (If you don’t see a presenting sponsor, please reach out to Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt to inquire about opportunities.)

Capital Markets

In case you haven’t heard, the 2-year and 10-year yields are now the same, and if you haven’t heard, a weak July jobs report fueled fears the Federal Reserve has already waited too long to lower interest rates. U.S. hiring slowed markedly last month, falling short of nearly all economists’ forecasts with just 114k jobs created (and the prior two months’ numbers were revised down, which has been a trend this year). The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest level in nearly three years. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moved decisively lower in the aftermath of the report, falling 14 basis points. However, some aspects of the report may have been distorted by Hurricane Beryl and may rebound in August.

Friday’s payroll figures cap off a week of disappointing data which heightened concerns that the U.S. economy is at risk of moving toward a recession. Coupled with tensions on the other side of the globe, bond yields should continue to trend lower. While the Fed doesn’t want to overreact to the numbers, the risks of a hard landing are “clearly rising.” Following last week’s monetary policy meeting which concluded as expected with no changes to the policy rate, Fed Chairman Powell noted that both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, price stability and maximum employment, are in better balance.

The next FOMC meeting is in September and the markets fully expect the Fed to begin dialing back its restrictive monetary policy. Rate cut expectations have increased significantly with the fed funds futures market now seeing about a 75 percent implied likelihood of a 50-basis point rate cut in September, up from 22 percent before the report and 11 percent at the beginning of last week. Some “experts” are now projecting three rate cuts prior to the end of the year. Mortgages should perform well with the Fed preparing for a September cut, but flows have been mixed, particularly as investors are concerned about the aforementioned geopolitical issues in the Middle East and Latin America.

Following last week’s event-filled calendar, this week is more about supply. Treasury conducts the Quarterly Refunding with $125 billion auctioned over Tuesday to Thursday. Data this week is more of the second-tier variety including updates on non-manufacturing PMIs, trade, consumer credit, and inventories. Fedspeak returns following last week’s FOMC meeting, where market participants will look for clues regarding the re-pricing of rate cuts, though, will likely have to wait for significant banter until the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 22 to 24. Regarding MBS, July agency prepayments will be released after Tuesday's close and into the evening, while Class A 48-hours is on Friday.

Today’s calendar gets under way with the resumption of Fedspeak: Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee is delivering remarks currently and San Francisco Fed President Daly will take the stage this afternoon. Final July S&P Global services PMIs are the next up data point and will be followed by ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July, and the Employment Trends Index for July. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices better by about .250 from Friday’s close, the 2-year down to 3.72, nd 10-year yielding 3.69 after closing last week at 3.79 percent.